The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Ratios with this will be like 9-10:1 probably because the wild winds.  It may be 27-29 by the time winds really ramp up but if we are as gusty as 12/26/10 we saw what happened then 

That storm on the Long Beach boardwalk was the best winter storm experience I’ve ever had. Wind with intensity even though the heaviest was over NJ. Thunder snow on 12/30/00 second best. My mom passed away recently so I can’t stay at her house for this but my place is fine. 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, David-LI said:

mid levels look good for 12:1 no?

Yeah but if we are 30 gusting 45-50 I don’t think it’ll be that high 

[Wxbear25]

UKMET coming in more amped for sure

Gotta wonder why all of the foreign global models except the JMA seemed to struggle with this one... very odd

[David-LI]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah but if we are 30 gusting 45-50 I don’t think it’ll be that high 

oh right makes sense,

 

heck we might get 50” drift accumulation somwhere then

[SACRUS]

ukmet 979 off delmarva

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

That storm on the Long Beach boardwalk was the best winter storm experience I’ve ever had. Wind with intensity even though the heaviest was over NJ. Thunder snow on 12/30/00 second best. My mom passed away recently so I can’t stay at her house for this but my place is fine. 

sorry about ur mom John

[Nibor]

Boom

[nycsnow]

Ukie tucking in

[njwx7]

Just now, Wxbear25 said:

UKMET coming in more amped for sure

Gotta wonder why all of the foreign global models except the JMA seemed to struggle with this one... very odd

[Allsnow]

UKMET 00z is a absolute beauty 

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

mid levels look good for 12:1 no?

Yes.  Especially in heavier bands.

[MJO812]

[boxingdayblizzard]

UKMET 

[Nibor]

Ukmet is usually a precursor to the Euro. Should be a good run coming after midnight.

[boxingdayblizzard]

UKMET more tucked than previous runs for sure, beauty at 968 MB

[SnoSki14]

Someone's getting 3-4"+ rates and thundersnow. The frontogenesis is ridiculous 

[SACRUS]

 

2/21 00z UKMET

Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23 - 24  (expected more)

 

Snow 10:1

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, boxingdayblizzard said:

UKMET 

 

Anyone worried about rain should see how that rain/snow line crashes rapidly even as the low barely moves. This storm is very dynamic! 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

sorry about ur mom John

Thanks

[MANDA]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah but if we are 30 gusting 45-50 I don’t think it’ll be that high 

I think the winds will break up the dendrites and slightly temper accumulations but I don't think this is going to be a wet paste type of snow that clings to everything such that it will bring down trees and power lines.  Not going to be champagne powder either.

[jm1220]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

Anyone worried about rain should see how that rain/snow line crashes rapidly even as the low barely moves. This storm is very dynamic! 

This isn't a rain snow line storm. It's where's the phase and mid level low tracks/how soon do they close off. And so far they're all trending more favorable every run. 

[MANDA]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

sorry about ur mom John

So sorry.  Truly.  

[wthrmn654]

Moderate coastal flooding was already expected this keeps up moderate and major coastal impacts are going be happening! 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, boxingdayblizzard said:

UKMET more tucked than previous runs for sure, beauty at 968 MB

I don't buy the lighter precip with an intensifying storm. That seems to be a big difference between the snowier models vs the less snowy ones

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/21 00z Summary

Total QPF NYC / Total 10:1 Snow NYC

SREF:  1.5 / 14.1
NAM: 2.3 / 22.3
ICON: 1.8 / 16.7
RGEM: 1.0 / 9.2
GFS: 1.9 / 19.1
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.6 / 16
GGEM: 1.4 / 13.5
UKMET: 1.0 / 11

 

Updated with UKMET

[SACRUS]

UKMET

[TJW014]

There is not a single model showing less than 12" for me. Mean average is 20". That's incredible.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Thanks

Very sorry for your loss 

my condolences to You and your family 

 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't buy the lighter precip with an intensifying storm. That seems to be a big difference between the snowier models vs the less snowy ones

Ukie is always wonky for some reason with its precip output

In the January storm it kept having that snow hole over nyc

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Someone's getting 3-4"+ rates and thundersnow. The frontogenesis is ridiculous 

If these trends hold absolutely.  Going to be some insane banding as this matures.