Spring 2026 Med/Long Range Discussion

[cmillzz]

Fairly strong signal for a major system to impact the region around the St. Patrick’s day timeframe. @OrdIowPitMsp gets absolutely clobbered on the 12z GFS.

[A-L-E-K]

Mid week soaker prospects looking good, drought kept in check 

[DocATL]

Wonderful spring day…can’t wait for more of this!

[Baum]

12 hours ago, DocATL said:

Wonderful spring day…can’t wait for more of this!

Maybe on Sunday you’ll get another chance to enjoy Spring in Chicago

[DocATL]

Maybe on Sunday you’ll get another chance to enjoy Spring in Chicago

00z Euro has a line of boomers followed by a cold shot till mid week before warming up. We can endure that.

[A-L-E-K]

looks warm after our next and hopefully last cold shot

[hawkeye_wx]

Yeah, potent cold shot, but the Euro has us back in the 70s by Thursday.

[Chicago Storm]

i’m pulling for the gfs, just to rain (snow) on doc’s parade.

[A-L-E-K]

same tbh

[DocATL]

i’m pulling for the gfs, just to rain (snow) on doc’s parade.

Probably rain. I am in the Naperville St. Paddy’s day parade on Saturday so there’s that.

[Baum]

Rain and 35 it is.

[Baum]

Rumors of late March 2012 are surfacing. Bring it.

[A-L-E-K]

 

 

[Chicago916]

soon to be all of us

[A-L-E-K]

We're lucky for the recent precipitation, rough look for sure

[beavis1729]

NWS Phoenix…crazy stuff. 
 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/...
The area of high pressure suppressed and shoved westward by the
transient disturbance will rebound and eventually migrate off the
Eastern Pacific by Tuesday. As it moves, regional H5 heights will
rise markedly, reaching near 588-590dm. However, global
deterministic guidance takes things further showing heights aloft
peaking near 594-596dm by Thursday. For reference, sounding
climatology data for Las Vegas, Flagstaff, and Tucson all show
record H5 heights for March are around 590dm and April 591dm,
593dm, and 592dm respectively. With that being said, this high
will be near to slightly stronger than any ridge this region has
seen in recorded history, not only for March, but for April as
well.

This anomalously strong high will translate to record temperatures,
not just at the surface, but throughout much of the atmosphere as
well. H7-H5 temperatures will reach all-time records for this time
of year by Tuesday, with H8 readings joining the fray by
Wednesday. These climatological records will not last one day
either as forecasts show these abnormal values extending through
the end of the work week and even into next weekend. At the
surface, lower desert highs by Tuesday will be in the upper 90s
to near 100 degrees with values climbing to around 105 degrees for
much of the lower deserts by Thursday. If these temperatures are
realized, those readings would be 25 to almost 30 degrees above
normal.

It should not come as much of a surprise that numerous records are
likely to be broken at some point next week with Tuesday likely
being the first day when all-time daily MaxTs begin to fall.
However, with the lack of movement from the ridge overhead,
consecutive days with new record temperatures appear likely. What is
also very unusual about how hot this pattern will be is how much
high temperatures could potentially best previous records. For
instance, the current forecasted high temperature for Phoenix for
Friday is 106 degrees. While it is typical to see records beaten
by a few degrees at most, this forecast high may beat Fridays
record of 96 by 10 degrees. Monthly records are also at risk of
falling during this upcoming heat wave. The all-time March records
for Phoenix, Yuma, and El Centro are 100, 102, and 101 degrees
respectively. All of those values could be tied or eclipsed as
early as Wednesday.

The record setting potential doesn`t end there. The earliest 100
degree day recorded in Phoenix is March 26, which was observed back
in 1988, and is actually the only other time since records began
when triple digits were achieved in the month of March for the city.
It appears that a new earliest instance of 100 degree will be set as
it is a matter of when, not if, it will happen. Current forecasts
suggest that will occur on Wednesday the 18th, 8 days ahead of the
previous record.

[A-L-E-K]

 

[cmillzz]

On 3/7/2026 at 11:12 AM, cmillzz said:

Fairly strong signal for a major system to impact the region around the St. Patrick’s day timeframe. @OrdIowPitMsp gets absolutely clobbered on the 12z GFS.

GFS did quite a decent job at sniffing it out early, not too shabby at all.

[cmillzz]

6 hours ago, Baum said:

Rumors of late March 2012 are surfacing. Bring it.

For the Midwest, depends how much blocking there is. AI isn't as aggressive with it as the OP Euro, but neither of them have had very stellar performances in the long range as of recent.

[A-L-E-K]

11 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

GFS did quite a decent job at sniffing it out early, not too shabby at all.

It's been having a moment

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, Baum said:

Rumors of late March 2012 are surfacing. Bring it.

Not even close for the Great Lakes and northeast. The west is a different story. 

[cmillzz]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Not even close for the Great Lakes and northeast. The west is a different story. 

The ridge should flex itself eastward at times allowing for brief periods of very mild weather around here, but obviously not as sustained as the west.

[michsnowfreak]

22 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

The ridge should flex itself eastward at times allowing for brief periods of very mild weather around here, but obviously not as sustained as the west.

Agree. When you talk march 2012 you aren't talking mild, when you talk feb 2015 you aren't talking cold. Youre talking historic on a local level. And theres no sign of that here. For the SW its even worse because they are getting their march 2012 now,.but they already average way warmer. 

[cmillzz]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Agree. When you talk march 2012 you aren't talking mild, when you talk feb 2015 you aren't talking cold. Youre talking historic on a local level. And theres no sign of that here. For the SW its even worse because they are getting their march 2012 now,.but they already average way warmer. 

I never really root for another March 2012 because it did result in an agricultural disaster as we got some cold shots the following April. From a pure meteorology standpoint, however, it was awesome.