2026-2027 Super El Nino

[GaWx]

 OISST relative in 3.4 rose a lot yesterday (~0.1C):

 

 What will tomorrow’s official weekly release show though? They’ve been lower than what these OISST graphs were suggesting. This graph suggests it will be +1.7C for the prior calendar week avg. However, they had it at only +1.4C last Monday despite this chart suggesting +1.6C. So, they’ve been low vs the graph. In reality, the graph suggests it warmed a little more than 0.1C since the prior week. So, we’ll see.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be really interesting see how the Aleutian low develops with the rare July displacement into Alaska for such a strong El Niño.

This is the first developing super El Niño with such a low July PNA since 1972. While the sample size is very small, that event featured one of the most unusual winter Aleutian low patterns for such a strong El Niño up to that time.

Significantly colder era back then and this El Niño is much more intense. 
 

July PNA during developing super El Niños 

2023.. +1.15

2015…+0.76

1997….+0.56

1982…+0.97

1972….-0.76

Yeah, you know what's going on. I'd give the % chance of something like that happening like 5-10% right now. 

[raindancewx]

The PNA is negative to barely positive in July in a lot of the big El Ninos on this data set.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/pna.data

2023: +0.65

2015: +0.29

1997: +0.10

1982: +0.49

1972:   -1.13

July was negative in 2018, 1963, 1965, 2004, etc along with 1972

Was also negative in Aug 1997.

 

[snowman19]

The OHC is all the way up to +2.8C. We have blown away 1997’s record of +2.5C

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1

I'm impressed at how much further west the subsurface warm pool extends vs 1997. This could mean two things:

1) There is more fuel for this Nino to go stronger - and perhaps stronger in Nino 3

2) The "Strong La Nina snap-back" for 27-28 may not be as probable as some may think. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Everyone was saying 1998-2025 SOI was such that it is probably biased positive now. This is about as respectable as a downward drop as you will see. Here's the last 2 days.. 90-day and 30-day are both below -20 now. 

26 Jul 2026	1011.41	1015.60	-31.64	-25.66	-20.20
25 Jul 2026	1011.59	1015.45	-29.61	-25.54	-20.06

 

This is turning into a top-5 -SOI event since the 1800s, so yeah it's probably not biased positive with AGW. 

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm impressed at how much further west the subsurface warm pool extends vs 1997. This could mean two things:
1) There is more fuel for this Nino to go stronger - and perhaps stronger in Nino 3
2) The "Strong La Nina snap-back" for 27-28 may not be as probable as some may think. 

We are breaking a bunch of 1997’s records. We are on the verge of easily surpassing 1997’s subsurface warmth. The OHC has broken 1997’s record, which was +2.5C, we are at +2.8C, this ongoing WWB is record-breaking, much stronger than the one that occurred around the same time in 1997, the associated DWKW is also stronger. This -SOI run is breaking 1997’s record. We are warmer in both region 3.4 and region 3 and we are virtually neck and neck in region 1+2:



WWB:




Region 3 is forecasted to go off the charts:

The 30C isotherm is further east than 1997 (east of the dateline) and still moving east: 

“2026 for the win!  Part of the present advantage is the ongoing westerly wind burst timed later than the corresponding one in 1997 (which was late May/early June). This year's summer wind event was longer and ultimately stronger. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline continues to support the extreme potential for this event.”

 

[LakePaste25]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can't stand that cop-out style....just make a forecast. Is there luck involved, sure....but there is luck in everything...it's called chaos. If the Super Bowl is close and it comes down to one play, do they stop the game and just hand out "equal chance" ribbons to very player?

I don’t think it’s a cop out. If it statistically argues so (which is absolutely does for the mid Atlantic) there’s no reason to pretend that it doesn’t. 

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Everyone was saying 1998-2025 SOI was such that it is probably biased positive now. This is about as respectable as a downward drop as you will see. Here's the last 2 days.. 90-day and 30-day are both below -20 now. 

26 Jul 2026	1011.41	1015.60	-31.64	-25.66	-20.20
25 Jul 2026	1011.59	1015.45	-29.61	-25.54	-20.06

 

You know... that timeframe is interesting and it's funny you mentioned it as I was looking through the H300 PDO index numbers again. In the monthly data, that was actually the last time it was appreciably positive. During 97-98. Greater than +1. And before that too. At times after that it has been above 0 to about 0.5 including during 15-16 but always fell negative again. It remains negative as of now, well as of June's number which was -2. A curious thing to add to this though is the MEI. Which appears to be tracking most similarly to 97-98. There's that year again and a record event of it's own time. Almost seems like that was some kind of turning point of sorts and now here we are just about 30 years later looking at some really intriguing metrics. 

 

H3 PDO: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/PDO_body.html

MEI:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

 

You know... that timeframe is interesting and it's funny you mentioned it as I was looking through the H300 PDO index numbers again. In the monthly data, that was actually the last time it was appreciably positive. During 97-98. Greater than +1. And before that too. At times after that it has been above 0 to about 0.5 including during 15-16 but always fell negative again. It remains negative as of now, well as of June's number which was -2. A curious thing to add to this though is the MEI. Which appears to be tracking most similarly to 97-98. There's that year again and a record event of it's own time. Almost seems like that was some kind of turning point of sorts and now here we are just about 30 years later looking at some really intriguing metrics. 

 

H3 PDO: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/PDO_body.html

MEI:

We have had a long term -PDO/La Nina pattern, call it a decadal pattern 1998-2025. It seems to have strengthened since 2016, and now in 2026 it's diverging from the S. Hemisphere/equator and the Northern Hemisphere. Up until now you could have said it was either, ENSO or PDO. The Southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell expanding during the time makes me think it was more of a decadal ENSO phase. But now with the N. Pacific significantly diverging from the SOI/ENSO SSTs,,, maybe it's something else related to the PDO. Or my personal theory is cold northern Arctic Summers could have a lot do with it. We also had 100-year low Solar 2001-2020. The max during that time was weakest since the early 1800s. 

[raindancewx]

Some of you are probably wondering how I ended up with my blend of 1963, 1982, 1997, 2004, 2015, 2018. If you look at Apr-Jun unweighted, its actually a very close match to 2026 for Apr-Jun, although running about 2F too cold in warm areas, in part because of how strong this event is, and how much warming has gone on since ~1995 the analog center point for time. You just have to make the north a bit colder, south warmer, and then the gradients are a bit more extreme.

 

 

[raindancewx]

I can pull composites like these pretty quickly again now that I have my weighted analog system back, with he full package of predictors (ENSO, AMO, Solar, Modoki, PDO, ENSO prior yr, and monsoon rain for high/ridge positioning over the deserts). I took out 1997 because it was further along, but it only dulls the warmth a bit and you still have the general look.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I don’t think it’s a cop out. If it statistically argues so (which is absolutely does for the mid Atlantic) there’s no reason to pretend that it doesn’t. 

You missed my point. I agree it favors the mid atl for above average snowfall, that isn't my point. The "equal chances" stance is crap. Make a call. I'm not directing this specifically at you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@raindancewxMakes perfect sense to me....1997 obviously for ENSO given intensity, but the rest are great polar analogs...only one I don't have is 2018, but that will probably be there when I do the extra tropical Pacific next month.

[snowman19]

A new CCSR/IRI update indicates
A clear bias toward a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during the fall of 2026.
The highest probabilities reach around 84% during September and October.
The multi-model average predicts a peak for the index of +1.5°C, with some individual scenarios higher

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, you know what's going on. I'd give the % chance of something like that happening like 5-10% right now. 

The current -PNA is mostly a reflection of how strong the ridge is north of Hawaii is. That’s the really strong 500 mb -PDO we are getting in July.

The SSTs are mostly a lagging indicator since the 500mb pattern drove the PDO decline last few months. There’s probably a background feedback between the SST and atmosphere which has kept the -PDO so negative during the 2020s.

This summer PDO drop has been a common theme during the 2020s with a gradual rise to less negative or neutral by the winter. So our new 2020s seasonal cycle.

We can’t really predict the PNA beyond the short term so too early to put out a precise winter PNA forecast. But just to say that the 2023-2024 super El Niño with a -PDO had a less positive winter PNA than 2015-2016 with a strong +PDO

DJF 2023-2024…….PNA…..+0.58…..PDO…..-1.34

DJF 2015-2016……..PNA……+1.42…..PDO…..+1.07

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The current -PNA is mostly a reflection of how strong the ridge is north of Hawaii is. That’s the really strong 500 mb -PDO we are getting in July.

The SSTs are mostly a lagging indicator since the 500mb drove the PDO decline since June. But there is probably a background feedback between the SST and atmosphere which has kept the -PDO so negative during the 2020s.

This summer PDO drop has been a common theme during the 2020s with a gradual rise to less negative or neutral by the winter. So our new 2020s seasonal cycle.

We can’t really predict the PNA beyond the short term so too early to put out a precise winter PNA forecast. But just to say that the 2023-2024 super El Niño with a -PDO had a less positive winter PNA than 2015-2016 with a strong +PDO

DJF 2023-2024…….PNA…..+0.58…..PDO…..-1.34

DJF 2015-2016……..PNA……+1.42…..PDO…..+1.07

 Joe Bastardi’s current primary analogs for this winter are 1957-8 and 1965-6. He showed on Saturday that the avg temperature of those 2 in DJF is close to what recent CFS means have had. But his basis of using those 2 is that they’re both 2 very strong El Niños with a -PDO. What the? Whereas I hope we get something like what the CFS has been showing, I can’t figure out why he’s counting them as -PDO analogs:

-1957-8 had +1 to +2.4 PDO every month from June through Feb!

-1965-6 PDO was neutral in July and then +0.7 to +1.4 Aug-Dec. Then it fell only to borderline -PDO in Jan/Feb (-0.3, -0.2).

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

[GaWx]

 The Arctic N of 80N since late May has been the coldest per the DMI graphs since 1958! Keep in mind that variances in summer are quite small and thus this is all it has taken to easily be the coldest. IF this were to continue through late August and especially Sept, it’s going to get my attention more as that’s generally when anomalies have started to be warm in most recent years after a near neutral summer:

[GaWx]

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

 OISST relative in 3.4 rose a lot yesterday (~0.1C):

 

 What will tomorrow’s official weekly release show though? They’ve been lower than what these OISST graphs were suggesting. This graph suggests it will be +1.7C for the prior calendar week avg. However, they had it at only +1.4C last Monday despite this chart suggesting +1.6C. So, they’ve been low vs the graph. In reality, the graph suggests it warmed a little more than 0.1C since the prior week. So, we’ll see.

What in the heck is going on with the recent NOAA weekly releases for Nino 3.4? The week centered on July 22nd was only barely below +1.75 per the cyclonicwx.com OISST graph!

 01JUL2026         2.7        1.5        1.2        0.5
 08JUL2026         2.6        1.6        1.3        0.5
 15JUL2026         2.8        1.6        1.4        0.4
 22JUL2026         3.0        1.8        1.4        0.3

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Joe Bastardi’s current primary analogs for this winter are 1957-8 and 1965-6. He showed on Saturday that the avg temperature of those 2 in DJF is close to what recent CFS means have had. But his basis of using those 2 is that they’re both 2 very strong El Niños with a -PDO. What the? Whereas I hope we get something like what the CFS has been showing, I can’t figure out why he’s counting them as -PDO analogs:

-1957-8 had +1 to +2.4 PDO every month from June through Feb!

-1965-6 PDO was neutral in July and then +0.7 to +1.4 Aug-Dec. Then it fell only to borderline -PDO in Jan/Feb (-0.3, -0.2).

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

Actually viewing the data that you're using is overrated.

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm impressed at how much further west the subsurface warm pool extends vs 1997. This could mean two things:

1) There is more fuel for this Nino to go stronger - and perhaps stronger in Nino 3

2) The "Strong La Nina snap-back" for 27-28 may not be as probable as some may think. 

Given the much larger WPAC pool than 1997-1998, this makes sense. Many decades of steady ocean warming since then.

So it also would not be a surprise if the stronger WPAC warm pool resulted in less ENSO cooling than 1998-1999 to 2000-2001.

We could even see this event linger longer into 2027 due to how much ocean heat will be accumulating in the ENSO regions. It will be an important case study on how the tropical Pacific responds once the +30C warm pool gets pushed so far east of the Dateline which has never happened in our modern climate.

It would be interesting to know why we couldn’t get WWBs this strong in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 to really tap the expanded WPAC warm pool until now? 

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Actually viewing the data that you're using is overrated.

Ray,

 Please explain why you think the NOAA monthly PDO data that I quoted is overrated.

 What do you think about JB’s choice of a cross between. 1957-8 and 1965-6 as analogs (warm Dec except NN SE, colder Jan with BN S 2/3 of US, even colder Feb (cold most of US), and chilly Mar) making overall NDJFM avg cold concentrated in S 1/2 of US and JFM avg cool to cold most of US)? They are similar to the CFS fwiw.

[George001]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Joe Bastardi’s current primary analogs for this winter are 1957-8 and 1965-6. He showed on Saturday that the avg temperature of those 2 in DJF is close to what recent CFS means have had. But his basis of using those 2 is that they’re both 2 very strong El Niños with a -PDO. What the? Whereas I hope we get something like what the CFS has been showing, I can’t figure out why he’s counting them as -PDO analogs:

-1957-8 had +1 to +2.4 PDO every month from June through Feb!

-1965-6 PDO was neutral in July and then +0.7 to +1.4 Aug-Dec. Then it fell only to borderline -PDO in Jan/Feb (-0.3, -0.2).

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

Joe Bastardi is a grifter, you did your research and know what you are talking about so you can see through his bullshit. He’s not dumb (his credentials and knowledge are legit), but his goal is to get clicks and $$$ for his business, not truth. It works, he’s a good businessman, not a good long range forecaster. Hyperbole and promises of big winters in populated areas (new england) get the clicks and money. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Ray,

 Please explain why you think the NOAA monthly PDO data that I quoted is overrated.

 What do you think about JB’s choice of a cross between. 1957-8 and 1965-6 as analogs (warm Dec except NN SE, colder Jan with BN S 2/3 of US, even colder Feb (cold most of US), and chilly Mar) making overall NDJFM avg cold concentrated in S 1/2 of US and JFM avg cool to cold most of US)? They are similar to the CFS fwiw.

I was referring to JB, not you.

[GaWx]

 The latest BoA continues to suggest a new record rate of one month’s warming of 3.4 for ANY month (back to 1950) with August ~1.1C warmer than July, similar to the CFS. Look at that steep slope!! So, now through August will need to really perform or else progged peaks would likely come down somewhat. Model consensus has had mid to late summer as the most rapid rate of warming for quite awhile. The record summer -SOI certainly gives it a fantastic level of support:

 

[michsnowfreak]

On 7/26/2026 at 12:01 PM, GaWx said:

 “Snowy” in ATL can be ~3”+ as the average SN/IP is ~2”. Thus snowy in ATL can easily be from just one storm. More often than not, “snowy” in any particular location in the SE US away from the mountains is mainly from just one major storm along with possibly one+ minor hits.

 Another thing about a place like ATL or even RDU vs Marquette: a much larger % of the wintry precip is sleet or ZR when averaged out over the decades. I roughly estimate 1” of sleet is equivalent to 2.5” of snow on average. So, for example, ATL got ~4” of sleet in 2/1979 and 1/1988. They had the water equivalent, impact, and staying power of ~10” of snow. In addition, ZR doesn’t even measure as S/IP as we know. 
 
 So, the 2” ATL avg tends to understate to an extent its avg wintry precip vs, say, a straight 2” avg snow.

 

Yeah thats a good point. Ive heard the average that 1" of sleet is about 3" of snow. Every location has its nuances. Up here, you get so many mood flakes that dont show in any aspect of the weather stats. In any given snow season, there will be approximately 35-45 days with a Trace of snow in addition to all the measurable snowfall. Its what happens in a Great Lakes climate. So "how many times did it snow last winter" is never a valid question here for determining winter severity. In the south, a disproportionate amount of wintry precip is ice vs snow, which is unfortunate for snow lovers because I imagine the mindset is "hey, its finally cold enough to snow, why is it raining?". 

[michsnowfreak]

21 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The Midwest Regional Climate Center snow maps for the years I picked. You can see generally the Northern Plains and Ozarks sort of get screwed for snow. Northwest does OK, especially if the PDO stays negative into Fall. Northeast does OK. Southeast & Southwest are generally furthest above means for snow. I can't get the maps to work for 2004-2005 and 1963-64.

This is my attempt at drawing the consolidated snow maps. I put in a few example cities. So Richmond (~50%) is further above average than Philadelphia (~20%) and Philadelphia is further above average than Boston, which is a hair below (5-10%). Detroit and Chicago are around 20% below average. Topeka is right on the edge of the just below average/just above average zone (since it is low elevation, and blue western areas will be highly elevation dependent in a warm pattern for snow). Reno was something like 40% above average, Albuquerque around 20%. I'm using 1961-2020 as snow baseline. Billings is 3,000+ feet above sea level and around 15% below average. Those higher areas in the orange areas won't do too poorly, its the lower spots that get hosed.

I may change my main analogs for temps, but I don't expect to change the snow maps. I'm pretty comfortable with this group for where moisture will be.

Those are neat snow maps. Any idea how far back they go? I tried populating 1972-73 and it wouldnt load.

[roardog]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

What in the heck is going on with the recent NOAA weekly releases for Nino 3.4? The week centered on July 22nd was only barely below +1.75 per the cyclonicwx.com OISST graph!

 01JUL2026         2.7        1.5        1.2        0.5
 08JUL2026         2.6        1.6        1.3        0.5
 15JUL2026         2.8        1.6        1.4        0.4
 22JUL2026         3.0        1.8        1.4        0.3

Is the data on Cyclonicwx wrong? The ONI for region 4 has been hovering around 1.0 or a little above but here it’s showing RONI at 0.3. That’s a pretty big difference between ONI and RONI. I’m not saying that isn’t accurate because I don’t know. I’m just pointing it out. 

[snowman19]

Very strong coupling with the Nino standing wave convection/forcing:

As anticipated, the EPAC has come alive

[snowman19]

 The latest BoA continues to suggest a new record rate of one month’s warming of 3.4 for ANY month (back to 1950) with August ~1.1C warmer than July, similar to the CFS. Look at that steep slope!! So, now through August will need to really perform or else progged peaks would likely come down somewhat. Model consensus has had mid to late summer as the most rapid rate of warming for quite awhile. The record summer -SOI certainly gives it a fantastic level of support: