The 4 Seasons Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 AI GFS is not that different from 18Z its a tick SE but just a hair. Still a very big hit for most but who knows when its done correcting SE, the thing was over HFD yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: That probably deforms from me to Ineedsnow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Gfs caving too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 This storm gone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t disagree, we had a pretty special SWFE. However, in context of this event, I think the odds are fading fast with each model run. It has been an odd season. We’ve had clippers and solid SWFEs and I don’t think any true cutters, but coastals have not been easy to come by, at all. I do think the easing of the Arctic press and ridging out west helps increase the odds of something popping close enough, but still, nothing coming easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Check back tomorrow guys. This could be the typical range where the models lose it. Night 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Theres been hardly a true rain storm, stem winder with 50s and 60s spiking up through new england that we see so often each winter. Kinda been more like 2015 than anything with a lot of cold and no real rainers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 GFS is adios, shocker. Gonna be the theme rest of 00Z i suspect. Hopefully tom. is better, but i wouldn't push any chips in on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: GFS is adios, shocker. Gonna be the theme rest of 00Z i suspect. Hopefully tom. is better, but i wouldn't push any chips in on that. we just need euro AI to hold onto it and gfs ai seems locked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 the one time the euro is doing the best this year is when it has a shitty outcome. gotta love it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the one time the euro is doing the best this year is when it has a shitty outcome. gotta love it Told ya, I wasn't being sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Told ya, I wasn't being sarcastic. why must it be that way, though? it doesn’t make actual scientific sense. it’s just a big cosmic middle finger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: why must it be that way, though? it doesn’t make actual scientific sense. it’s just a big cosmic middle finger Sometimes the cosmic butt-plug is sense enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Eh, never know, maybe the Euro is just jaded during a great winter and will come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 The one thing I will say is that the tellies dont scream a major snowstorm with a positive NAO and negative PNA. There is some left over blocking with a decaying block and a brief pna spike but not sure if its enough. The euro is most likely seeing that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Avoiding the glue factory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 While I remain against it, this isn't over...guidance will try to rope everyone back in at some point, rest assured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 4 hours ago, dendrite said: This is just a weird way to squash it and other models have a much different look Gotta love all of the 00z ops following suit now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 28 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Theres been hardly a true rain storm, stem winder with 50s and 60s spiking up through new england that we see so often each winter. Kinda been more like 2015 than anything with a lot of cold and no real rainers. Ideal in that regard. Let’s get one nuclear cutter to flood New England 1936 (lite) style. (I kid…I kid) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 When you come at the king, you best not miss 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: Gotta love all of the 00z ops following suit now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 20 minutes ago, dendrite said: Gotta love all of the 00z ops following suit now I referenced that confluece N of ME in my write up...although the ridging out west had trended better, that confluence has trended enough in the other direction to negate. ..other guidance was missing that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I referenced that confluece N of ME in my write up...although the ridging out west had trended better, that confluence has trended enough in the other direction to negate. ..other guidance was missing that. The two pieces of energy in the northern plains were weaker and flatter on the 0z runs long before they ran into that confluence, which looks like an effect of the weaker trough, not a cause. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: This is one is gaining legs very quickly across all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I would say the tough part is the 2 feet shown on some model runs. With that said, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to have many pull out 6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 19 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Cancelled We knew 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 Euro OTS. Euro AI though… NOT BAD. GFS is now all of a sudden OTS GFS AI though.. STILL a scraper of a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 AI gfs is gone too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: AI gfs is gone too. Yup she gone.. sucks could of been good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Yup she gone.. sucks could of been good Now we close the shades based on medium range look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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