“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[SeanInWayland]

32 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

Before I take my pants off, someone assure me that somewhere there exists a study presenting some evidence of the increased skill of the NBM methodology.

OK, never mind, taking pants off

[tunafish]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everyone inside that swath of vorticity over S NH should have a shot at 2'+

This one?

 

[MuddyWx]

0z NAM bufkit at ORH. Ratios consistently 15-18:1. Not sure how much the wind knocks that down though.. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

How much pack do you guys have up in NE MASS, I’m down to 6-8”

Just SE of BOS. Varies but shade has like 15 or so. 

[codfishsnowman]

3 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

I am not saying you or I, but someone's going to get f'n porked with exhaust on either side 3-5" hour rates , wherever those static bands set up.  <970 mb lol and maturing low with h5 south of us doesn't scream widespread 2'

I thought it was good to have H5 go underneath one's area 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, tunafish said:

This one?

 

Yup

[Prismshine Productions]

Albany played it safe:

Winter Storm Watch, not upgraded yet, 4-8"

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, codfishsnowman said:

I thought it was good to have H5 go underneath one's area 

It is, but you want it passing underneath you at max intensification rate, not after it's matured.

[met_fan]

15 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Fuck the CTRV snow shadow

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

 Better than the Hudson shadow

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, met_fan said:

 Better than the Hudson shadow

One saving grace with MRV where I am...yea, I'm prone to subsidence from low level deformation near the coast, as we all know...but I don't get shadowed here.

[MuddyWx]

PVD NAM bufkit is 3ft lol

[Masswx]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Heaviest has trended NW, too....from SE MA to s ORH CO/N RI

This looks like it’s kuchera ratio no model shows a jack there in 10:1

[moneypitmike]

For the three people who care, here's the GYX map.  It has the 8-12" band within spitting distance of me.

[vortex95]

59 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s got like 0.50” QPF per hour for a couple panels, ha.

I don't think CoastalWx could handle that!!!  LOL.   Too much PT at once!

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

PVD NAM bufkit is 3ft lol

Yes Ijd is 30 and look at the fukin wind gust at PVD

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

01z Feb 22 NBM (takeaway being that it trended up ingesting the evolving mix of models):

I like this better than the wxbell version...where do you get that?

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

PVD NAM bufkit is 3ft lol

My wife will have fun shoveling that.  

Even more funny is how bad the roads will be........narrow roads with on-street parking.  It will be a disaster.

[Masswx]

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Masswx said:

This looks like it’s kuchera ratio no model shows a jack there in 10:1

It's proprietary...not kuchera.

[Masswx]

Just now, Masswx said:

Final call

[HoarfrostHubb]

Expand the 12-18 west

[Henry's Weather]

Those with good memories - how does the guidance for this storm compare with Jan 2022?

[Masswx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's proprietary...not kuchera.

Looks similar to all the models using kuchera thats all

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes Ijd is 30 and look at the fukin wind gust at PVD

 

Nice that the peak winds and snows will be taking place during the day.

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just SE of BOS. Varies but shade has like 15 or so. 

12 shade 8 on level. JESUS you will have close to 40 by Wednesday 

[Digityman]

14 minutes ago, tunafish said:

This one?

 

Let's hope that sits over us.  I'm ok with 12+

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

12 shade 8 on level. JESUS you will have close to 40 by Wednesday 

Thoughts on drifts in blizzard warning zones?  

[MuddyWx]

PVD NAM bufkit.. my god. From 10z to 16z - 24", 30mph winds, 50-60mph gusts 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Masswx said:

Looks similar to all the models using kuchera thats all

Yea, because I'm sure it's greater than 10:1.....just saying it's not kuchera, though it maybe similar. my F5 site has a similar proprietary ratio formula.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Plow banks will be epic with this