Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS

[BroadWing3544]

Morning folks.  Gray and misty here in SEPA, just about ten minutes north of Wilmington.  Temp hovering around 33-34*.  

Careful out there today, all! 

[Physicsteve]

Thanks for the thread and safe travels, @Mikeymac5306. Safe to say you have thread-making duties for the near future. May be a tough one to top though. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

I went 7-14" for mby Friday evening for this storm. Im sticking with that range and feel pretty good right now. 7 probably the low end here at worst but I could see up to 14 as a possibility. I won't be angry if I bust low tho.

[Newman]

My final call for Berks and Lehigh Valley is 4-8". I think the NWS will begin to trim back on the totals further NW in their next package. All of the western learners (NAM, HRRR, SREFs) are shifting east now as they were (unsurprisingly) too amplified with the trough and mid-level lows. I can see a scenario where parts of this area get screwed between the IVT to the west and CCB to the east. We'll see how the cards are dealt, I hope I'm wrong and areas to the NW get in on the goods. I will say, one way this area could exceed expectations is in the daytime snow today. I will be signing off from the storm for much of the rest of the day, good luck everyone!

[LVLion77]

This may be the widest range of forecasts I have seen for a snowstorm in quite some time up here in the Lehigh Valley. The NWS is all in at 10-20”. The Weather Channel is basically out - 4-6”. AccuWeather splits the difference at 6-10”. Local meteo at WFMZ is all in as well at 8-14”.

[Prairie Dog]

Joe Cioffo of the famed Joe and Joe Weather show just upped his total for my area to 15 to 20 inches. He pushed the area wet of Philly up as well.  This was 7 AM. His reasoning is some of the short range models are not picking up the underlying explosive dynamics of the storm 

[Heisy]

I went 7-14" for mby Friday evening for this storm. Im sticking with that range and feel pretty good right now. 7 probably the low end here at worst but I could see up to 14 as a possibility. I won't be angry if I bust low tho.

I’m same, been telling my friends/family 8-14”. If we do get under 10 though I’ll never doubt the Canadians again. Honestly, should have a good idea by early afternoon based on how the radar looks

[Ralph Wiggum]

Wet flakes lightly falling very lazily....like slo motion. 34F

Eta: just walked outside it is spitting (rain) with mangled wet flakes mixed

[LVblizzard]

Mt. Holly always goes super aggressive and refuses to back down. 12-18” is way too high here, I’d cut that in half. Yet it seems that they’ve doubled down overnight.

Latest HRRR still looks decent here but once again, the east bump is real. The I-81 area is now under a bust warning, it looks like they will get screwed by the subsidence zone. Another shift east or two and Allentown is next.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Latest hrrr really shaved totals. General 6-12 extreme eastern pa and NJ lollis to 18"

[Duca892]

I hate to be that annoying downer guy… but holy shit I can’t believe this happening… for models to hit over and over and over for 12in+ at the last second to start finally pushing east and for this to really be a borderline warning event for the Lehigh Valley is truly laughable 

[ChescoWx]

I am going with 8" to 12" out here in NW Chesco

Currently Mist and 34.3 degrees

[LVblizzard]

This is the exact kind of storm where the Lehigh Valley can get screwed by the geography of the area. Hi-res models have been hinting at this ever since they came into range, including the latest HRRR which gives the Poconos and Philly burbs 12-18” yet Allentown struggles to get to 6”. The same thing happened here during Boxing Day, although this one doesn’t look like as big of a bust. Hopefully.

[Mshaffer526]

11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Latest hrrr really shaved totals. General 6-12 extreme eastern pa and NJ lollis to 18"

Yikes. Not a pretty sight for those of us on the NW edges. At this point I'll be happy to get 6".

[MickeyTim6533]

ouch

[Duca892]

HRRR is a disaster and if it kept trending that way Warnings would be cancelled by this evening in the LV

[Violentweatherfan]

29 minutes ago, Prairie Dog said:

Joe Cioffo of the famed Joe and Joe Weather show just upped his total for my area to 15 to 20 inches. He pushed the area wet of Philly up as well.  This was 7 AM. His reasoning is some of the short range models are not picking up the underlying explosive dynamics of the storm 

Did you catch the part of the show where they shared information about the European model isn’t what it used to be. There were changes made to it and it isn’t the same “Dr. No” ?

[The Iceman]

25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Latest hrrr really shaved totals. General 6-12 extreme eastern pa and NJ lollis to 18"

Huh?

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022212&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

 

shaved totals for berks and Lehigh valley, 95 corridor and NJ look just about the same as 6z

[Blue Dream]

3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Huh?

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022212&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

 

shaved totals for berks and Lehigh valley, 95 corridor and NJ look just about the same

19” looks just fine to me. Hopefully the sharp cut off is overdone for our north and west friends

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Huh?

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022212&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

 

shaved totals for berks and Lehigh valley, 95 corridor and NJ look just about the same as 6z

TT looms very different. I think we discussed this before it is either the ratios each respective outlet uses or one factors mixing i cant recall.

[The Iceman]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

TT looms very different. I think we discussed this before it is either the ratios each respective outlet uses or one factors mixing i cant recall.

Tt looks the same?

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2026022212&fh=1
 

I always use the 10:1 maps especially with these systems. You’re using the snow depth maps which again haven’t changed from 6z for those areas. 

[Heisy]

Latest hrrr really shaved totals. General 6-12 extreme eastern pa and NJ lollis to 18"

Here in Bensalem I’m hoping I’m far enough east to clip the edge of the extreme banding that sets up later today/tonight.

Here is 12z NAM h7, can see it’s trending farther E

After the NAM I’m turning off the models though so I don’t stress myself out lol

[Blue Dream]

[Heisy]

[MGorse]

42 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Mt. Holly always goes super aggressive and refuses to back down. 12-18” is way too high here, I’d cut that in half. Yet it seems that they’ve doubled down overnight.

Latest HRRR still looks decent here but once again, the east bump is real. The I-81 area is now under a bust warning, it looks like they will get screwed by the subsidence zone. Another shift east or two and Allentown is next.

We are seeing that lowering of snow amounts in the guidance on the western edge. Banding may end up being east of Berks and the Lehigh Valley, or there could be dual banding with one extending into this area at least for a time tonight.

[BlueDXer75]

I think it’s nowcast time.  Let’s look at trends and see where the bands set up and low tracks.  I like the look of the RAP.  Not sure how good that model is though….

[Duca892]

Omfg NAM with its shift east lmfaooo

[MickeyTim6533]

Just now, Duca892 said:

Omfg NAM with its shift east lmfaooo

yeah, major bust potential

[Duca892]

Mets are going to get incorrectly destroyed on this one for the low totals that will happen. This was a SOB to even begin to forecast 

[MickeyTim6533]

2 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Mets are going to get incorrectly destroyed on this one for the low totals that will happen. This was a SOB to even begin to forecast 

fooled by the gfs I guess, it did lead the way.