2026-2027 Super El Nino

[csnavywx]

We're at the point where this event catches up to '97 and passes it handily.

[snowman19]

We're at the point where this event catches up to '97 and passes it handily.

We are about to leave 1997 in the dust.

The 30C isotherm continues to trek further east of the dateline, pushed by the ongoing WWBs. Absolutely believable that it gets all the way to 140W by November

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We are about to leave 1997 in the dust.

The 30C isotherm continues to trek further east of the dateline, pushed by the ongoing WWBs. Absolutely believable that it gets all the way to 140W by November

 

 

 

 

Agreed.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

5 day average 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2026071400&fh=264

That relaxation of the ridge and heat has been the pattern since May following these periods of record heat and ridging.

If the ridge returns again in early August, then we’ll know the pattern is continuing.

But if the trough can hold on, then it would look more like a traditional developing super El Niño mid-latitude summer pattern in the East.

It would be nice to get an extended break from these periods of record warmth and ridging. 

The shear across the Caribbean with this record breaking super El Niño is more like what they see in December.

 

[snowman19]

Agreed.

All one has to do is look at these current anomalies and sea level heights/thermocline and there should be no question that this is going to be an all-time historic Nino event

[GaWx]

 There’s a possibility of exceeding 1018 mb in Darwin on Thursday (7/16), which would be only the 2nd day on record back to 1991 per the SOI daily pressure records. That record high is 1018.35 mb. Even that could be challenged.

 This is courtesy of a 1040 S Australian polar high. Another strong polar high is progged to do similar next week in this typical El Niño pattern that brings Darwin pressure up.

[michsnowfreak]

On 7/13/2026 at 7:52 AM, roardog said:

I feel like once you get into super Nino status that stronger might even be better here just because there should have a tremendous amount of moisture streaming into the country. Some of that is bound to try to make its way up this way like it did in 2015-2016. I guess if we have a record setting Nino then it’s something we’ve never experienced so technically there isn’t even an analog. 

Thats all good points. I feel like the excess moisture is a huge thing. The assumption that El Nino always means dry has been failing in recent years, especially with stronger Ninos. Really thinking we get some good wet paste storms this year. 

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Getting very close in Nino 1+2 now to 1997 with 2026 leading in all other areas. 
 
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/
                …….Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
08JUL2026     25.5 3.4     28.3 2.3     29.4 2.0     30.0 1.2
08JUL2015      24.7 2.5     27.8 1.8       28.7 1.3      29.8 1.0
09JUL1997      25.6 3.5     27.7 1.7        28.6 1.3     29.3 0.5
 

Indeed. We are on the verge of easily surpassing 1997 in every aspect very soon….


 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Subsurface is actually falling behind 1997 right now (+9c vs +7c). There is however a Kelvin Wave hitting the central-subsurface, so maybe it will increase eastern anomalies in a few weeks. Timing of gravity waves is not always the same in different ENSO events. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 There’s a possibility of exceeding 1018 mb in Darwin on Thursday (7/16), which would be only the 2nd day on record back to 1991 per the SOI daily pressure records. That record high is 1018.35 mb. Even that could be challenged.

 This is courtesy of a 1040 S Australian polar high. Another strong polar high is progged to do similar next week in this typical El Niño pattern that brings Darwin pressure up.

SOI going wild right now.. up there in a top 7/8 event since the late 1800s per SOI now. 

14 Jul 2026	1011.36	1016.35	-36.56	-23.53	-17.62
13 Jul 2026	1010.44	1015.10	-34.53	-23.20	-17.20
12 Jul 2026	1009.89	1015.20	-38.53	-23.21	-16.92
11 Jul 2026	1011.77	1015.80	-30.66	-23.06	-16.66

 

Currently lowest 30-day SOI since 1997

[csnavywx]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Subsurface is actually falling behind 1997 right now (+9c vs +7c). There is however a Kelvin Wave hitting the central-subsurface, so maybe it will increase eastern anomalies in a few weeks. Timing of gravity waves is not always the same in different ENSO events. 

'97 loses some steam from here over the next month and as you point out, there's another large KW on the way, so would expect these two events to swap positions with respect to max anomaly temps.

[so_whats_happening]

On 7/12/2026 at 9:36 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

111 in Billings, MT is insane. They just had snow in Montana 2 weeks ago! Do you guys notice this see-saw happening more times that not, although France is just exceeding and exceeding their records, not wavering back and forth between warm and cold there. 

We have had this since about March around here going from 80-85 then accumulating snow the next then back to the low 80s. I would say that is more of a fall feel for this area but here nor there it has been very much back and forth. Setting some record cold lows and highs within the same month.

Only thing I have noticed that we are in an increasing el nino state is the lack of tropical activity and the slightest of increase in rainfall over the last 2 months around here.

This will ultimately be fun to see what happens with this next subsurface feature. Again that slight distorted look we see in the thermocline is an artifact of the -PDO state still holding. Losing its grip compared to 3 years ago during the last Nino event but still present for now.

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Indeed. We are on the verge of easily surpassing 1997 in every aspect very soon….


 

While these long range subsurface charts from the CFS can lose skill, it’s impressive that the El Niño is still going strong in Nino 1+2 by March. The model is trying to show this taking time to weaken due to how strong it gets. The developing cold pool to the west isn’t as strong as 1998 was.
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hey @Stormchaserchuck1, what is the calculation of your NAO index right now?

[snowman19]

We have broken the 1997 record for Peru’s (next to region 1+2) highest air temperate record



It doesn’t get more El Niño than this, clearly defined El Niño convective standing wave/forcing:



This is likely to be a record-breaking EPAC TC season
 

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We have broken the 1997 record for Peru’s (next to region 1+2) highest air temperate record



It doesn’t get more El Niño than this, clearly defined El Niño convective standing wave:



This is likely to be a record-breaking EPAC TC season
 

 

 

 

 

Yea, it's clearly BOSS in the tropics...just need to get that into the mid latitudes, which it ultimately will with any luck.

[LakePaste25]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it's clearly BOSS in the tropics...just need to get that into the mid latitudes, which it ultimately will with any luck.

It already is in South America. Chile is getting slammed in the short-medium range models. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LakePaste25 said:

It already is in South America. Chile is getting slammed in the short-medium range models. 

Yea, I highly doubt we see as much MC interference as 2023, and while I am not yet convinced that there will be less than 2015, I am certainly open to the idea.

[LakePaste25]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I highly doubt we see as much MC interference as 2023, and while I am not yet convinced that there will be less than 2015, I am certainly open to the idea.

Yeah I don’t think the Hadley cell will just park  at 120W all winter. Kind of like what Snowman is showing in the Hovmoller above, I can see it wobbling 30-50 degrees in the mean. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm beginning my work on the polar domain, as far as solar, QBO, Atlantic subsurface (with help from Chuck) and ENSO considerations....I should have a more definitive stance by next week.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah I don’t think the Hadley cell will just park  at 120W all winter. Kind of like what Snowman is showing in the Hovmoller above, I can see it wobbling 30-50 degrees in the mean. 

I could see the mean being more like 140W, but either is reasonable.

[Keith Central PA]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

While these long range subsurface charts from the CFS can lose skill, it’s impressive that the El Niño is still going strong in Nino 1+2 by March. The model is trying to show this taking time to weaken due to how strong it gets. The developing cold pool to the west isn’t as strong as 1998 was.
 

May was the month in 1998..it went from moderate nino to modeate nina in a month.

[GaWx]

On 7/13/2026 at 5:16 PM, GaWx said:

Don’t  the messenger:  I’d like to see, if possible, and if it doesn’t take forever to find out if this JFM really is the coldest ever forecasted going back to 2012. Is it worth my valuable time? Probably not. What do y’all think about this map, which is a mean of a whopping 10 days of runs of its ensemble as opposed to just one run?

Precip anoms from same run:

 

On 7/13/2026 at 9:44 PM, mitchnick said:

Knock yourself out! Lol

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/

 After researching this carefully, the following CFSv2 forecast map that JB posted for 2027 actually may not be the coldest population weighted CFSv2 JFM forecast overall for the U.S. on the site predicted in summer, which goes back to the progs for JFM of 2012:

 

  Regarding the following forecast, which was made in the summer of ‘13 for JFM of 2014, the U.S. overall may be colder than the above map on a population as opposed to geographically weighted basis because the most heavily populated NE to upper Midwest is significantly colder despite the warmer S:

 

 JB was specifically referring to pop. weighted this far out as he said: “ Population Weighted, CFSV2 with Coldest JFM in hits archive

I went back thru all CFSV2 forecasts since 2012 on its site.

This is the coldest JFM it has ever shown from this far out“

Now, regarding a JFM prog made at anytime of year, which JB wasn’t talking about, this one made in early Jan for 2013 appears to be the coldest of any I found on either a pop or geo wted basis:

 

 Interestingly, the aforementioned recent forecast for JFM 2027 is not that much colder than the following one also made in summer for JFM 2016 (which similarly followed a super Nino peak) as it has a fairly similar pattern (just not as cold):

 

 The above summer of ‘15 prog for JFM ‘16 ended up failing miserably for most of the country as this is what actually happened:

 This miserable failure, itself, doesn’t exactly bode well for those like me hoping the cold on the JB posted CFS for JFM ‘27 will verify well since we’re  again going into a super-Nino.

[snowman19]

I could see the mean being more like 140W, but either is reasonable.

Whether the forcing is at 140W or wherever, we won’t know for sure until November….one thing is for absolutely sure and guaranteed, this super El Niño is going to be the main driver this winter, for sure, by far and away, the elephant in the room

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Whether the forcing is at 140W or wherever, we won’t know for sure until November….one thing is for absolutely sure and guaranteed, this super El Niño is going to be the main driver this winter, for sure, by far and away, the elephant in the room

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well, the heat in the Pacific is going to be the main driver one way or another this winter for sure.....agree on that.

[mitchnick]

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Whether the forcing is at 140W or wherever, we won’t know for sure until November….one thing is for absolutely sure and guaranteed, this super El Niño is going to be the main driver this winter, for sure, by far and away, the elephant in the room

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I swear, every time I see you posting Jeff Berardelli, because of that cartoon pic, the same initials and similar name structure, I  think you're posting JB (Bastardi). Lol Am I  the only one?

[GaWx]

Further to my CFSv2 post above, here’s how the CFSv2 did in the E US with their mid-July forecasts for the subsequent JFM:

For ‘26 (Nina) too warm

 

For ‘25 (Nina): close NE; too warm SE

 

For ‘24 (Nino): too cold, especially NE

 

For ‘23 (Nina): much too cold, esp. NE

 

For ‘22 (Nina): overall a bit too warm

 

For ‘21 (Nina): a bit too cold

 

For ‘20 (warm neutral): much too cold (similar miss to ‘23)

 

For ‘19 (Nino): close NE but too cold SE

 

For ‘18 (Niña): close

 

For ‘17 (Niña): much too cold (similar miss to ‘20 and ‘23)

 

For ‘16 (Nino): close NE but too cold SE

 

For ‘15 (Nino): much too warm NE, too warm SE

For ‘14 (cold neutral): a bit too warm (good forecast but not cold enough)

For ‘13 (cold neutral): close

 

For ‘12 (Niña): much too cold (similar to ‘17, ‘20, ‘23)

 

 The all important tally for the 15 JFMs of ‘12-‘26 to give us idea of summer CFS bias:

1) NE
-Too cold 6 yrs/40% (including 4 much too cold): 24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘17, ‘12

-Too warm 4 yrs/27% (including one much too warm): ‘26, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14

-Close 5 yrs/33%: 25, ‘19, ‘18, ‘16, ‘13

 Overall averages a cold bias in the NE, especially since 4 much too cold and only one much too warm. OTOH, only 6 of 15 (40%) too cold…so not a strong cold bias averaged out where one can take a CFS fcast and assume it will be too cold since only 40% too cold…thus, that wouldn’t be wise
 

2) SE

-Too cold 8 years/53% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘19, ‘17, ‘16, ‘12

-Too warm 5 years/33% (but none much too warm): ‘26, ‘25, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14

-Close 2 years/13%: ‘18 and ‘13

 Overall, averages a cold bias in the SE, especially since 4 much too cold and none much too warm. OTOH, not a strong cold bias averaged out since only slightly more than 50% too cold; so wouldn’t be wise at all to assume CFS will verify as too cold

@mitchnick