“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[The 4 Seasons]

AI GFS is not that different from 18Z its a tick SE but just a hair. Still a very big hit for most but who knows when its done correcting SE, the thing was over HFD yesterday. 

[The 4 Seasons]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

That probably deforms from me to Ineedsnow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gfs caving too.

[Masswx]

This storm gone 

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t disagree, we had a pretty special SWFE. However, in context of this event, I think the odds are fading fast with each model run.

It has been an odd season. We’ve had clippers and solid SWFEs and I don’t think any true cutters, but coastals have not been easy to come by, at all.

I do think the easing of the Arctic press and ridging out west helps increase the odds of something popping close enough, but still, nothing coming easy. 

[MJO812]

Check back tomorrow guys. This could be the typical range where the models lose it.

Night

[The 4 Seasons]

Theres been hardly a true rain storm, stem winder with 50s and 60s spiking up through new england that we see so often each winter. Kinda been more like 2015 than anything with a lot of cold and no real rainers.

[The 4 Seasons]

GFS is adios, shocker. Gonna be the theme rest of 00Z i suspect. Hopefully tom. is better, but i wouldn't push any chips in on that. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

GFS is adios, shocker. Gonna be the theme rest of 00Z i suspect. Hopefully tom. is better, but i wouldn't push any chips in on that. 

we just need euro AI to hold onto it and gfs ai seems locked 

[brooklynwx99]

the one time the euro is doing the best this year is when it has a shitty outcome. gotta love it 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the one time the euro is doing the best this year is when it has a shitty outcome. gotta love it 

Told ya, I wasn't being sarcastic.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Told ya, I wasn't being sarcastic.

why must it be that way, though? it doesn’t make actual scientific sense. it’s just a big cosmic middle finger 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

why must it be that way, though? it doesn’t make actual scientific sense. it’s just a big cosmic middle finger 

Sometimes the cosmic butt-plug is sense enough.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Eh, never know, maybe the Euro is just jaded during a great winter and will come around. 

[MJO812]

The one thing I will say is that the tellies dont scream a major snowstorm with a positive NAO and negative PNA. There is some left over blocking with a decaying block and a brief pna spike but not sure if its enough.  The euro is most likely seeing that.

[ORH_wxman]

Avoiding the glue factory 

[40/70 Benchmark]

While I remain against it, this isn't over...guidance will try to rope everyone back in at some point, rest assured. 

[dendrite]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

This is just a weird way to squash it and other models have a much different look

Gotta love all of the 00z ops following suit now

[WxWatcher007]

28 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Theres been hardly a true rain storm, stem winder with 50s and 60s spiking up through new england that we see so often each winter. Kinda been more like 2015 than anything with a lot of cold and no real rainers.

Ideal in that regard. Let’s get one nuclear cutter to flood New England 1936 (lite) style.  
 

(I kid…I kid)

[The 4 Seasons]

When you come at the king, you best not miss

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Gotta love all of the 00z ops following suit now

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Gotta love all of the 00z ops following suit now

I referenced that confluece N of ME in my write up...although the ridging out west had trended better, that confluence has trended enough in the other direction to negate. ..other guidance was missing that.

[RDRY]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I referenced that confluece N of ME in my write up...although the ridging out west had trended better, that confluence has trended enough in the other direction to negate. ..other guidance was missing that.

The two pieces of energy in the northern plains were weaker and flatter on the 0z runs long before they ran into that confluence, which looks like an effect of the weaker trough, not a cause.

[MJO812]

12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is one is gaining legs very quickly across all guidance. 

[weathafella]

I would say the tough part is the 2 feet shown on some model runs.  With that said, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to have many pull out 6-12

[CoastalWx]

19 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Cancelled 

We knew 

[TheSnowman]

Euro OTS.

Euro AI though… NOT BAD.  

GFS is now all of a sudden OTS

GFS AI though..  STILL a scraper of a big storm  

[CoastalWx]

AI gfs is gone too. 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

AI gfs is gone too. 

Yup she gone.. sucks could of been good

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Yup she gone.. sucks could of been good

Now we close the shades based on medium range look.