Severe Weather Thread 2026

[goldsborosnow]

Parts of the area experienced severe weather yesterday and Monday is looking interesting.

[olafminesaw]

[goldsborosnow]

Day 3 Enhanced Risk for much of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia. 

[goldsborosnow]

Discussion from SPC:

[eyewall]

...Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...
   Primary changes this outlook are to add a 45 total severe
   probability along with minor northeast and southeast expansion to
   the categorical risk areas. Portions of the region, centered on SC
   to MD, may warrant an upgrade to a level 4/Moderate Risk in later
   outlooks.

   A large and deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward out
   of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians and into the Mid
   Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with an expansive area of strong to
   intense wind fields aloft. A deep cyclone will move from Lower MI
   into QC, with an occluding cold front arcing southeast across the
   northern Appalachians, then south-southwest into the northern Gulf.
   This front will clear all but the FL Peninsula by Monday evening.

   Ahead of the front, seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized
   by 60s surface dew points will spread northward from the eastern
   Gulf/western Atlantic. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z
   Monday, low-topped along the Upper OH Valley to central Appalachian
   portion of the front to deep convection in the lee of the southern
   Appalachians to eastern FL Panhandle. A diurnal uptick in storm
   intensity, including potential for semi-discrete supercells ahead of
   the front, should occur from north FL to the Carolina Piedmont.
   Further intensification is anticipated midday into the afternoon as
   a confined corridor of moderate buoyancy likely develops just ahead
   of morning storms.

   Enlarged low-level hodograph curvature, in conjunction with
   favorable elongation of the mid/upper hodograph, should foster a mix
   of broken supercells south with line-embedded supercells in the
   reinvigorated QLCS north. With such intense 700-mb flow aptly timed
   with the diurnal heating cycle overlying rich low-level moisture,
   setup could yield an expansive severe weather day, including strong
   tornadoes and significant damaging winds. The degree of
   boundary-layer heating, as well as timing of convection that may
   outpace the front late D2 into early D3, will play key roles in how
   intense severe magnitudes may become. At present, the most likely
   corridor for significant/widespread severe appears centered on the
   eastern Piedmont to coastal plain from SC to MD around midday into
   the afternoon.

[BornAgain13]

The Severe threat for Monday continues to increase for sure. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Have mercy 

[BooneWX]

All of the short range models are starting to slow that front down. Any more ticks west with time and even more folks in the Carolinas and Virginia are going to be under the gun.

[kayman]

I'll be prepped and ready to go to my basement on Monday if I need to. This looks like it will be one that will be developing on top of the Metro Charlotte area from the Hickory/Unifour portion southward towards Shelby in Cleveland County. It will accelerate eastward through the midday-afternoon hours.  This is could be bad for the Triangle, Greater Richmond, the Metro Washington area AKA the DMV, and Metro Baltimore.  Especially, if there are individual supercells form ahead of main squall line or the line potentially forms as line segments with embedded supercells. 

Situations setting up like this on Monday is why Metro Charlotte needs a NEXRAD Doppler radar site & its own NWS forecast office to provide better radar reflectivity below 5,000 feet in its region. This would also help the Winston-Salem & High Point side of the Piedmont Triad area as well with better lower-level radar reflectivity coverage.

[BooneWX]

18 minutes ago, kayman said:

I'll be prepped and ready to go to my basement on Monday if I need to. This looks like it will be one that will be developing on top of the Metro Charlotte area from the Hickory/Unifour portion southward towards Shelby in Cleveland County. It will accelerate eastward through the midday-afternoon hours.  This is could be bad for the Triangle, Greater Richmond, the Metro Washington area AKA the DMV, and Metro Baltimore.  Especially, if there are individual supercells form ahead of main squall line or the line potentially forms as line segments with embedded supercells. 

Situations setting up like this on Monday is why Metro Charlotte needs a NEXRAD Doppler radar site & its own NWS forecast office to provide better radar reflectivity below 5,000 feet in its region. This would also help the Winston-Salem & High Point side of the Piedmont Triad area as well with better lower-level radar reflectivity coverage.

Yep. The poor radar coverage a few years ago caused a tornado to go unwarned in Catawba County and multiple people died. 

[eyewall]

We have been upgraded to a Moderate Risk. 15% tor and 60% wind. 

[SUNYGRAD]

Pretty big numbers for sure.  One model NAM 3K, but this brings attention here in the Triad area.  

[SUNYGRAD]