February 22-23 Storm Thread/OBS

[Ralph Wiggum]

So what didnI miss today? Catch me up. Has there really been a complete cave to the gfs or are wi shield wipering to meet in the middle?

[JTA66]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So what didnI miss today? Catch me up. Has there really been a complete cave to the gfs or are wi shield wipering to meet in the middle?

Howard said models suck and are useless.

Ji cancelled winter.

Randy told Chuck to stfu.

And Hoffman said it can’t snow anymore.
 

i think that covers most of it.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Hurricane went on to say the European is superior and the gfs should not be believed and the gefs dont agree with it. Dont shoot the messenger.

[Blue Dream]

@Heisydid you see 18z?

[zenmsav6810]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hurricane went on to say the European is superior and the gfs should not be believed and the gefs dont agree with it. Dont shoot the messenger.

I thought the latest Euro was an improvement? 

[RedSky]

Guidance gets the good data at 0z for the sniffing glue crowd

[Newman]

Holy shit, I took a break and come back to a partial, maybe full cave to the GFS on the Euro suites?? I wasn't going to stay up for 0z tonight but here we are

[Duca892]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hurricane went on to say the European is superior and the gfs should not be believed and the gefs dont agree with it. Dont shoot the messenger.

Yea but I mean… didnt the euro just take big steps towards the GFS?

[WxUnit]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hurricane went on to say the European is superior and the gfs should not be believed and the gefs dont agree with it. Dont shoot the messenger.

For what its worth he was going off the 12z runs rather then the 18z runs.

[JTA66]

7 minutes ago, WxUnit said:

For what its worth he was going off the 12z runs rather then the 18z runs.

I was wondering that yesterday when Ralph gave the update. It seemed like Hurricane was reacting to the 12z runs. But I didn’t watch the video or know when he records them, just my hunch.
 

Still, Hurricane knows his $hit, so it would be foolish to dismiss his thoughts.

[Ralph Wiggum]

19 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Yea but I mean… didnt the euro just take big steps towards the GFS?

This was before 18z his post

[Birds~69]

29 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Howard said models suck and are useless.

Ji cancelled winter.

Randy told Chuck to stfu.

And Hoffman said it can’t snow anymore.
 

i think that covers most of it.

Hey now, well that's encouraging mad guy stuff. Very promising...they mean it.

The 0z stuff is where I start to take a side. If things go south, I'm tossing my 12" B&W TV and assorted cassettes out the window.Maybe a couple 8 tracks if I'm really mad...vinyl no way.

Still time ..

38F

[Duca892]

Some of the most anticipated 0z runs in recent memory. Huge to see if this is a trend that continues or windshield wiper

[Newman]

I think that huge shift west on the Euro is the step we needed for a true convergence/compromise on the models. I'm still thinking a mostly SE of I-95 hit with coastal Jersey and Delmarva taking the brunt of it. Areas to the NW will see some snow, potentially most of it from the IVT. There will unfortunately be a screw zone most likely. However, we could still see additional ticks west (or east) on all guidance and really any solution is still fair game. Ensemble probabilities tell me that, if I was from Delaware up along coastal Jersey right now, I'd be feeling okay.

TBH, gut feeling is that something like the 18z AIFS is closest to the actual solution. But with how atrocious these models have been, it's hard to lean one way or the other.

[Birds~69]

9 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Some of the most anticipated 0z runs in recent memory. Huge to see if this is a trend that continues or windshield wiper

I think the 0z will point or at least hint where we are going. Die hard weenies will keep tracking when the writing is on the wall...life of a weenie I guess?

 

 

[Duca892]

1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

I think the 0z will point or at least hint where we are going. Die hard weenies will keep tracking when the writing is on the wall...life of a weenie I guess?

 

 

I would just throughly enjoy one last 2-4in snowfall here in Whitehall to put us at or above an average winter. Would be memorable 

[anthonyweather]

I would just throughly enjoy one last 2-4in snowfall here in Whitehall to put us at or above an average winter. Would be memorable 

Whitehall PA is already above average.


.

[Duca892]

2 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Whitehall PA is already above average.


.

Then i declare that this storm can miss! 

[anthonyweather]

Then i declare that this storm can miss! 

LVIA is at 31 or something season to date. LVIA only recorded 11.8 last storm (which I think was skewed but whatever)


.

[mcwx]

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

I was wondering that yesterday when Ralph gave the update. It seemed like Hurricane was reacting to the 12z runs. But I didn’t watch the video or know when he records them, just my hunch.
 

Still, Hurricane knows his $hit, so it would be foolish to dismiss his thoughts.

as do many here...

[Newman]

All long range NAM caveats apply, but it's looking great right now at hr60. At the very least, going to be a significant improvement from 12z and 18z. Trough is turning neutral over Tennessee and much more amplified. Just need to get that final backside trough energy to phase in...

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Newman said:

All long range NAM caveats apply, but it's looking great right now at hr60. At the very least, going to be a significant improvement from 12z and 18z. Trough is turning neutral over Tennessee and much more amplified. Just need to get that final backside trough energy to phase in...

Backside energy has slowed if you review past 2 or 3 nam runs. Might be a wash with the faster tilt but slower sw on the back. Not sure yet.

[Newman]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Backside energy has slowed if you review past 2 or 3 nam runs. Might be a wash with the faster tilt but slower sw on the back. Not sure yet.

That backside vort actually adds angular momentum to the trough to give it the "boost" it needs and tilts it up the coast. NAM is verbatim a huge Delmarva crusher

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Newman said:

That backside vort actually adds angular momentum to the trough to give it the "boost" it needs and tilts it up the coast. NAM is verbatim a huge Delmarva crusher

Nice confluence as well. Alot of little pieces coming together.

[Newman]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Nice confluence as well. Alot of little pieces coming together.

Verbatim that backside vort is slower so it helps to tilt that PVA running out ahead up and into the coast, but it's not fast enough to phase and create a GFS type solution yet. Huge shift that way though.