Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[stormtracker]

Scratch that...it's a little drier in the later panels than 6z...but the earlier precip probably evens it out

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

looks south, but im clueless so who knows

 

You can't be serious

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, GFS looks a good bit better than 6z so far...but still don't think it's going to do what we need

keep us close heading into the final 72 hours with that upper low closing off right over us and the inverted trough around and we have a shot at something going out way.  But there is so much noise in front of this both it terms of how the blocking north of us evolves (and yes there is blocking...look at the flow over top of us, the Hudson High is doing it's job) and all the little SWs flying around.  I think there are likely to continue to be some changes up until the very end here...so I just want us close enough that these changes could make a difference for us.  

[wxmeddler]

Horrible run to run consistency with the GFS so far. But this run looks good at h96 thus far. 

[LP08]

Need this thing to really amp and wrap up.  Surface temps are terrible even with the digital blue.  A nice step forward for a change though.

[SnowenOutThere]

GFS looks pretty good. 

[psuhoffman]

maybe my bar is low but it looks a lot better to me 

[TSSN+]

[Solution Man]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

keep us close heading into the final 72 hours with that upper low closing off right over us and the inverted trough around and we have a shot at something going out way.  But there is so much noise in front of this both it terms of how the blocking north of us evolves (and yes there is blocking...look at the flow over top of us, the Hudson High is doing it's job) and all the little SWs flying around.  I think there are likely to continue to be some changes up until the very end here...so I just want us close enough that these changes could make a difference for us.  

Blocking…..yes

[SnowenOutThere]

All of this is frozen I believe 

[TSSN+]

Bring it back 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

All of this is frozen I believe 

Still some more to go for VA at the hour I took this snapshot

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

All of this is frozen I believe 

That’s a 3-5 look

[wxmeddler]

Yeah, it's a good hit. The H5 really digs. Need another scoot 150 mi west, that's asking for a lot though. (It will be 300mi east next run)

[stormtracker]

I like how people are in suspense when we already told them what the model shows past beyond where they are in the show 

[Paleocene]

Temps on the gfs are marginal for the cities. As in above the margin lol. Love the track tho

[SnowenOutThere]

10-1 ratios 

[Interstate]

The GFS is close to a Blizzard or a Cat 3 Hurricane

[Scraff]

We are sooooooo back! Time to tailgate……

 

 

 

 

 

…..for the US Hockey game at 3:10. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Interstate said:

The GFS is close to a Blizzard

Not really, its mainly detached from the coastal. Instead its a great H5 pass I think with a good amount of moisture fetch to squeeze it out. The real blizzard conditions are reserved for the Atlantic ocean. 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Not really, its mainly detached from the coastal. Instead its a great H5 pass I think with a good amount of moisture fetch to squeeze it out. The real blizzard conditions are reserved for the Atlantic ocean. 

Yep... that is why I said Close... just need a couple of things to happen

[Terpeast]

Main takeaway so far is we're not out of this yet. I was hoping for higher confidence today, but looks like confidence will remain low until at least 0z Friday. Yes it sounds like I'm kicking the can, and maybe I am. But all these vorts flying around and a minor change can make a huge difference. This isn't a typical SS wave casually approaching from the SW in a linear manner.

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Temps on the gfs are marginal for the cities. As in above the margin lol. Love the track tho

One plus of this IVT scenario is that it’s mostly after dark Sunday evening so no solar radiation concerns and slightly better temps. Otherwise, a lot less pluses lol

[LP08]

As noted previously, CMC looks like the RGEM through 84.  

[Interstate]

The CMC will lead the way...

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Yep... that is why I said Close... just need a couple of things to happen

Not really! I'm saying that this run is probably further off of a real blizzard than some of its runs yesterday. The mechanism that allowed for us to get near 6 inches of snow is different than the mechanism that would promote a blizzard. Yes, the two are linked, but we would need a dramatic change with the H5 low capturing the surface low instead of simply providing upper level diffluence which promotes lift of the moisture fetch from the Atlantic! 

[Shad]

Liking the trends this morning....is this thing really going to bomb out offshore and hug the coast........  will keep my expectations low!

[SnowenOutThere]

CMC will be a vort pass over out latitude 

[LP08]

CMC looks real good at 96

[Shad]

also is this no longer a miller B?   was worried about this running up the apps a day or 2 ago