MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 18 inch mean on gefs for nyc 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, T5403CG said: I was thinking 12/2009... but it's just not big enough when compared to what this looks to be... Now I'm onto 78 or 96... 78 wins given the wind... there were drifts ten feet high on Long Island for that one... The 78 storm did run closer to the coast... introduced some freezing rain... but rarely do you get a monster storm without some mix, no matter how brief, on Long Island... wound up with two feet and 10 foot drifts... This looks to be shaping into a monster as well... hope when all is said and done it joins 78 and 96 as another classic... Good luck all... Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk i had 15 foot drifts in 96 in Bloomfield, NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T5403CG Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Yeah this is much better than 12z on the canadian966 lowSent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: do you have the numbers from 18z? sorry to bother u Sacrus 2/20 18z Summary Total QPF NYC 2/22 - 2/23-24 SFRE F: 1.0 NAM: 2.3 RGEM: 0.6 ICON: 1.2 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.5 GFS: 2.2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 CMC gets the low down to 966 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 11 minutes ago, Rjay said: What do you expect him to forecast at this lead time? I think it's fair. He should mention there's a chance of a lot more. Agreed. We here can imagine the possibilities without risk of being ridiculed for all eternity like he would be if he called for 30" and we ended up with 4. Upton's unprecedented High End / Low End disparity of 24-30" at one end and 0.5" at the other is off putting to me. I don't think I've seen even an 8" forecast storm with a 0.5" low end. Whatever is driving that would spook me from putting any huge numbers up too. You call for 15" and you get 25", no one will remember. You call for 25" and get 0.5" , no one will forget, ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: 18 inch mean on gefs for nyc thats crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, boxingdayblizzard said: 1 in line to NYC as it's shutting down Seems to still be in trending toward gfs mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 hours ago, SACRUS said: 2/21 00z Summary Total QPF NYC / Total 10:1 Snow NYC SREF: 1.5 / 14.1 NAM: 2.3 / 22.3 ICON: 1.8 / 16.7 RGEM: 1.0 / 9.2 GFS: 1.9 / 19.1 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.6 / 16 GGEM: 1.4 / 13.5 Updated with the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, T5403CG said: 966 low Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk god bless your Motorola Edge 2024 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Ratios with this will be like 9-10:1 probably because the wild winds. It may be 27-29 by the time winds really ramp up but if we are as gusty as 12/26/10 we saw what happened then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Allsnow said: CMC gets the low down to 966 At 500mb this is our meteo Mona Lisa. Maybe she smiles in a certain way for you, me, Orange County, Riverhead but we’re in for a slamming. Nothing else to say. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: CMC gets the low down to 966 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Seems to still be in trending toward gfs mode. Kept going quite a bit after this too and got a few more inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 96 started sunday morning as well and friday night forecasts were like 3 to 6 By Saturday morning after 12Z cycle everyone was going ape shit. Remember it well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Tea time with the UKMET runing to 30 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Ratios with this will be like 9-10:1 probably because the wild winds. It may be 27-29 by the time winds really ramp up but if we are as gusty as 12/26/10 we saw what happened then mid levels look good for 12:1 no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: At 500mb this is our meteo Mona Lisa. Maybe she smiles in a certain way for you, me, Orange County, Riverhead but we’re in for a slamming. Nothing else to say. Yup, it’s one of the very few times since 2021 that everything seems to be coming together inside 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Ratios with this will be like 9-10:1 probably because the wild winds. It may be 27-29 by the time winds really ramp up but if we are as gusty as 12/26/10 we saw what happened then That storm on the Long Beach boardwalk was the best winter storm experience I’ve ever had. Wind with intensity even though the heaviest was over NJ. Thunder snow on 12/30/00 second best. My mom passed away recently so I can’t stay at her house for this but my place is fine. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, David-LI said: mid levels look good for 12:1 no? Yeah but if we are 30 gusting 45-50 I don’t think it’ll be that high 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 UKMET coming in more amped for sure Gotta wonder why all of the foreign global models except the JMA seemed to struggle with this one... very odd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah but if we are 30 gusting 45-50 I don’t think it’ll be that high oh right makes sense, heck we might get 50” drift accumulation somwhere then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 ukmet 979 off delmarva 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: That storm on the Long Beach boardwalk was the best winter storm experience I’ve ever had. Wind with intensity even though the heaviest was over NJ. Thunder snow on 12/30/00 second best. My mom passed away recently so I can’t stay at her house for this but my place is fine. sorry about ur mom John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Boom 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Ukie tucking in 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njwx7 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Wxbear25 said: UKMET coming in more amped for sure Gotta wonder why all of the foreign global models except the JMA seemed to struggle with this one... very odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 UKMET 00z is a absolute beauty 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: mid levels look good for 12:1 no? Yes. Especially in heavier bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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