2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[yoda]

DCA at 00z Tuesday 12z NAM 

 

[Kmlwx]

The CAMs (to varying degrees) all have decent amounts of storm coverage too - unlike some of the prior events recently. 

[vortex95]

16 hours ago, high risk said:

Monday has my attention.     The parameter space won't be high end, but we should have modest instability, deep layer shear, and dynamics.   Timing of day is good.     And there are even suggestions of some low-level shear, potentially eventually leading to 5% TOR outlook.

I've noticed that if a 5% tor risk is present, that almost always means a tor watch is issued.

[mappy]

Methinks we won’t be playing softball tomorrow night 

[Kmlwx]

I'm more "in" on this one than the prior events. It could still fizzle - and I certainly don't think it's going to be an "outbreak" - but storm coverage has higher confidence it seems - and the shear does raise some eyebrows!

Also I'll be in the office - which seems to guarantee good storms (my office is in the core of the building with no windows - so I essentially miss anything that happens during cool events).