BroadWing3544 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Morning folks. Gray and misty here in SEPA, just about ten minutes north of Wilmington. Temp hovering around 33-34*. Careful out there today, all! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Physicsteve Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Thanks for the thread and safe travels, @Mikeymac5306. Safe to say you have thread-making duties for the near future. May be a tough one to top though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I went 7-14" for mby Friday evening for this storm. Im sticking with that range and feel pretty good right now. 7 probably the low end here at worst but I could see up to 14 as a possibility. I won't be angry if I bust low tho. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 My final call for Berks and Lehigh Valley is 4-8". I think the NWS will begin to trim back on the totals further NW in their next package. All of the western learners (NAM, HRRR, SREFs) are shifting east now as they were (unsurprisingly) too amplified with the trough and mid-level lows. I can see a scenario where parts of this area get screwed between the IVT to the west and CCB to the east. We'll see how the cards are dealt, I hope I'm wrong and areas to the NW get in on the goods. I will say, one way this area could exceed expectations is in the daytime snow today. I will be signing off from the storm for much of the rest of the day, good luck everyone! 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 This may be the widest range of forecasts I have seen for a snowstorm in quite some time up here in the Lehigh Valley. The NWS is all in at 10-20”. The Weather Channel is basically out - 4-6”. AccuWeather splits the difference at 6-10”. Local meteo at WFMZ is all in as well at 8-14”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairie Dog Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Joe Cioffo of the famed Joe and Joe Weather show just upped his total for my area to 15 to 20 inches. He pushed the area wet of Philly up as well. This was 7 AM. His reasoning is some of the short range models are not picking up the underlying explosive dynamics of the storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I went 7-14" for mby Friday evening for this storm. Im sticking with that range and feel pretty good right now. 7 probably the low end here at worst but I could see up to 14 as a possibility. I won't be angry if I bust low tho.I’m same, been telling my friends/family 8-14”. If we do get under 10 though I’ll never doubt the Canadians again. Honestly, should have a good idea by early afternoon based on how the radar looks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Wet flakes lightly falling very lazily....like slo motion. 34F Eta: just walked outside it is spitting (rain) with mangled wet flakes mixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Mt. Holly always goes super aggressive and refuses to back down. 12-18” is way too high here, I’d cut that in half. Yet it seems that they’ve doubled down overnight. Latest HRRR still looks decent here but once again, the east bump is real. The I-81 area is now under a bust warning, it looks like they will get screwed by the subsidence zone. Another shift east or two and Allentown is next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Latest hrrr really shaved totals. General 6-12 extreme eastern pa and NJ lollis to 18" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I hate to be that annoying downer guy… but holy shit I can’t believe this happening… for models to hit over and over and over for 12in+ at the last second to start finally pushing east and for this to really be a borderline warning event for the Lehigh Valley is truly laughable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I am going with 8" to 12" out here in NW Chesco Currently Mist and 34.3 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 This is the exact kind of storm where the Lehigh Valley can get screwed by the geography of the area. Hi-res models have been hinting at this ever since they came into range, including the latest HRRR which gives the Poconos and Philly burbs 12-18” yet Allentown struggles to get to 6”. The same thing happened here during Boxing Day, although this one doesn’t look like as big of a bust. Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Latest hrrr really shaved totals. General 6-12 extreme eastern pa and NJ lollis to 18" Yikes. Not a pretty sight for those of us on the NW edges. At this point I'll be happy to get 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 ouch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 HRRR is a disaster and if it kept trending that way Warnings would be cancelled by this evening in the LV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 29 minutes ago, Prairie Dog said: Joe Cioffo of the famed Joe and Joe Weather show just upped his total for my area to 15 to 20 inches. He pushed the area wet of Philly up as well. This was 7 AM. His reasoning is some of the short range models are not picking up the underlying explosive dynamics of the storm Did you catch the part of the show where they shared information about the European model isn’t what it used to be. There were changes made to it and it isn’t the same “Dr. No” ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Latest hrrr really shaved totals. General 6-12 extreme eastern pa and NJ lollis to 18" Huh? https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022212&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= shaved totals for berks and Lehigh valley, 95 corridor and NJ look just about the same as 6z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Huh? https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022212&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= shaved totals for berks and Lehigh valley, 95 corridor and NJ look just about the same 19” looks just fine to me. Hopefully the sharp cut off is overdone for our north and west friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Huh? https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022212&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= shaved totals for berks and Lehigh valley, 95 corridor and NJ look just about the same as 6z TT looms very different. I think we discussed this before it is either the ratios each respective outlet uses or one factors mixing i cant recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: TT looms very different. I think we discussed this before it is either the ratios each respective outlet uses or one factors mixing i cant recall. Tt looks the same? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2026022212&fh=1 I always use the 10:1 maps especially with these systems. You’re using the snow depth maps which again haven’t changed from 6z for those areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Latest hrrr really shaved totals. General 6-12 extreme eastern pa and NJ lollis to 18"Here in Bensalem I’m hoping I’m far enough east to clip the edge of the extreme banding that sets up later today/tonight. Here is 12z NAM h7, can see it’s trending farther EAfter the NAM I’m turning off the models though so I don’t stress myself out lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 42 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Mt. Holly always goes super aggressive and refuses to back down. 12-18” is way too high here, I’d cut that in half. Yet it seems that they’ve doubled down overnight. Latest HRRR still looks decent here but once again, the east bump is real. The I-81 area is now under a bust warning, it looks like they will get screwed by the subsidence zone. Another shift east or two and Allentown is next. We are seeing that lowering of snow amounts in the guidance on the western edge. Banding may end up being east of Berks and the Lehigh Valley, or there could be dual banding with one extending into this area at least for a time tonight. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I think it’s nowcast time. Let’s look at trends and see where the bands set up and low tracks. I like the look of the RAP. Not sure how good that model is though…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Omfg NAM with its shift east lmfaooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Duca892 said: Omfg NAM with its shift east lmfaooo yeah, major bust potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Mets are going to get incorrectly destroyed on this one for the low totals that will happen. This was a SOB to even begin to forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Duca892 said: Mets are going to get incorrectly destroyed on this one for the low totals that will happen. This was a SOB to even begin to forecast fooled by the gfs I guess, it did lead the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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