Presidents' day Snow potential

[Rjay]

Been away all day.   Have at it. 

[Rjay]

Metsfan says it's coming

[MJO812]

Euro bumped north. Lets get more bumps.

[jm1220]

[Rjay]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Tony's snow map

 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, Rjay said:

Tony's snow map

 

Lmao 

[JonClaw]

00z GFS is a nice hit

[coastalplainsnowman]

14 minutes ago, JonClaw said:

00z GFS is a nice hit

if only I could get that 5 x 10 mile snow rectangle on LI to shift 3 miles south I'm in business.

[NorthShoreWx]

6 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

if only I could get that 5 x 10 mile snow rectangle on LI to shift 3 miles south I'm in business.

The good news, is that it snows outside of the rectangles.  

It's not gonna happen anyway because this thread was unlocked.

[MJO812]

Gfs

[Big Jims Videos]

Im not getting 9 inches here Sunday but I am intrigued.  Thanks GFS for the morning chuckle. 

[Northof78]

NAM welll north too….looks like a 2-4” storm for many of us…

[EasternLI]

OKX AFD:

Operational 00Z GFS and ECMWF continue to come in a bit farther
north with the low track. Ensembles still support a low track
well south of the area Sunday night into Monday, but the ECMWF
ensemble mean is slightly farther north and a couple of mb
stronger than previous run. The GFS ensemble mean is generally
the same track as the previous run, but also a couple of mb
deeper. The respective AI models are also a bit farther north,
now introducing some QPF into the forecast area, whereas
previous runs did not. This is likely due to the slightly more
amplified northern stream shortwave that allows the surface low
off shore to strengthen, bringing in more moisture into the
region. Chances for at least some minor accumulations have
increased. However, if the operational GFS verifies, we could
see high end advisory level snow across NYC, Long Island, and NE
NJ. Did not want to jump on board with something as drastic as
the GFS just yet, but if the northward trend continues, higher
snowfall would be expected. Right now, a 1-2" (closer to 1",
though locally higher amounts of 2" or slightly higher are
possible) is expected for much of Long Island, with all other
areas under an inch.
 

[nycsnow]

NBM increased 

[SnoSki14]

Hopefully we sneak a stat padder 1-3" type event. 

[nycsnow]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Hopefully we sneak a stat padder 1-3" type event. 

Agreed with potential like Upton says for high end advisory 

[SACRUS]

 

And  2/14 12z - we're off 

 

QPF

SERF

[nycsnow]

Precip field looks a lot better on nam

[nycsnow]

[EasternLI]

Yes, let's get these 2 waves together for Valentines day.

[nycsnow]

[stevieg]

New to this forum (and NYC) but it seems increasingly likely the area sees around 2-4” from this event especially with the latest NAM run

[SACRUS]

12z NAM total QPF

 

Maringal temps so enhanced rates will help deliver in the SE sections

 

[SACRUS]

 

NAM 10:1 not sure id use this area wide but none the less

[SnoSki14]

Pretty remarkable short term changes aloft with a defined trend. 

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

NAM 10:1 not sure id use this area wide but none the less

Mostly overnight to so should be easier to accumulate 

[nycsnow]

fv3 increased 

[Northof78]

Models honing in at least a 2-4" storm, but very close to a biggie

[Rjay]

15 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Models honing in at least a 2-4" storm, but very close to a biggie

 

[NEG NAO]

23 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Models honing in at least a 2-4" storm, but very close to a biggie

it will look like even more is on the ground because there still will be a thick layer of ice/snow underneath it plus side streets here are not fully plowed closer to the curbs with some cars still stuck in the ice