E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion

[zenmsav6810]

Plant your onions. 

[RedSky]

3 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said:

Plant your onions. 

correct that was a textbook onion snow in south and east areas

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

This winter has been persistent no matter what happens between now and Tax Day. One to remember. Here's a 360hr norlun for fun:

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This winter has been persistent no matter what happens between now and Tax Day. One to remember. Here's a 360hr norlun for fun:

And here is the euro in weenie range 

 Blocking is making a return on the models. Might be too late but we will see.

[RedSky]

ECM and GFS keep sending cold blasts through the end of the month no mercy

[JTA66]

I wasn't paying attention but didn't realize we were expecting wind today. Guess it makes sense with the storm in the lakes. Lost power earlier, just long enough to have to reset all the clocks.

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

I wasn't paying attention but didn't realize we were expecting wind today. Guess it makes sense with the storm in the lakes. Lost power earlier, just long enough to have to reset all the clocks.

Spring forward even more

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, JTA66 said:

I wasn't paying attention but didn't realize we were expecting wind today. Guess it makes sense with the storm in the lakes. Lost power earlier, just long enough to have to reset all the clocks.

Ditto on the power loss for a brief time today

[The Iceman]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

And here is the euro in weenie range 

 Blocking is making a return on the models. Might be too late but we will see.

Said it a few days ago,  but blocking signal for April is pretty strong at least the first half imo Problem is that late it really doesn’t matter at the coast. I think SNE or NNE is going to get smoked late month or early April though. Should make for a cool dreary first half of April for us.

[simbasad2]

Surprised nobody is mentioning the potential severe weather activity on Day-4

[LVblizzard]

10 hours ago, simbasad2 said:

Surprised nobody is mentioning the potential severe weather activity on Day-4

SPC put out an enhanced risk towards the Suquehanna River area. Would not be surprised to see that expanded north and east in later outlooks.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Even if we do get snow late in the month/early next month, unless it's really obvious, PHL is going to mark it as a trace. I'm still annoyed 4/2/2018 and 3/28/2022 were marked as trace. Both definitely had some accumulation, and should have been marked at least 0.1, if not 0.2

[ChescoWx]

Continued breezy today and tomorrow with below normal temperatures not far from 50 degrees. We briefly warm on Monday with highs well into the 60's before a strong cold front crosses the area not too long after the evening rush hour. Rain chances to ramp up tomorrow night with over an inch possible by later Monday. We could see some severe weather Monday evening. With the cold frontal passage Monday night, we could again see rain changing to wet snow with temperatures dropping over 20 degrees over a couple of hours. Tuesday and Wednesday will be unseasonably cold with highs barely above freezing on Tuesday and remaining in the 30's on Wednesday.

[JTA66]

Junk & stuff blowing around again, 46F.

[MJO812]

[JTA66]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Step aside PhiEagleguy, I got this one...

Ain't no way, no how, not ever, nope, nada, zero chance this gonna happen, not in 10 quadrillion, billion, zillion, google to the millionth power years.

But hey, it's fun to look at 

[RedSky]

This is the most atmospheric memory pattern ever when does it stop

This is what 4 SSWE can do

 

 

 

[LVblizzard]

Ya know what, if it’s gonna be cold, give us more snow. Cold and dry this time of year is brutal. Snow at least makes it a little more interesting. Plus the cleanup doesn’t take as long with the sun angle helping melt the snow very quickly this time of year.

[Newman]

Posted this down in the Mid-Atlantic thread, but the CSU machine learning forecast is still looking ugly for Monday. I do believe the greatest tornado threat will remain *mostly* south and east of the Mason-Dixon, but a damaging QLCS is still nothing to scoff at. Embedded spin-ups a real possibility too. Will need to watch how the system evolves over the next 2 days as there is still a non-zero chance this evolves more into a discrete supercell type event for SE PA. New Day 3 SPC comes out in 30 min

[Newman]

Latest Day 3 from SPC. 45% wind probs just south of the Mason Dixon

[Ralph Wiggum]

19 hours ago, simbasad2 said:

Surprised nobody is mentioning the potential severe weather activity on Day-4

Hey, some of us are too busy over analyzing the fantasy snowstorm on the long range gfs. Right where we want it:

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

Ya know what, if it’s gonna be cold, give us more snow. Cold and dry this time of year is brutal. Snow at least makes it a little more interesting. Plus the cleanup doesn’t take as long with the sun angle helping melt the snow very quickly this time of year.

The problem is that it won't be cold enough to snow. Average highs are in the mid 50s and average lows are in the mid 30s. We are probably aren't going to stray too far from these averages the next few weeks.

[JTA66]

First ice cream truck sighting of the season.

[Ralph Wiggum]

22 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The problem is that it won't be cold enough to snow. Average highs are in the mid 50s and average lows are in the mid 30s. We are probably aren't going to stray too far from these averages the next few weeks.

High of 37 coming  tuesday, high of 39 wednesday. It just snowed 2 days ago. Am I missing something?

Sustained cold isnt really a thing this tme of year but a day of 2 BN here and there works.

[The Iceman]

1 hour ago, Newman said:

Latest Day 3 from SPC. 45% wind probs just south of the Mason Dixon

I just looked at the 12z guidance and timing really couldn’t be better for our area but especially for Lancaster and Lehigh valley I think we see the wind probs expanded NE next update. One of the better looking march severe threats I can remember and yes totally agree discrete supercells are not out of the picture. Also I think some places will end as snow as well. Monday afternoon and evening should be exciting. Gear up the generators especially with the wet conditions of late.

 

edit: holy shit at the euro… it argues for a discrete threat ahead of the qlcs in the early afternoon. Ominous look.

[Birds~69]

3 hours ago, JTA66 said:

First ice cream truck sighting of the season.

Didn't see it but sure as hell heard the gingle pass by. They should have the same idea/truck but with new beers from/supporting local micro breweries.Imsgine it being 95F/HHH and just finishing mowing and low and behold the cold beer truck is headed down the street. My o my, one can only dream....

[Ralph Wiggum]

16 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Didn't see it but sure as hell heard the gingle pass by. They should have the same idea/truck but with new beers from/supporting local micro breweries.Imsgine it being 95F/HHH and just finishing mowing and low and behold the cold beer truck is headed down the street. My o my, one can only dream....

Love this!!!!

[JTA66]

34 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Didn't see it but sure as hell heard the gingle pass by. They should have the same idea/truck but with new beers from/supporting local micro breweries.Imsgine it being 95F/HHH and just finishing mowing and low and behold the cold beer truck is headed down the street. My o my, one can only dream....

I’ve been saying the same thing for years! It would be a cash cow. Imagine all the adults running out of the house like little kids chasing the truck down the street.

[Newman]

Latest Day 2 from the SPC. 45-60% hatched wind for most, greatest tornado risk is just to the west across south-central PA where a 10-15% hatched risk is outlooked. Given the extremely high shear but low cape environment, damaging QLCS winds will be favored but there will be line mergers and perhaps a few lone cells capable of a stronger tornado. The failure modes I'm seeing are

1. Given the potency of the upper-level trough, there may be "too many" showers and storms developing and competing with each other pre-frontal

2. Early day clouds and showers will limit destabilization

3. Strong southerly winds may or may not create a localized "minimum" in severe weather across SE PA where a narrow marine layer could advect off the Chesapeake Bay

Regardless, we haven't seen a severe weather event of this caliber in at least a few years. It will get very cold again behind the front, so make sure if you lose power you have a plan

[Violentweatherfan]

So SEPA can anticipate at least some wicked thunderstorms right?