Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[mappy]

18 minutes ago, mappy said:

When will yall learn that snow maps are shit, especially in marginal setups. 

Qpf and knowing your climo is key. 

Ok back on topic. I looked at the gfs. Gfs is lol with snow maps. I’m 34/33 for most of event, with maybe .2 at the end with temps at 32/31. Snow map is 5” at 10:1. lol no way. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Ok back on topic. I looked at the gfs. Gfs is lol with snow maps. I’m 34/33 for most of event, with maybe .2 at the end with temps at 32/31. Snow map is 5” at 10:1. lol no way. 

Where you see that? I got you at 30-31 dropping to 28ish. But doesn’t matter 0z, 6z, 12z etc will have something different 

[WxUSAF]

End of a long thread

 

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Where you see that? I got you at 30-31 dropping to 28ish. But doesn’t matter 0z, 6z, 12z etc will have something different 

The model? I didn’t look at soundings, but I don’t get below freezing until after 4, most the qpf is done for me by this point 

[Ralph Wiggum]

15 minutes ago, bncho said:

@stormtracker, you have been summoned
 

There are at least 3 that need to be 5-posted or even banned. Let the rest of us enjoy what may be one of the last trackable events of the season.

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

The model? I didn’t look at soundings, but I don’t get below freezing until after 4, most the qpf is done for me by this point 

Colder on here so idk qpf may go little longer than you think.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Colder on here so idk qpf may go little longer than you think.

Won’t matter probably when 0z has it over Istanbul. 

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Colder on here so idk qpf may go little longer than you think.

Cool. My point was and still is that snow maps are lol. But thanks anyways 

[winter_warlock]

31 minutes ago, mappy said:

Friend, I’ve been ignoring you for years . You only bother me when everyone falls for your bait and it sucks a thread into a black hole. 

Holy crap! Gotta love Mappys brutal honesty 

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Won’t matter probably when 0z has it over Istanbul. 

 Hmm wonder if it's too late to book a trip to Istanbul before Sunday 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Cool. My point was and still is that snow maps are lol. But thanks anyways 

They are especially lol day 2 and greater. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

They are especially lol day 2 and greater. 

Hence the nickname clown map, lol

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

 Hmm wonder if it's too late to book a trip to Istanbul before Sunday 

I heard L.U. rather be there so you should book it. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

They are especially lol day 2 and greater. 

They are useful in better setups when warm air isn’t present in any part of the column. Which lately, is hard to come by around here. But we love our pinks and purples 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, mappy said:

They are useful in better setups when warm air isn’t present in any part of the column. Which lately, is hard to come by around here. But we love our pinks and purples 

Lanina,doesn't help.. and of course..the dreaded southeast ridge! 

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Won’t matter probably when 0z has it over Istanbul. 

Nah don't worry all we'll need is 5 west ticks of 500 miles each to reel that baby back in!!!!

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

They are useful in better setups when warm air isn’t present in any part of the column. Which lately, is hard to come by around here. But we love our pinks and purples 

Oh the humanity. 2016 blizzard broke us. I’m still in shock I haven’t seen a storm over 9” since then. 

[mappy]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Oh the humanity. 2016 blizzard broke us. 

Now that was a steady as she goes for like a week of model tracking. When instead of worrying about a warm nose, or the column evap cooling… it was will I get 26 or 30 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Oh the humanity. 2016 blizzard broke us. 

Little did we know how long we'd be waiting for our next HECS, lol Sheesh

[Nomz]

1 hour ago, jewell2188 said:

Negative PNA AND NEUTRAL NAO means wiff for the a big nor’easter. We were already threading the needle with this setup, we don’t do well with that and I’m pretty sure I can count on one hand the last 20 years when we have. The current pattern doesn’t support the last 2 days of nonsense the day to day runs have been showing. But most in here are gullible and refuse to except it’s not happening. 

If we scored every time it wouldn't be fun.

[Solution Man]

Just now, Nomz said:

If we scored every time it wouldn't be fun.

Yes it would

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Yes it would

It would be a lot more fun.  Then we wouldn't be so jaded constantly expecting the worst outcome.

[Solution Man]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

It would be a lot more fun.  Then we wouldn't be so jaded constantly expecting the worst outcome.

^ This

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, Nomz said:

If we scored every time it wouldn't be fun.

lol speak for your backyard only 

[LordBaltimore]

1 hour ago, jewell2188 said:

Negative PNA AND NEUTRAL NAO means wiff for the a big nor’easter. We were already threading the needle with this setup, we don’t do well with that and I’m pretty sure I can count on one hand the last 20 years when we have. The current pattern doesn’t support the last 2 days of nonsense the day to day runs have been showing. But most in here are gullible and refuse to except it’s not happening. 

For the love of God can people stop using teleconnections like this? If all that weather prediction was was matching patterns then the AI models would win every time. Ironic because the AIFS is showing the best snow right now and it takes into account like several hundred million indexes besides the PNA and NAO speaking abstractly

[stormtracker]

53 minutes ago, mappy said:

Not a power I have

You know I'll follow yalls recommendation.  I'm too much of a softie.  But say the word

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You know I'll follow yalls recommendation.  I'm too much of a softie.  But say the word

Softie, ummmmmm...................Forget it. 

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You know I'll follow yalls recommendation.  I'm too much of a softie.  But say the word

If I could, I would. It wouldn’t be that bad if he said those things in banter or panic room. It’s just unnecessary here. 

[Solution Man]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You know I'll follow yalls recommendation.  I'm too much of a softie.  But say the word

Charges?

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You know I'll follow yalls recommendation.  I'm too much of a softie.  But say the word