The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[MJO812]

On 2/27/2026 at 7:06 AM, bluewave said:

Just try being a little less triggered by me pointing how our winters have been changing as our climate has been warming. I am very happy how this winter has turned out as it matched one of my scenarios issued a while ago about a potential rebound winter coming after the series of duds that we had in recent years.

So far my guess that it would be a struggle to reach 50” in NYC has turned out to be correct. Notice that NYC, LGA, and JFK are all in the 43-45” range and places like EWR and ISP are over 50”. Also mentioned that ISP reached over 50” in 2017-2018 and that it would be easier for them to do it again in the future which happened this year.

Also pointed out how the banding effects with major benchmark snowstorms and the heat island contribute to  give areas east and west of NYC more snowfall. I also believe it’s related to the terrain effects in the NY Bight allowing a snowband over NNJ and across Long Island. I also said that we haven’t had a winter near 32° since 2014-2015. So I am happy that we finally got one this year.

But you will notice that we had 4 winters around 32° during the 2010s and 50”+ of snow and only 1 during the 2020s so far. So winters like this have been declining in recent years with how much warmers our winters have become.

Was also pointing out how after the 2015-2016 jump in winter temperatures it would be a challenge for our region to rival 1995-1996 snowfall, PA to see their all-time snowfall matched again like in 1993-1994, places around Detroit and the Great Lakes to match 2013-2014 snow and cold, DC to Philly to match 2009-2010 snowfall, and Boston to rival their 2014-2015 snowfall.

My guess why none of these locations could even come close with the extended cold this winter is due to how small the geographic area of the cold was during this winter. This was the first time a cold and snowy winter like this in the Northeast occurred against the background of one of the warmest CONUS winters and Northern Hemisphere winters. So it put those legacy winters out of reach due to how small an area was covered by the shrinking cold pool.

Since I am a big winter weather enthusiast, it would make me very happy for NYC to go over 50” before the season ends. By mentioning that it would be a challenge to reach 50” isn’t the same thing as saying impossible which I would never do. 

The reason that I even started this discussion years ago was due to the fact that at least in NYC, they need a winter near 32.0° as a prerequisite to reach 50” of snow. I also pointed out to you that this wasn’t the case for other stations outside the heat island.

So it’s necessary for NYC to average near 32.0° to have a shot at 50” but not always sufficient. The fact that we get fewer winters this cold in a warming climate shrinks the number of chances NYC gets to reach this winter milestone. 

We don’t really know how long we’ll have to wait again to see another winter this cold and snowy again since the last one was 11 years ago.

Instead of you misrepresenting others ideas, why don’t you try to issue some of your own. 

 

 

 

Last year was also a cold winter but this winter is on another level. Maybe we are turning the corner.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

NWS has a great page for the storm.

Radar loop as well as surface map loop.

 

[Brian5671]

On 2/28/2026 at 11:11 AM, MJO812 said:

Last year was also a cold winter but this winter is on another level. Maybe we are turning the corner.

Got the 2 big storms this year (we also missed 2).  That's what was missing last year it was all nickel and dime events

[Sampson]

7 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

 

[The 4 Seasons]

On 2/24/2026 at 8:17 AM, donsutherland1 said:

The final precipitation for NYC was 1.92". The NBM came closest while many of the global models, especially the ECMWF and UKMET badly underforecast the precipitation.

The QPF and snowfall amounts were trimmed further by 6z on February 22. Some of the social media "forecasters" chased the models into a dead-end and missed the much larger magnitude of snowfall. As noted previously, social media (and increasingly TV) isn't a good source of credible weather information. Anyone can play forecaster where meteorological knowledge is superficial, hype reigns and verification is non-existent.

A potent clue that the "low-balled" idea was a bad one rest in the storm's forecast dynamics. Explosively deepening and super intense storms have very efficient and powerful dynamics that maximize snowfall. One saw such a case during February 11-12, 2006. The blizzard's dynamics outran the models and the forecasts. What had been expected to be about a foot of snow in NYC wound up being 26.9". Forecast amounts were increased several times when the blizzard was underway.  

The region experienced a top-tier blizzard.

Newark experienced its first-ever case of two consecutive days with 10.0" or above snowfall: February 22: 10.1"; February 23: 17.1". Records go back to May 1843.

In terms of verification, I had several large errors (4" or more outside of the forecast range), as the snowfall was far more intense in Islip and Providence than I had forecast. That intense banding was likely somewhere on Long Island and Rhode Island/southeast Massachusetts was not the issue. Placement of the banding was the issue for me. Even with today's mesoscale guidance, the placement of banding often isn't possible until the storm is underway and the banding is developing/has developed.

The NWS did a terrific job in its forecasting. Mount Holly's, Taunton's, and Upton's discussions and forecasts were outstanding in advance of the storm and throughout the storm.

Finally, the blizzard lifted winter 2025-2026 into a Top 25 place for New York City where records go back to Winter 1869-1870. Additional snowfall would lock in a Top 25-Top 30 ranking.

Didn't realize LGA changed their number from 22.5 to 23.4. 

I'll have to fix that in the map

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Didn't realize LGA changed their number from 22.5 to 23.4. 

I'll have to fix that in the map

And central Park ignored all of the snow from 1 PM to 4 PM that day and stuck with 19.7. Typical and happens more often than not.

[The 4 Seasons]

13 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

And central Park ignored all of the snow from 1 PM to 4 PM that day and stuck with 19.7. Typical and happens more often than not.

melting snow on the sensors...

[donsutherland1]

52 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Didn't realize LGA changed their number from 22.5 to 23.4. 

I'll have to fix that in the map

Thanks. I wasn't aware of it either.