Severe Weather Thread 2026

[goldsborosnow]

Parts of the area experienced severe weather yesterday and Monday is looking interesting.

[olafminesaw]

[goldsborosnow]

Day 3 Enhanced Risk for much of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia. 

[goldsborosnow]

Discussion from SPC:

[eyewall]

...Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...
   Primary changes this outlook are to add a 45 total severe
   probability along with minor northeast and southeast expansion to
   the categorical risk areas. Portions of the region, centered on SC
   to MD, may warrant an upgrade to a level 4/Moderate Risk in later
   outlooks.

   A large and deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward out
   of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians and into the Mid
   Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with an expansive area of strong to
   intense wind fields aloft. A deep cyclone will move from Lower MI
   into QC, with an occluding cold front arcing southeast across the
   northern Appalachians, then south-southwest into the northern Gulf.
   This front will clear all but the FL Peninsula by Monday evening.

   Ahead of the front, seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized
   by 60s surface dew points will spread northward from the eastern
   Gulf/western Atlantic. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z
   Monday, low-topped along the Upper OH Valley to central Appalachian
   portion of the front to deep convection in the lee of the southern
   Appalachians to eastern FL Panhandle. A diurnal uptick in storm
   intensity, including potential for semi-discrete supercells ahead of
   the front, should occur from north FL to the Carolina Piedmont.
   Further intensification is anticipated midday into the afternoon as
   a confined corridor of moderate buoyancy likely develops just ahead
   of morning storms.

   Enlarged low-level hodograph curvature, in conjunction with
   favorable elongation of the mid/upper hodograph, should foster a mix
   of broken supercells south with line-embedded supercells in the
   reinvigorated QLCS north. With such intense 700-mb flow aptly timed
   with the diurnal heating cycle overlying rich low-level moisture,
   setup could yield an expansive severe weather day, including strong
   tornadoes and significant damaging winds. The degree of
   boundary-layer heating, as well as timing of convection that may
   outpace the front late D2 into early D3, will play key roles in how
   intense severe magnitudes may become. At present, the most likely
   corridor for significant/widespread severe appears centered on the
   eastern Piedmont to coastal plain from SC to MD around midday into
   the afternoon.

[BornAgain13]

The Severe threat for Monday continues to increase for sure. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Have mercy 

[BooneWX]

All of the short range models are starting to slow that front down. Any more ticks west with time and even more folks in the Carolinas and Virginia are going to be under the gun.

[kayman]

I'll be prepped and ready to go to my basement on Monday if I need to. This looks like it will be one that will be developing on top of the Metro Charlotte area from the Hickory/Unifour portion southward towards Shelby in Cleveland County. It will accelerate eastward through the midday-afternoon hours.  This is could be bad for the Triangle, Greater Richmond, the Metro Washington area AKA the DMV, and Metro Baltimore.  Especially, if there are individual supercells form ahead of main squall line or the line potentially forms as line segments with embedded supercells. 

Situations setting up like this on Monday is why Metro Charlotte needs a NEXRAD Doppler radar site & its own NWS forecast office to provide better radar reflectivity below 5,000 feet in its region. This would also help the Winston-Salem & High Point side of the Piedmont Triad area as well with better lower-level radar reflectivity coverage.

[BooneWX]

18 minutes ago, kayman said:

I'll be prepped and ready to go to my basement on Monday if I need to. This looks like it will be one that will be developing on top of the Metro Charlotte area from the Hickory/Unifour portion southward towards Shelby in Cleveland County. It will accelerate eastward through the midday-afternoon hours.  This is could be bad for the Triangle, Greater Richmond, the Metro Washington area AKA the DMV, and Metro Baltimore.  Especially, if there are individual supercells form ahead of main squall line or the line potentially forms as line segments with embedded supercells. 

Situations setting up like this on Monday is why Metro Charlotte needs a NEXRAD Doppler radar site & its own NWS forecast office to provide better radar reflectivity below 5,000 feet in its region. This would also help the Winston-Salem & High Point side of the Piedmont Triad area as well with better lower-level radar reflectivity coverage.

Yep. The poor radar coverage a few years ago caused a tornado to go unwarned in Catawba County and multiple people died. 

[eyewall]

We have been upgraded to a Moderate Risk. 15% tor and 60% wind. 

[SUNYGRAD]

Pretty big numbers for sure.  One model NAM 3K, but this brings attention here in the Triad area.  

[SUNYGRAD]

[kayman]

10 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Yep. The poor radar coverage a few years ago caused a tornado to go unwarned in Catawba County and multiple people died. 

I remember that exact storm. It's one of several that displays why we need a separate NEXRAD radar and forecasting office here @ CLT Airport. Nobody should be that weather blind to bad weather development because of the weakness of the TCLT radar & distance from the other NEXRAD sites scans. 

It would be covering the area between the Foothills and Western Piedmont including Charlotte, Gastonia, Hickory, Statesville, Mooresville, Salisbury, Winston-Salem and High Point in NC.  Those 4 Upstate counties (York, Lancaster, Chester, and Chesterfield) that are more economically tied and physically closer to Charlotte in SC like areas such as Rock Hill. 

[kayman]

SPC Outlook maps for tomorrow as of the 1 AM update

 

SPC AC 150607

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
   SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO VIRGINIA AND
   MARYLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widespread severe storms are forecast on Monday for parts of the
   Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Tornadoes, potentially strong,
   and particularly damaging winds are most likely from South Carolina
   into Maryland during the afternoon. Significant severe storm
   potential overall will extend from eastern Georgia/Florida Panhandle
   into Pennsylvania.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large and deepening upper trough will pivot northeastward out of
   the OH/TN Valleys, across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic
   on Monday, while a surface low deepens into southern Quebec. A sharp
   pre-frontal trough will extend southward across NY, PA, and into the
   Carolinas/GA by late afternoon, with a corridor of significant
   pressure falls timed with the diurnal heating maximum. A cold front
   will push rapidly east across GA and the FL Panhandle during the day
   with a bit slower progress across the Piedmont and into PA. Gusty
   south winds ahead of the cold front will maintain 60s F dewpoints
   across the entire region, and as far north as southern PA, just
   after warm front passage by late afternoon.

   Just above the surface, southerly 850 mb winds will increase from 50
   to 75 kt, resulting in extreme shear profiles over a large area.
   Large-scale ascent and shear will increase coincident with the peak
   heating hours, resulting in a potentially widespread severe weather
   event during the afternoon.

   ...From Georgia and the Florida Panhandle...
   Early day storms may be ongoing from the southern Appalachians
   toward the FL Panhandle Monday morning, and the environment will
   already be favorable for supercells including tornado potential.
   Forecast soundings indicate substantial instability with mid to
   perhaps upper 60s F along with ample shear. These storms may also
   produce hail, as midlevel lapse rates approach 7 C/km.

   ...Carolinas into MD/PA and vicinity...
   Areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should
   rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual
   destabilization over the entire area. As the surface trough deepens,
   low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day.
   Supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold
   front from SC into NC and southern VA. Models vary with degree of
   instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective
   SRH of at least 300-400 m2/s2. Fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest
   a long tracked tornado will be possible.

   Meanwhile, a robust line of storms will develop as the cold front
   pushes east, stretching from the Carolinas to southern NY. With a
   moist air mass and large-scale support, this line is expected to
   produce particularly damaging winds, along with QLCS tornadoes
   across the remainder of SC/NC, VA, MD, and much of southern PA. This
   will likely peak during the late afternoon hours. The activity may
   eventually interact with cool trajectories off the Atlantic during
   the evening.

   ..Jewell.. 03/15/2026

  

[kayman]

This helicity setup shows this could be a repeat of the April 2011 for the Carolinas. Any spacing between the storms or break ups of the squall line could be a strong tornadic supercell or a few tornadic supercells with the right environment that would be for a long-track tornado or multiple tornadoes.

[BooneWX]

Today is sneaky. I think for those along and west of I-77, it’s worth not getting lulled to sleep and distracted by Monday’s headlines.