2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Windspeed]

If nothing else, at least it is a feature to track and watch. There is nothing much to add beyond the most recent posts. Spot on. It's a mid-level system / pulsing MCS. Let's see if it will ramp up again this evening. We need persistent deep convection to drive inflow and get vorticity to resolve in the low levels. That happening out over the GOM sooner than later determines if we get a TC or just beneficial rains to the upper peninsula. Again, it's something interesting to watch, and we may not get many of these this season.

[NavarreDon]

We have orange,

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
surface low is forming over the eastern Gulf of America. However,
the associated winds remain light, and the showers and thunderstorms
are still disorganized. Gradual development of this system is
possible, and it could become a tropical depression while it moves
slowly northward or north-northwestward during the next few days.
Interests along the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system as
it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during
the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


.

[vortex95]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. The RRFS, which will replace NAM, has been developing this into a TS.

2. 0Z UKMET moves up TCG to 8PM Saturday and is stronger (winds almost to H strength Tue AM, which is high for the typically conservatively low UK) as it moves mainly slowly W to the NW GOM:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 27.1N 83.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.07.2026 24 27.1N 83.8W 1011 27
1200UTC 19.07.2026 36 27.6N 84.5W 1008 30
0000UTC 20.07.2026 48 28.0N 85.0W 1004 30
1200UTC 20.07.2026 60 27.9N 85.1W 1002 33
0000UTC 21.07.2026 72 28.0N 85.4W 999 37
1200UTC 21.07.2026 84 28.9N 85.5W 997 46
0000UTC 22.07.2026 96 29.1N 85.4W 993 56
1200UTC 22.07.2026 108 29.6N 85.4W 995 59
0000UTC 23.07.2026 120 29.2N 86.1W 996 53
1200UTC 23.07.2026 132 28.6N 87.2W 999 44
0000UTC 24.07.2026 144 28.0N 88.6W 998 41
1200UTC 24.07.2026 156 27.6N 89.9W 999 39
0000UTC 25.07.2026 168 29.0N 91.4W 1002 35

I don't know if the RRFS can handle TCs properly.  This is a good question for the modelers. 

The NAM never was designed for TCs we know.  The RRFS seems overdone, esp. given by 72 hr a strong deformation shear zone get established along the nrn Gulf Coast, and the system gets torn apart aloft.

The HRRR through 48 hr does show it becoming a TD, but again, I am not sure how good mesoscale models not specifically designed for TCs, such as the HAFS and HWRF, do here.  The 2m wind field looks choppy and pock-marked on the HRRR by 36 hr.  The HWRF from 18z today shows sig development having is 992 mb by 60 hr, but that appears overdone.  GFS/ECMWF suggest weak TD status before the environment becomes unfavorable.
 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad 
surface low is located over the eastern Gulf of America.  The 
associated winds are currently light, and the shower and 
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized.  However, gradual 
development of this system is possible, and it could become a 
tropical depression while it moves slowly northward or 
north-northwestward during the next few days.  Interests along the 
Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia 
should monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to 
bring heavy rain to portions of that region during the next several 
days.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to 
investigate the system on Sunday, if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
  

[GaWx]

By the way, the 12Z UKMET was the 4th full run (full runs are at 0Z/12Z) that developed this into a mainly W moving full fledged TS. The last 2 runs developed it into a TD by early tomorrow morning! Landfall near LA/TX border:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  18 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 27.1N  84.9W

 

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 19.07.2026   24  27.5N  84.9W     1010            25

    0000UTC 20.07.2026   36  28.1N  85.2W     1006            28

    1200UTC 20.07.2026   48  28.2N  86.0W     1004            30

    0000UTC 21.07.2026   60  28.1N  86.1W     1002            33

    1200UTC 21.07.2026   72  28.4N  86.1W     1000            38

    0000UTC 22.07.2026   84  29.2N  86.2W      997            50

    1200UTC 22.07.2026   96  29.6N  86.9W      998            51

    0000UTC 23.07.2026  108  29.3N  87.8W      996            52

    1200UTC 23.07.2026  120  28.9N  88.8W      999            44

    0000UTC 24.07.2026  132  28.7N  90.0W      999            40

    1200UTC 24.07.2026  144  29.0N  92.0W     1001            36

    0000UTC 25.07.2026  156  29.3N  94.2W     1004            37

    1200UTC 25.07.2026  168              CEASED TRACKING

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: 5th run in a row of having a TD (TCG tomorrow) as well as a TS (upgraded Mon night) but doesn’t get as strong as prior 2 runs; mainly WNW movement to SE LA Wed night

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 27.4N 85.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 12 27.4N 85.2W 1011 23
0000UTC 20.07.2026 24 28.0N 85.1W 1008 25
1200UTC 20.07.2026 36 27.7N 85.5W 1007 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 48 28.0N 85.4W 1005 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 60 28.6N 86.1W 1004 36
0000UTC 22.07.2026 72 28.9N 86.6W 1004 38
1200UTC 22.07.2026 84 29.7N 88.3W 1004 46
0000UTC 23.07.2026 96 28.9N 89.5W 1006 36
1200UTC 23.07.2026 108 29.4N 90.7W 1009 35
0000UTC 24.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

[GaWx]

 The 0Z Euro is the 1st one that I can recall with TCG of 91L. It even gets to borderline TS status S of the W FL panhandle Tue night.

[GaWx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of 
America continues to become better defined and the associated shower 
and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued 
gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly 
northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast 
from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor 
the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings 
could be required for portions of the area later today. In 
addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions 
of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air 
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate 
the low pressure area later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[GaWx]

I just started a thread on Invest 91L/potential Bertha:

 

[Kmlwx]

The GFS has been pretty insistent something develops and heads at least in the general direction of the CONUS. We'll see.

[MJO812]

17 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

The GFS has been pretty insistent something develops and heads at least in the general direction of the CONUS. We'll see.

It was an outlier and now lost it. 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET has no TC but it does have this vigorous TW on Thu evening moving NW and then NNW from there bringing convection into the NFL/GA/SC coast on Fri 8/7. I may have to watch this. Hopefully it ends up nothing more than this or a low end TS at the very worst:

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

12Z UKMET has no TC but it does have this vigorous TW on Thu evening moving NW and then NNW from there bringing convection into the NFL/GA/SC coast on Fri 8/7. I may have to watch this. Hopefully it ends up nothing more than this or a low end TS at the very worst:

One thing that has been consistent,  Well-defined circuation at 700/500 w/ a pool of high PWATs, so that may eventually add to rainfall up and down the E Coast.

 

[GaWx]

I don’t know whether or not it is clueless, but the new (8/1) Euro Atlantic seasonal forecast for Sept and beyond isn’t as inactive as what the Apr-June versions showed, which were below normal. This new one, similar to the July run, is actually pretty close to the 1993-2025 climate mean for Sept+ with 8.9 TS and 3.3 MH:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seaso ... 2608010000

[tiger_deF]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

I don’t know whether or not it is clueless, but the new (8/1) Euro Atlantic seasonal forecast for Sept and beyond isn’t as inactive as what the Apr-June versions showed, which were below normal. This new one, similar to the July run, is actually pretty close to the 1993-2025 climate mean for Sept+ with 8.9 TS and 3.3 MH:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seaso ... 2608010000

This is fascinating, especially given how sleepy the global models are out to the bell-ringing date, and the documented effects of Ninos shutting down late-season development. Perhaps it suggests a brief burst of high activity during the peak of the season?

[Newman]

Euro and EuroAI ensembles both hinting at some development towards the end of next week with the next wave moving off Africa. Conditions will be very hostile in the Caribbean, as one would expect in a Nino year. Should a brief TS develop, it won't last past the Lesser Antilles. Not much going for the Atlantic.

[WxWatcher007]

11 hours ago, Newman said:

Euro and EuroAI ensembles both hinting at some development towards the end of next week with the next wave moving off Africa. Conditions will be very hostile in the Caribbean, as one would expect in a Nino year. Should a brief TS develop, it won't last past the Lesser Antilles. Not much going for the Atlantic.

Looks like a window may be opening in the Tropical Atlantic so some development may very well be possible, but as you said…it gets real hostile real fast further west. 

 

On 8/5/2026 at 10:23 AM, GaWx said:

I don’t know whether or not it is clueless, but the new (8/1) Euro Atlantic seasonal forecast for Sept and beyond isn’t as inactive as what the Apr-June versions showed, which were below normal. This new one, similar to the July run, is actually pretty close to the 1993-2025 climate mean for Sept+ with 8.9 TS and 3.3 MH:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seaso ... 2608010000

I just don’t see it. We’re going to have windows but man, the overall environment looks anemic at best for any activity.

[GaWx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Tuesday. Some development of this system will be possible during
the middle to latter part of next week while it moves westward
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

0Z UKMET 
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.6N 33.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2026 132 12.6N 33.9W 1011 34
0000UTC 14.08.2026 144 13.0N 38.3W 1011 28
1200UTC 14.08.2026 156 14.1N 42.3W 1011 32
0000UTC 15.08.2026 168 15.4N 47.2W 1012 36

[NorthHillsWx]

MDR looks pretty dang active next 10 days. Caribbean is extremely hostile but there looks to be a window over MDR and possibly even north of islands. Could be a situation where anything that forms would have to thread the needle but there may be a path where something gets further west if it tracks north of the islands. Far too soon to tell but the development signal is very high at this point 

[GaWx]

12Z UK
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.0N 53.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2026 96 12.0N 53.2W 1012 26
0000UTC 13.08.2026 108 12.5N 56.2W 1010 28
1200UTC 13.08.2026 120 12.7N 60.3W 1010 29
0000UTC 14.08.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

MDR looks pretty dang active next 10 days. Caribbean is extremely hostile but there looks to be a window over MDR and possibly even north of islands. Could be a situation where anything that forms would have to thread the needle but there may be a path where something gets further west if it tracks north of the islands. Far too soon to tell but the development signal is very high at this point 

I wonder if the GFS still has its TC spin-up bias in the long range?  It looks more optimistic that the ECMWF

Very dry at low-levels currently in the MDR, and will the dust outbreaks decrease?  TCs can form in such hostile MDR conditions, but they are typical quite small and struggle.  We saw this in the previous two years a lot. 
 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 hours ago, vortex95 said:

I wonder if the GFS still has its TC spin-up bias in the long range?  It looks more optimistic that the ECMWF

Very dry at low-levels currently in the MDR, and will the dust outbreaks decrease?  TCs can form in such hostile MDR conditions, but they are typical quite small and struggle.  We saw this in the previous two years a lot. 
 

Yea it’s in no way a primed environment but simply having an active storm out there this year is going to be an atmospheric accomplishment 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 lemons 

[WxWatcher007]

Been so busy at work I haven’t had time to post, but agree with everything above. The GDM opens a window and it looks legit, aided with a passing CCKW. Far from pristine but you get something to develop and track north of the Antilles and you get a decent ACE producer. 

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

2 lemons 

 Now the further E one is orange (40% within 7 days). The 0Z UKMET is back to developing this (12Z TC was from the further W TW):

 

0Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 9.3N 35.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2026 96 9.1N 36.4W 1010 23
1200UTC 13.08.2026 108 9.8N 38.0W 1010 28
0000UTC 14.08.2026 120 11.1N 40.2W 1010 28
1200UTC 14.08.2026 132 12.6N 42.5W 1010 32
0000UTC 15.08.2026 144 15.0N 45.6W 1011 33
1200UTC 15.08.2026 156 17.0N 49.5W 1011 37
0000UTC 16.08.2026 168 18.3N 53.4W 1012 41

[vortex95]

18 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Yea it’s in no way a primed environment but simply having an active storm out there this year is going to be an atmospheric accomplishment 

"Atmosphere accomplishment?"  Great term!  Alliteration to boot!

Last year, all the hurricanes except Melissa got strong and peaked in intensity outside the deep tropics (N of ~20N).  Even Melissa struggled w/ shear for 4 days before getting its act together.   And in 2024, the same thing occurred basically (Beryl the only classic MDR system).

The MDR has had some issues in recent years, even when the overall pattern has been quite favorable for an active season.  And besides Beryl, no long-tracked, classic Cabo Verde hurricanes in 2024 or 2025.  When I say "classic Cabo Verde", I am talking something like Isabel from 2003 or Ivan from 2004.

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Been so busy at work I haven’t had time to post, but agree with everything above. The GDM opens a window and it looks legit, aided with a passing CCKW. Far from pristine but you get something to develop and track north of the Antilles and you get a decent ACE producer. 

The NWPAC is sure going strong so far this season (S-T-D 204% of avg ACE), but so far the E/CPAC is just about avg S-T-D.  Typically, this basin is near record active in a very strong El Nino year. 

1982 30 depressions and 23 of those NS.  HI had one its few hurricane direct hits from Iwa this season.

1997 24 depressions and 19 of those became NS (Linda this season was the most intense EPAC TC until Patricia in 2015).

2015 31 depressions (a record), 26 of them NS, (tied its record), 16 hurricanes, and set a new record w/ 11 major hurricanes.

However, 1991 was close to avg, so it shows not every very strong El Nino results in the same sensible wx in a region every time.  And 1991 for the Atlantic only had 35 ACE, which is the 6th lowest ACE for this basin since the satellite era began.

A general rule of thumb I use is that when he Atlantic is active, the EPAC is typically inactive, and vice-versa, but it does not work every time!  Also, it is hard for every TC basin in the world to be suppressed in active in a given year.  At least one is above avg when all other can be below.  However, 1977 was a year when it was suppressed globally in all TC basins.