Presidents' day Snow potential

[MJO812]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

For people like myself that like a long duration winter with a solid snow pack, but also realize that I do have a breaking point, Oneonta New York would be my sweet spot.

They average about 85 inches of snow per season. January and February average temperatures are about 20 to 22°. They get fringe squalls off the lake that drop an inch or two sometimes three at various times to freshen things up. They are close enough to Albany that they can still can cash in on some Noreasters and almost always cash in on any Miller B's and clippers. 
 

Having been through several winters that fell within that range of 70 to 100", usually by the end of March in those winters I'm ready for spring. 

You dont have to worry about parking up there. 

[RU848789]

So far, the NAM, NAM3km, RRFSA, ICON, HRW-FV3, RGEM and HRRR are all a bit snowier than 6Z, solidifying the likely 1-2" (with 3" in some areas where the best banding sets up) from Philly-Toms River up to a bit N of 80, IMO.  Hopefully, we see the same for the GFS/Euro/UK/CMC and the AI models.  

[jm1220]

48 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

For people like myself that like a long duration winter with a solid snow pack, but also realize that I do have a breaking point, Oneonta New York would be my sweet spot.

They average about 85 inches of snow per season. January and February average temperatures are about 20 to 22°. They get fringe squalls off the lake that drop an inch or two sometimes three at various times to freshen things up. They are close enough to Albany that they can still can cash in on some Noreasters and almost always cash in on any SWFE and clippers. 
 

Having been through several winters that fell within that range of 70 to 100", usually by the end of March in those winters I'm ready for spring. 

The I-88 corridor would be my perfect area as well. They get coastal storms as snow, some lake effect but not feet at a time and overall the best of winter. But other than snow very little to do or going on there. 

[MJO812]

Meh

[winterwx21]

I'm glad to see that the models stopped the trend of lowering amounts and beefed it back up slightly. Looks like a nice little 1 to 2 inch snowfall for this area tonight. At least it means we won't be shut out for February. 

[RU848789]

Nice jump up on the UK...(and a small bump up on the CMC, which looks just like the RGEM, of course).

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Nice jump up on the UK...(and a small bump up on the CMC, which looks just like the RGEM, of course).

This isnt far from a few inches here in Brooklyn. Hopefully we see more ticks by tonight.  

[SACRUS]

[MJO812]

Euro and AI slightly bumped north 

1-3 inches for the city

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and AI slightly bumped north 

1-3 inches for the city

HRRR has a bit more. I agree with 1-3" for most 

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

HRRR has a bit more. I agree with 1-3" for most 

Maybe even more near the south shore 

[winterwx21]

18z HRRR gives us close to 2 inches. I'd be very happy with that. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

18z HRRR gives us close to 2 inches. I'd be very happy with that. 

Good to see it increasing 

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

18z HRRR gives us close to 2 inches. I'd be very happy with that. 

Looks to fall with temps mostly at or above freezing so probably no shoveling 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks to fall with temps mostly at or above freezing so probably no shoveling 

Nam is slightly more north 

[weatherpruf]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks to fall with temps mostly at or above freezing so probably no shoveling 

so this will be gone by noon anyway

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

so this will be gone by noon anyway

Yep

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

18z HRRR gives us close to 2 inches. I'd be very happy with that. 

Hrrr back south. We get nothing

[WeatherGeek2025]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hrrr back south. We get nothing

1-3 inches is my call 1.5 for central park

[winterwx21]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hrrr back south. We get nothing

I've noticed that HRRR often does that on an off run after a major run. Looks good on the 18z run and then much different on the 19z run. It'll prob go back north on the next run. 

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I've noticed that HRRR often does that on an off run after a major run. Looks good on the 18z run and then much different on the 19z run. It'll prob go back north on the next run. 

Back north 

[TriPol]

41 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

1-3 inches is my call 1.5 for central park

You're about 1.4 inches too high.

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, TriPol said:

You're about 1.4 inches too high.

How do you figure?

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How do you figure?

The models are showing snow falling. Not accumulating. I don't know that it makes it down to 32 tonight in NYC. Maybe it does. But what is the timing? How much time between when the snow starts falling and us getting to 32 is there? An hour? Two? 

Maybe an inch and a half falls. But I doubt CPK measures anything above half an inch.

[NorthShoreWx]

I think the snow will have trouble accumulating on the old snow pack, especially since temperatures are now falling back towards freezing.  The new snow will rapidly melt the old snow.

/social commentary 

[BoulderWX]

Another trace - 2” ; cleans up the snow back until we get a good thaw this week to finally get rid of these piles. 

[TJW014]

I’m gonna go with 2” on top of the existing snowpack down here. 1” on bare surfaces. Nothing sticking to the roads unless rates are high enough. Maybe wake up to a surprise. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

42 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I think the snow will have trouble accumulating on the old snow pack, especially since temperatures are now falling back towards freezing.  The new snow will rapidly melt the old snow.

/social commentary 

I was 99.85% sure this was sarcasm, but I was waiting for someone smarter than me to laugh first.  Thanks Nibor.

[jm1220]

Such a nice looking storm heading east. Too bad it’ll be a minor graze. Just can’t get amplification in the right spot anymore. 

[Picard]

Doesn't look like much of anything coming north of 195, or is that because the radar is down?