Snowfall contest for Feb 22-23 ... deadline for entries 06z Feb 22nd (0100h EST) ... NOW CLOSED TO ENTRIES

[Stormlover74]

Nyc 18.7

Isp 21.3

Jfk 19.1

Lga 20.2

Ewr 19.7

 

[Rjay]

11 hours ago, Rjay said:

NYC 17

LGA 17

ISP 19

JFK 18

EWR 18

Final call

NYC 17

LGA 19

ISP 21

JFK 20

EWR 19

[hmdeutsch98]

NYC 21.1

LGA 22.2

ISP 24.8

JFK 18.1

EWR 20.8

[UKWeatherGeek.]

NYC 22.4

LGA 23.2

ISP 23.7

JFK 19.4

EWR 21.1

[kat5hurricane]

Go Big or Go Home. 

NYC 25.2

LGA 23.8

ISP 30.1

JFK 26.5

EWR 24.7

[brooklynwx99]

NYC 18.6

LGA 19.2

ISP 21.1

JFK 20.3

EWR 18.1

[jaysoner]

4 hours ago, jaysoner said:

NYC: 17

LGA: 17

ISP:23

JFK:20

EWR: 16

 

NYC: 17.8

LGA: 19.9

ISP:23.5

JFK:20.6

EWR: 20.5

[NEG NAO]

NYC: 15.8

LGA: 17.9

ISP:27.5

JFK:22.6

EWR: 18.5

[Roger Smith]

Table of entries _ Allsnow Blizzard snow predictions _ Feb 22-23 2026

... order of entry is determined by NYC forecasts ...

FORECASTER ___________ NYC_LGA_ISP_JFK_EWR ____________ (error sq) _______ (error)

TriPOL __________________ 29.8_25.0_32.0_33.0_26.0 ________ 

coastalplainsnowman___ 28.0_30.0_31.0_29.0_32.0 ________

kat5hurricane ___________25.2_23.8_30.1_26.5_24.7 ________

UKWeatherGeek ________22.4_23.2_23.7_19.4_21.1 _________

hmdeutsch98 ___________ 21.1_22.2_24.8_18.1_20.8 _________

dmillz25 _________________21.1_20.6_24.6_19.6_20.5 _________

WeatherGeek2025 ______21.0_21.0_26.0_22.0_18.0 _________

___ NWS 07z fcsts ______20.0_21.5_23.3_22.9_20.5 ________

CPcantmeasuresnow____ 19.8_19.4_24.5_21.0_19.6 _________

Northshorekid __________ 19.8_19.2_22.8_20.9_17.4 __________

MJ0812__________________19.4_22.0_27.4_22.7_21.3 _________

hudsonvalley21 _________ 18.9_19.7_26.2_23.7_24.4 _________

Stormlover74 ___________ 18.7_20.2_21.3 _19.1_19.7 __________

brooklynwx99 __________ 18.6_19.2_21.1 _20.3_18.1 __________

JM1220 _________________ 18.4_19.1_23.2_20.6_18.7 __________

NsWx516 ________________ 18.0_20.0_25.0_21.0_23.0 _________

__ Consensus (median)__ 18.0_19.2_23.6_20.0_19.0 _________

Snowlover11 _____________ 18.0_19.0_22.0_20.0_17.0 _________

jaysoner _________________17.8_19.9_ 23.5_20.6_20.5 __________

DonSutherland1 _________ 17.8_18.5_23.0_20.0_18.0 __________

A_Status _________________17.2_18.4_23.8_21.2_18.9 __________

RJay ____________________ 17.0_19.0_ 21.0_ 20.0_19.0 __________

Roger Smith _____________ 16.5_17.0_23.9_14.5_16.8 __________

SACRUS _________________ 16.0_17.4_20.0_19.1_18.6 __________

NegNAO _________________ 15.8_17.9_27.5_22.6_18.5 __________

hooralph _________________15.1_18.2_22.5_19.8_17.5 __________

Prue11 ___________________ 15.0_18.0_23.0_17.0_19.0 __________

Juliancolton _____________ 13.4_15.7_24.0_16.2_21.3 __________

WintryMixmaster ________ 12.9_13.0_15.8_13.9_ 13.2 __________

BxEngine ________________ 12.3_14.9_22.0_17.5_12.8 __________

Stormpc _________________ 11.8_14.4_16.7_ 12.0_14.8 __________

dseagull __________________9.4_12.5_16.0_13.3 _11.8 ___________

<<< FORECASTS (or edits) AFTER THIS POST WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN CONTEST SCORING >>>

30 entries received by deadline

consensus does not include NWS forecasts and your rank will not be affected by their rank. 

[Roger Smith]

I found five entries that were listed in a different order than the contest template, so if you check your entry and think I have errors in your predictions, double check the locations. The most common change was to go NYC LGA JFK ISP EWR, but there was also one NYC ISP JFK LGA EWR.

[Wannabehippie]

NYC: 19.5

LGA: 21.5

ISP:26.5

JFK:22.0

EWR: 22.5

[Rjay]

8 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I found five entries that were listed in a different order than the contest template, so if you check your entry and think I have errors in your predictions, double check the locations. The most common change was to go NYC LGA JFK ISP EWR, but there was also one NYC ISP JFK LGA EWR.

Next time please add BLM, MMU, HPN and MGJ

[nesussxwx1]

NYC: 13.8

LGA: 17.90

ISP:18.55

JFK:17.00

EWR: 15.45

[Roger Smith]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Next time please add BLM, MMU, HPN and MGJ

I may have passed on by 2036.

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I may have passed on by 2036.

It will happen before then!

[Roger Smith]

Sadly the two (so far) forecasts posted after the deadline are not going to be in the contest but I will let those people know what their rank would have been as on-time entrants. It's not a hard and fast metric because if the deadline had been later some of the forecasts might have been edited. 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

12 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

NYC 18.6

LGA 19.2

ISP 21.1

JFK 20.3

EWR 18.1

You for got coastal jersey 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Totals so far as of Midnight 2/22

NYC 8.8

LGA 8.1

ISP 9.5

JFK 6.5

EWR 10.1

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Totals so far as of 7:00 AM 2/23

NYC 15.1

LGA 15.1

ISP  22.5

JFK 15.0

EWR 18.3

[BxEngine]

On 2/21/2026 at 1:39 PM, BxEngine said:

Nyc: 12.3”

Lga: 14.9”

isp: 22”

jfk: 17.5”

ewr: 12.8”

 

Nailed it. This hobby is easy.

 

[kat5hurricane]

On 2/22/2026 at 12:53 AM, kat5hurricane said:

Go Big or Go Home. 

NYC 25.2

LGA 23.8

ISP 30.1

JFK 26.5

EWR 24.7

Not bad, not bad at all. I had a feeling this one would deliver the goods

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Totals so far as of 1:00 PM 2/23

NYC 19.7

LGA 22.2

ISP  29.1

JFK 19.8

EWR 27.1

[Roger Smith]

Thanks for updating, CPetc, I have been working out scoring from approx values similar to your post, and it appears that hudsonvalley21 has a slight lead on MJ0812 in the error squared category, while MJ0812 is a little ahead of hudsonvalley21 in the total error count. Kat5hurricane is third in both (preliminary).

I will wait until today's 5 pm climate reports to post these tables already fairly close to being complete. That may or may not be the final values reported at end of day which will be used to verify or adjust the table. 

Our consensus was quite good and so was the NWS, but both were significantly low for ISP and EWR. These both score around 8th overall (without affecting your forecaster ranks afterwards).

[Roger Smith]

Scoring (preliminary) _ Allsnow Blizzard snow predictions _ Feb 22-23 2026

... these are based on preliminary estimates of final totals as shown ...

... note EWR has a lower total than was being shown earlier, perhaps this will be adjusted again later ... it resulted in a change from earlier calculations in the top two low error squared totals as well as several other rankings. 

 

RANK _FORECASTER ________ NYC_LGA_ISP_JFK_EWR _________ (error sq) ____ (errors) _________ TOTAL _ rank

__________ actual storm totals ______ 19.7 _22.5 _29.1 _20.1 _25.1

_01__MJ0812__________________19.4_22.0_27.4_22.7_21.3 ______ ____24.43 ___ 0.3 _0.5 _1.7 _2.6 _3.8 ___ 8.9 _ 1

_02__hudsonvalley21 _________ 18.9_19.7_26.2_23.7_24.4 ______ ____ 30.34 ___ 0.8 _2.8 _2.9 _3.6 _0.7 __ 10.8 _ 2

_03__NsWx516 _______________ 18.0_20.0_25.0_21.0_23.0 ______ ____31.17_____ 2.0 _2.0 _5.0 _2.0 _6.0 __ 11.3 _ 3

_04__hmdeutsch98 ___________ 21.1_22.2_24.8_18.1_20.8 ______ ____43.03 ___ 1.4 _ 0.3 _4.3 _2.0 _4.3 __ 12.3 _ 4

_05__dmillz25 _________________21.1_20.6_24.6_19.6_20.5 ______ ____47.23 ____ 1.4 _1.9 _4.5 _0.5 _4.6 ___ 12.9 _ 5

_06__UKWeatherGeek ________ 22.4_23.2_23.7_19.4_21.1 ______ ___ 53.43 ____ 2.7 _0.7 _5.4 _0.7 _4.0 ___ 13.5 _ 6

_07__CPcantmeasuresnow_____19.8_ 19.4_24.5_21.0_19.6 ______ ___ 61.84 ____ 0.1 _3.1 _ 4.6 _0.9 _5.5 ___ 14.2 _ 7

_08__jaysoner _________________17.8_19.9_ 23.5_20.6_20.5 ______ ___63.14 ____ 1.9 _2.6 _5.6 _0.5_4.6 __ 15.2 _ 10

_(08)__ NWS 07z fcsts _______20.0_21.5_23.3_22.9_20.5 ___ ___ 63.73____ 0.3 _1.0 _5.8 _2.8 _4.6 __ 12.9 _ (5)

_09__WeatherGeek2025 _____ 21.0_21.0_26.0_22.0_18.0 ______ ____ 67.57 _____ 1.3 _1.5 _3.1 _1.9 _ 7.1 ___ 14.9 _ 9

_10__kat5hurricane ___________25.2_23.8_30.1_26.5_24.7 _____ ____74.06 _____ 5.5 _1.3 _ 1.0 _6.4 _0.4___ 14.6 _ 8

(11)____Consensus (median)__18.0_19.2_23.6_20.0_19.0 ______ ____ 81.25 _____ 1.7 _3.3 _5.5 _ 0.1_ 6.1 ___ 16.7 _(11)

_11__NegNAO _________________15.8_17.9_27.5_22.6_18.5 _______ ___ 88.74 _____ 3.9 _4.6 _1.6 _2.5_6.6  __ 19.2 _ t-14

_12__JM1220 _________________ 18.4_19.1_23.2_20.6_18.7 _______ ___ 89.27 _____ 1.3 _3.4 _5.9 _0.5_6.4 ___ 17.5 _ t-11

_13__A_Status _________________17.2_18.4_23.8_21.2_18.9 _______ ___ 90.80 _____ 2.5 _4.1 _5.3 _ 1.1 _6.2 ___ 19.2 _ t-14

_14__Stormlover74 ___________ 18.7_20.2_21.3 _19.1_ 19.7 _______ ___ 97.29 _____ 1.0 _2.3 _7.8 _ 1.0 _5.4 ___ 17.5 _ t-11

_15__DonSutherland1 _________17.8_18.5_23.0_20.0_18.0 _______ ___ 107.24 _____ 1.9 _4.0 _6.1 _ 0.1_ 7.1 ___ 19.2 _ t-14

_16__Northshorekid __________ 19.8_19.2_22.8_20.9_17.4 _______ ___110.52 _____ 0.1 _3.3 _6.3 _0.8_ 7.7 ___ 18.2 _ 13

_17__RJay ____________________ 17.0_19.0_ 21.0_20.0_19.0 _______ ___ 122.37 _____ 2.7 _3.5 _8.1 _0.1_6.1 ___ 20.5 _ t-18

_18__brooklynwx99 __________ 18.6_19.2_21.1 _20.3_18.1 _______ ___ 125.14 _____ 1.1 _3.3 _8.0 _0.2_ 7.0 ___ 19.6 _ 17

_19__Prue11 ___________________ 15.0_18.0_23.0_17.0_19.0 _______ ___ 126.37 _____ 4.7 _4.5 _6.1 _3.1_ 6.1 ___ 24.5 _ 21

_20__Snowlover11 _____________18.0_19.0_22.0_20.0_17.0 ______ ___ 131.17 ______ 1.7 _ 3.5 _7.1 _0.1 _ 8.1 ___ 20.5 _ t-18

_21__hooralph _________________15.1_18.2_22.5_19.8_17.5 _______ ___ 141.06 _____ 4.6 _4.3 _6.6 _0.3_ 7.6 ___ 23.4 _ 20

_22__Juliancolton _____________13.4_15.7_24.0_16.2_21.3 _______ ___ 141.59 _____ 6.3 _6.8 _5.1 _3.9_ 3.8 ___ 25.9 _ 23

_23__SACRUS _________________16.0_17.4_20.0_19.1_18.6 _______ ___ 165.76 _____ 3.7 _5.1 _9.1 _1.0_ 6.5 ___ 25.4 _ 22

_24__Roger Smith ____________ 16.5_17.0_23.9_14.5_16.8 _______ ___ 167.78 _____3.2 _5.5 _5.2 _5.6_ 8.3 ___ 27.8 _ 24

_25__coastalplainsnowman___ 28.0_30.0_31.0_29.0_32.0 _____ ___ 255.57 _____8.3 _7.5 _1.9 _8.9 _6.9 ___ 33.5 _ 26

_26__ TriPOL __________________29.8_25.0_32.0_33.0_26.0 ____ ___ 283.89 ____ 10.1 _2.5 _2.9_12.9 _0.9 ___ 29.3 _ 25

_27__BxEngine ________________ 12.3_14.9_22.0_17.5_12.8 _______ ___320.98 _____ 7.4 _7.6 _7.1 _2.6_ 12.3 ___ 37.0 _ 27

_28__Stormpc _________________ 11.8_14.4_16.7_ 12.0_14.8 _______ ___453.48 _____ 7.9 _8.1 _12.4 _8.1_10.3 ___ 46.8 _ 28

_29__WintryMixmaster ________ 12.9_13.0_15.8_13.9_ 13.2 ______ ___ 493.43 _____ 6.8 _9.5_13.3 _6.2_11.9 ___ 47.7 _ 29

_30__dseagull __________________9.4_12.5_16.0_13.3 _11.8 _______ ___ 600.83 _____10.3_10.0_13.1 _6.8_13.3 ___ 53.5 _ 30

<<< FORECASTS (or edits) AFTER THIS POST WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN CONTEST SCORING >>>

30 entries received by deadline

consensus does not include NWS forecasts and your rank is not affected by their rank. 

 

Scores and rankings that two late entries would have received

 

wannabehippie _____________ 19.5 _ 21.5 _26.5 _ 22.0 _22.5 ________ 18.17 ______ 8.3 __ would have ranked 1st, 1st

nesussxwx1 _________________13.8 _ 17.9 _ 18.6 _ 17.0 _ 15.5 ________ 267.99 _____33.7 __ would have ranked 27th, 28th**

 

** ranks if both late forecasts participated. 

 

NOTES:

 

1. The table above is subject to adjustment if any daily snowfall values as listed so far are changed by tonight's CF6 final.

2. Best forecasts are shown in red highlight (in forecasts and in errors)

[TriPol]

19 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Scoring (preliminary) _ Allsnow Blizzard snow predictions _ Feb 22-23 2026

... these are based on preliminary estimates of final totals as shown ...

... note EWR has a lower total than was being shown earlier, perhaps this will be adjusted again later ... it resulted in a change from earlier sacalculations in the top two low error squared totals as well as several other rankings. 

 

RANK _FORECASTER ________ NYC_LGA_ISP_JFK_EWR _________ (error sq) ____ (errors) _________ TOTAL _ rank

__________ actual storm totals ______ 19.7 _22.5 _29.1 _20.1 _25.1

_01__MJ0812__________________19.4_22.0_27.4_22.7_21.3 ______ ____24.43 ___ 0.3 _0.5 _1.7 _2.6 _3.8 ___ 8.9 _ 1

_02__hudsonvalley21 _________ 18.9_19.7_26.2_23.7_24.4 ______ ____ 30.34 ___ 0.8 _2.8 _2.9 _3.6 _0.7 __ 10.8 _ 2

_03__NsWx516 _______________ 18.0_20.0_25.0_21.0_23.0 ______ ____31.17_____ 2.0 _2.0 _5.0 _2.0 _6.0 __ 11.3 _ 3

_04__hmdeutsch98 ___________ 21.1_22.2_24.8_18.1_20.8 ______ ____43.03 ___ 1.4 _ 0.3 _4.3 _2.0 _4.3 __ 12.3 _ 4

_05__dmillz25 _________________21.1_20.6_24.6_19.6_20.5 ______ ____47.23 ____ 1.4 _1.9 _4.5 _0.5 _4.6 ___ 12.9 _ 5

_06__UKWeatherGeek ________ 22.4_23.2_23.7_19.4_21.1 ______ ___ 53.43 ____ 2.7 _0.7 _5.4 _0.7 _4.0 ___ 13.5 _ 6

_07__CPcantmeasuresnow_____19.8_ 19.4_24.5_21.0_19.6 ______ ___ 61.84 ____ 0.1 _3.1 _ 4.6 _0.9 _5.5 ___ 14.2 _ 7

_08__jaysoner _________________17.8_19.9_ 23.5_20.6_20.5 ______ ___63.14 ____ 1.9 _2.6 _5.6 _0.5_4.6 __ 15.2 _ 10

_(08)__ NWS 07z fcsts _______20.0_21.5_23.3_22.9_20.5 ___ ___ 63.73____ 0.3 _1.0 _5.8 _2.8 _4.6 __ 12.9 _ (5)

_09__WeatherGeek2025 _____ 21.0_21.0_26.0_22.0_18.0 ______ ____ 67.57 _____ 1.3 _1.5 _3.1 _1.9 _ 7.1 ___ 14.9 _ 9

_10__kat5hurricane ___________25.2_23.8_30.1_26.5_24.7 _____ ____74.06 _____ 5.5 _1.3 _ 1.0 _6.4 _0.4___ 14.6 _ 8

(11)____Consensus (median)__18.0_19.2_23.6_20.0_19.0 ______ ____ 81.25 _____ 1.7 _3.3 _5.5 _ 0.1_ 6.1 ___ 16.7 _(11)

_11__NegNAO _________________15.8_17.9_27.5_22.6_18.5 _______ ___ 88.74 _____ 3.9 _4.6 _1.6 _2.5_6.6  __ 19.2 _ t-14

_12__JM1220 _________________ 18.4_19.1_23.2_20.6_18.7 _______ ___ 89.27 _____ 1.3 _3.4 _5.9 _0.5_6.4 ___ 17.5 _ t-11

_13__A_Status _________________17.2_18.4_23.8_21.2_18.9 _______ ___ 90.80 _____ 2.5 _4.1 _5.3 _ 1.1 _6.2 ___ 19.2 _ t-14

_14__Stormlover74 ___________ 18.7_20.2_21.3 _19.1_ 19.7 _______ ___ 97.29 _____ 1.0 _2.3 _7.8 _ 1.0 _5.4 ___ 17.5 _ t-11

_15__DonSutherland1 _________17.8_18.5_23.0_20.0_18.0 _______ ___ 107.24 _____ 1.9 _4.0 _6.1 _ 0.1_ 7.1 ___ 19.2 _ t-14

_16__Northshorekid __________ 19.8_19.2_22.8_20.9_17.4 _______ ___110.52 _____ 0.1 _3.3 _6.3 _0.8_ 7.7 ___ 18.2 _ 13

_17__RJay ____________________ 17.0_19.0_ 21.0_20.0_19.0 _______ ___ 122.37 _____ 2.7 _3.5 _8.1 _0.1_6.1 ___ 20.5 _ t-18

_18__brooklynwx99 __________ 18.6_19.2_21.1 _20.3_18.1 _______ ___ 125.14 _____ 1.1 _3.3 _8.0 _0.2_ 7.0 ___ 19.6 _ 17

_19__Prue11 ___________________ 15.0_18.0_23.0_17.0_19.0 _______ ___ 126.37 _____ 4.7 _4.5 _6.1 _3.1_ 6.1 ___ 24.5 _ 21

_20__Snowlover11 _____________18.0_19.0_22.0_20.0_17.0 ______ ___ 131.17 ______ 1.7 _ 3.5 _7.1 _0.1 _ 8.1 ___ 20.5 _ t-18

_21__hooralph _________________15.1_18.2_22.5_19.8_17.5 _______ ___ 141.06 _____ 4.6 _4.3 _6.6 _0.3_ 7.6 ___ 23.4 _ 20

_22__Juliancolton _____________13.4_15.7_24.0_16.2_21.3 _______ ___ 141.59 _____ 6.3 _6.8 _5.1 _3.9_ 3.8 ___ 25.9 _ 23

_23__SACRUS _________________16.0_17.4_20.0_19.1_18.6 _______ ___ 165.76 _____ 3.7 _5.1 _9.1 _1.0_ 6.5 ___ 25.4 _ 22

_24__Roger Smith ____________ 16.5_17.0_23.9_14.5_16.8 _______ ___ 167.78 _____3.2 _5.5 _5.2 _5.6_ 8.3 ___ 27.8 _ 24

_25__coastalplainsnowman___ 28.0_30.0_31.0_29.0_32.0 _____ ___ 255.57 _____8.3 _7.5 _1.9 _8.9 _6.9 ___ 33.5 _ 26

_26__ TriPOL __________________29.8_25.0_32.0_33.0_26.0 ____ ___ 283.89 ____ 10.1 _2.5 _2.9_12.9 _0.9 ___ 29.3 _ 25

_27__BxEngine ________________ 12.3_14.9_22.0_17.5_12.8 _______ ___320.98 _____ 7.4 _7.6 _7.1 _2.6_ 12.3 ___ 37.0 _ 27

_28__Stormpc _________________ 11.8_14.4_16.7_ 12.0_14.8 _______ ___453.48 _____ 7.9 _8.1 _12.4 _8.1_10.3 ___ 46.8 _ 28

_29__WintryMixmaster ________ 12.9_13.0_15.8_13.9_ 13.2 ______ ___ 493.43 _____ 6.8 _9.5_13.3 _6.2_11.9 ___ 47.7 _ 29

_30__dseagull __________________9.4_12.5_16.0_13.3 _11.8 _______ ___ 600.83 _____10.3_10.0_13.1 _6.8_13.3 ___ 53.5 _ 30

<<< FORECASTS (or edits) AFTER THIS POST WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN CONTEST SCORING >>>

30 entries received by deadline

consensus does not include NWS forecasts and your rank is not affected by their rank. 

 

Scores and rankings that two late entries would have received

 

wannabehippie _____________ 19.5 _ 21.5 _26.5 _ 22.0 _22.5 ________ 18.17 ______ 8.3 __ would have ranked 1st, 1st

nesussxwx1 _________________13.8 _ 17.9 _ 18.6 _ 17.0 _ 15.5 ________ 267.99 _____33.7 __ would have ranked 27th, 28th**

 

** ranks if both late forecasts participated. 

 

NOTES:

 

1. The table above is subject to adjustment if any daily snowfall values as listed so far are changed by tonight's CF6 final.

2. Best forecasts are shown in red highlight (in forecasts and in errors)

At least I beat BxEngine!

[cleetussnow]

Congrats Anthony!  Nailed it.  Got any stock advice?

[NsWx516]

Ill take third, congrats @MJO812 on first!

[Roger Smith]

Check back for updates, I don't entirely trust the NYC or EWR numbers, ranks are not likely to change much if at all. 

[BxEngine]

Canadian judge cheated i was robbed

[MJO812]