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March Madness

Prismshine Productions

By Prismshine Productions,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland
Damage In Tolland

I see it’s psycho analyze Kevin time of year. Everyone turns into Typhoon Tipfreud trying to understand how my psyche works 

JACKASS
JACKASS

Not in North Cumberland RI.

dendrite
dendrite

I’m trying to make my bet on Kalshi for when you flip from ACATT to AWATT. Do you have any insider tips?

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Always concerns with propensity for Quebec highs. 

It’s still so far out too with the gradient lurking to the north. GFS actually wedges NH for most of that stretch. But I did have to laugh at some of the +15C 850s on the op and AI models. 

Where’s Will’s “don’t look at it” gif?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Although once his pack starts taking a beating and the valley is flirting with 70° the gypsy will emerge trying to rain to Maine and take everyone else’s pack.

Yep. Can tell that cocoon has something brewing in it already.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I see it’s psycho analyze Kevin time of year. Everyone turns into Typhoon Tipfreud trying to understand how my psyche works 

I’m trying to make my bet on Kalshi for when you flip from ACATT to AWATT. Do you have any insider tips?

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m trying to make my bet on Kalshi for when you flip from ACATT to AWATT. Do you have any insider tips?

If there was no pack now I’d be all gypsy moth all the time . With feet OTG and a few more events coming over the next week or so , I’m not there yet . But yes, the loins are tingly 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

No winter related Will posts in March for several consecutive days. I know that really weakens his ACATT resolve. 

Looks pretty bleak right now....though the 06z Euro did hit us on Mar 3-4 with a solid advisory/low end warning type event. But we need a lot more agreement on that. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week is becoming un-exciting 

I'm sensing the non-zero probability that the blizzard was the last storm we'll see.  

Low probability for now, but the thought popped in there when seeing that this impending pattern change that others are attempting to psycho-babble erode the significance of..., appears to be surging in a little earlier than the 10th - which was the previous index suggestion.  Still not totally sold on the timing aspects. 

Amid yesterday's runs this earlier notion started happening, and it probably led to those couple of GFS idea for an icing event along the BUF-BOS transit... Early warm push deals with lingering cold, etc.   However, the 6z is gone, and the wave producing that has been re-positioned N-W ... It's all an homage to what and where the hemisphere wants to do and go. 

May have to wait out a warm burst and see if there's a later month blue-bonnet spring special.    Otherwise, these indexes and operational tenors, et al, are signaling the end. 

Note, I'm not discussing the magnitude of the warm up... It's a recognition of the pattern foot and realism for March being a transition month with hot sun (hello).  Which is unfortunately for the winter fans gathering around old man's winter bed, bad pattern health timing.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks pretty bleak right now....though the 06z Euro did hit us on Mar 3-4 with a solid advisory/low end warning type event. But we need a lot more agreement on that. 

agreed...  I'm starting to lean like we need to get past this poorly seasonally timed warm synoptic surge.  

Here's the thing - experimental.  But it is one I have growing confidence for, tho the sample size is a bit light. I have noticed these late winter/early to mid spring warm burst synoptic patterns that started happening around 2010+ have had a tendency to decay into -NAO. In 2018, we were in fact warm burst prior to the NAO collapse and onset of a couple of blue beauties that year as an example.   

It's just something I'm leery about as we head into what looks like > 50/50 odds for another early warm synoptic pattern scenario.  Get a load of 588 dm heights as far N as the Del Marva out there 270 ...it's long way off...  so much of his still hypothetical, but I do have growing confidence that succeeding "too much" of this signal early might lend to -NAO last hurrah later on

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If there was no pack now I’d be all gypsy moth all the time . With feet OTG and a few more events coming over the next week or so , I’m not there yet . But yes, the loins are tingly 

Pack is gonna die a slow death. Nothing worse then heading into early March with no events and dying pack. Soon you’ll be heading home the “shady” way to avoid the bare spots.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pack is gonna die a slow death. Nothing worse then heading into early March with no events and dying pack. Soon you’ll be heading home the “shady” way to avoid the bare spots.

Sunday will drop a couple to refresh and if thats it.. then what can you do. I remember how long it lasted in 2015. I know this is a different pattern . So it’ll go faster unless that furnace mutes a lot 

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NeonPeon

NeonPeon

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pack is gonna die a slow death. Nothing worse then heading into early March with no events and dying pack. Soon you’ll be heading home the “shady” way to avoid the bare spots.

It's not going to die a slow death at this rate. Between settling, the bit of rain, and the sun, it looks like half what it was all fluffed up.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, NeonPeon said:

It's not going to die a slow death at this rate. Between settling, the bit of rain, and the sun, it looks like half what it was all fluffed up.

Yeah, I noticed it settled quite a bit over the last couple of days here too.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted

And just as we think it looks bleak(which has been said many a time this winter), the next couple cycles will show some more winter in true 25-26 fashion.   But if not…I think we are all pretty ready for some nicer and warmer weather.   Before it reloads to misery by the mid and end of March.  We know that’s coming…that’s the sad part. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

And just as we think it looks bleak(which has been said many a time this winter), the next couple cycles will show some more winter in true 25-26 fashion.   But if not…I think we are all pretty ready for some nicer and warmer weather.   Before it reloads to misery by the mid and end of March.  We know that’s coming…that’s the sad part. 

Do we?

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