Spring 2026 Med/Long Range Discussion

[Brian D]

A potentially chilly start to met Spring on tap? We'll see, but hopefully some good storms mixed with it. My modelling method would indicate a cooler period to start March.

[Spartman]

Signs of a record wet March and perhaps the whole Spring?

12z GFS:

12z Euro:

[DocATL]

https://x.com/nwscpc/status/2026392422859649389?s=46


.

[A-L-E-K]

wet signal has been strong but looks to be the real deal, hope to avoid too much of a miss south situation but i know that area needs rain bad

[DocATL]

Napalm.

[cyclone77]

Nice to see wet systems showing up finally in the medium range.  Hope we can get them into the short range without them drying up.

[A-L-E-K]

it's time

 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

^ firehose 

[A-L-E-K]

lots of drought conditions to go around so we need to lock in

[cyclone77]

9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

lots of drought conditions to go around so we need to lock in

Yeah we need rains like what's being modeled for sure.

Funny we're down 10 inches of precip since last summer, but still just classified as "abnormally dry" on the drought index lol.

 

[A-L-E-K]

feels like the long term dry pattern has been hanging tough for a couple years but we get just enough soakers at the right intervals to keep from ever drying out too much

a prolonged wet and active spring would be a welcome change of pace

[Stebo]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

feels like the long term dry pattern has been hanging tough for a couple years but we get just enough soakers at the right intervals to keep from ever drying out too much

a prolonged wet and active spring would be a welcome change of pace

I hope we lock in on a wet spring, those always tend to be fun for severe as well.

[Geoboy645]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

feels like the long term dry pattern has been hanging tough for a couple years but we get just enough soakers at the right intervals to keep from ever drying out too much

a prolonged wet and active spring would be a welcome change of pace

That seems to be the pattern most of this decade with the exception of the first half of 2024, at least here in S WI. Long periods of nothing interspersed with about 6 weeks of precip and storms, followed by another 2-3 month stretch of nothing. Hopefully we can get enough precip in the Spring this year.

[A-L-E-K]

 

 

[cyclone77]

On 2/26/2026 at 6:35 PM, cyclone77 said:

Nice to see wet systems showing up finally in the medium range.  Hope we can get them into the short range without them drying up.

Already starting to trend drier as we get closer, with the heavier rains shifting southeast.  Hope we can still squeeze a half inch out of this over the next 2 weeks.

[Spartman]

Not our month for a lot of dry weather, according to BAM

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2027565955266572494

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, Spartman said:

Not our month for a lot of dry weather, according to BAM

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2027565955266572494

We are hurting bad when BAM shit starts getting posted 

[cyclone77]

Only 64 more model cycles left to see if this comes to fruition.

 

[A-L-E-K]

extended looking like the worst of both worlds, miss south the warm thundery rains and no actual winter threats

[Powerball]

45 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

extended looking like the worst of both worlds, miss south the warm thundery rains and no actual winter threats

In other words, typical Spring weather for the region...

[DocATL]

GFS gives us transient cold for a couple of days, no frozen precipitation threats, and looks to pop a ridge around 3/20.

[frostfern]

On 3/2/2026 at 7:16 AM, A-L-E-K said:

extended looking like the worst of both worlds, miss south the warm thundery rains and no actual winter threats

The first half of next week looks interesting with a strong north-displaced zonal flow.  That’s the best pattern for getting steep mid-level lapse rates up into the Great Lakes.

[cmillzz]

Extended looks good IMO