Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[Solution Man]

LP 1002 slightly west of the 18Z location at 18

[clueless]

I’d like to be surprised with an upside for just once. 

[bncho]

Is I-95 gonna get CCBed this run????

[hsq]

Surprised to see I’m down to 32.5 already tonight. DP 31.

https://preview.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDHUNTI5

I know it will torch in the morning post sunrise, but I’m going to just hug the fact that it’s so close to freezing now :).

[jayyy]

am I going to believe this NAM 12k panel verbatim?

yes

No. Because the 12k is trash.

[Solution Man]

997 of Delmarva, just noise, could be a little drier…let’s see

[snowmagnet]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Is I-95 gonna get CCBed this run????

Yes!

[bncho]

 

It might! The Alberta vort did a clean phase. It's a triple phaser.

[jayyy]

Is I-95 gonna get CCBed this run????

Coastal could be getting going a smidge earlier this run? Have to double check 18z

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

No. Because the 12k is trash.

it owned thermals a month ago, and was pretty dead on with respect to when I was supposed to flip to sleet for the snowcrete dump.

Levels upstairs are all great, we need the coastal to crank and rates to drop temps at the surface.

I am choosing to believe the NAM that if things can get going by 1pm, I'll be seeing white rain IMBY at least

[bncho]

[Paleocene]

I am posting this for posterity because it is HILARIOUS

 

NAM has ingested i-95 emissions and they create SNOW

[Jake Wx]

dang

[Solution Man]

She’s a beaut 993 wrapping hard off Delmarva at 24

[bncho]

It's not as good for the western folks though. Terpeast and SnowenOutThere mentioned this as a risk if the alberta vort phased... much stronger CCB but less western precip as the low is so wound up

[bncho]

[Weather Will]

12K is crap model. 3K not nearly as good during the day.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

12k hammers 95 with CCB 

[bncho]

Just now, Weather Will said:

12K is crap model. 3K not nearly as good during the day.

shut the fuck up will, let us enjoy our moment

[PWC Split]

43/30 at 1100’ on Bull Run Mountain in Haymarket and 35/30 4 miles down the road at 450’ in Haymarket.

[Paleocene]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

12k hammers 95 with CCB 

we get annihilated. I shouldn't have debbed earlier. all hail king NAM

[Jake Wx]

looking good

[bncho]

You know why this happened? The Alberta vort phased! It's a mother fucking TRIPLE PHASER

[LeesburgWx]

It’s a hell of a run. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, bncho said:

You know why this happened? The Alberta vort phased! It's a mother fucking TRIPLE PHASER

Watch your language

[Weather Will]

WB 3K NAM transitions to steadier snow by 6pm.

[nw baltimore wx]

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Man 12k hammers 95….10:1 maps 10-12 inches by 1am for dc to Baltimore.  One time!!!

[Weather Will]

WB 3K NAM 10pm.

[Solution Man]

At 30 LP stalled at 978 of Delmarva