2026-2027 Super El Nino

[TriPol]

8 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

How do we know that a 5.0 would act differently than a 2.5?.. more flooding in California?..All Super el nino's have done is give warm weather through most of the country for the winter and more rains in the southwest. Somehow that doesn't seem like a big deal, or maybe I'm missing something. This has really been hyped by social media.

Before posting that here, maybe you should have asked Chat GPT this question. Catastrophic doesn't even come close to the amount of damage 5.0C could cause. 

[Tallis Rockwell]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Before posting that here, maybe you should have asked Chat GPT this question. Catastrophic doesn't even come close to the amount of damage 5.0C could cause. 

F em clankers

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

What are the chances this goes to 5 C? not an expert on this...

 I just researched it. CMCC is an Italian climate model. I can’t find verification data, but +5.3C monthly peak isn’t going to happen on a RONI basis and almost certainly not even per ONI.
 
 If there had been other models near that, I might have given it a little more consideration. But with it 1.4C warmer than the 2nd warmest on that list and with that 2nd warmest, itself, already forecasting >1C warmer than the current record warmest, I find it hard to consider it even remotely possible.

[GaWx]

On 7/10/2026 at 11:18 AM, GaWx said:

 
Thanks, Adam. So, Long Paddock after ~a week finally came back to updating its daily SOIs. This is what I earlier posted about this:

 In doing so, it also retroactively changed some dailies prior to July 3rd. What’s most interesting is that those changes changed what had been 2 small positives to negatives: June 18th/19th changed from +4/+1 to -4/-4. Based on the original June 18th release of +4, a 37 day -SOI streak had apparently ended June 18th. However, with these changes, it didn’t and thus we’re in a very long -SOI streak that’s now at a whopping 62 days and is still going strong!

 How does this compare to the longest back to 1991?

-100 days in 1998

-72 days in 1997

-66 days in 2015

-65 days in 2023

-62 days and counting 2026

Looking at model SLP forecasts, I see a near certainty that the current -SOI streak will make it to 67+ days. That would then make it the 3rd longest -SOI streak on record (back to 1991). Will it make it past 72 days? That’s too far out to predict with confidence right now. But that appears to have a decent chance as of now.

[roardog]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

Looking at model SLP forecasts, I see a near certainty that the current -SOI streak will make it to 67+ days. That would then make it the 3rd longest -SOI streak on record (back to 1991). Will it make it past 72 days? That’s too far out to predict with confidence right now. But that appears to have a decent chance as of now.

There are a lot of metrics that are very impressive with this event. It’s also equally impressive how non Nino like the pattern over North America has been along with how strongly negative the PDO continues to be. A lot of interesting stuff happening right now for people like us to watch and discuss. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

There are a lot of metrics that are very impressive with this event. It’s also equally impressive how non Nino like the pattern over North America has been along with how strongly negative the PDO continues to be. A lot of interesting stuff happening right now for people like us to watch and discuss. 

This July is the most extreme difference between a developing super El Niño and the midlatitude 500 mb and temperature pattern across the CONUS.

The tropics are clearly in El Niño mode as we can see from the forcing and -SOI with very strong shear over the Caribbean.

Notice how the strong -PDO ridge north of Hawaii leads to the classic July -PDO SST pattern. This is an impressive July -PDO response across the CONUS with the record heat and ridging from the Plains to the East Coast. 

 

Strong July -PDO composites 

 

July 1-10, 2026 500 mb pattern 

 

[snowman19]

 

 
 
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

 

 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

 
“40 knot westerly wind anomalies potentially emerging right over the warmest water east of the dateline. The synoptic elements are too small scale to be accurately predicted here. What it's indicating is enhanced risk of seasonally extreme equatorial westerlies through the middle and into the end of July.”




SOI: 30 day: -23, 90 day: -16



EPAC TC season has started:



 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The fact that we still have a very healthy -PDO in place tells me this El Niño has some work to do with respect to vanquishing the competing MC influence, regardless of how man posts we can find on the internet suggesting otherwise. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hey @snowman19, maybe you find find some tweets in Swahili that will convince us this July has shaped up like this. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

For the record, this is worse for winter than a classic super El Niño look...I have no interest in MC influence for the coming winter, but I have even less interest in cherry picking data.

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hey [mention=13098]snowman19[/mention], maybe you find find some tweets in Swahili that will convince us this July has shaped up like this. 

 

Is that supposed to be a racist comment? Seasoned mets who don’t speak English from other countries are stupid and aren’t qualified to comment in their own language? Their posts are useless because they aren’t from here?

Horrible, insensitive/bigoted post from you. This El Niño is extremely well coupled:

“We are witnessing in the field today the process I described at the beginning of May: as the ITCZ’s active core settles over the Pacific, the convective envelope strengthened in phases 6–7 of the MJO is fueling successive westerly wind burst pulses in the Western–Central Pacific. This injection of westerly momentum weakens the trade winds, carries equatorial Kelvin waves eastward, and deepens the thermocline in the east, thereby accelerating surface warming. Thus, the strong temperature excess that begins in the coastal/eastern Pacific spreads into the basin along Niño 3–3.4; as the Walker circulation breaks down, the Bjerknes feedback kicks in. In short, the atmosphere is no longer merely responding to the warm ocean—it is amplifying it: the coastal-origin, east-central weighted pattern is advancing step by step toward the Super El Niño threshold. Additionally, since El Niño modulates +tropical forcings during this period, it carries a distinct signature in mid-latitude response composites.”

https://x.com/atmoslabwx/status/2075960267096100992?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[GaWx]

Folks, this thread has had great met. discussion recently. Please don’t let it get out of hand. Because this is my favorite met. thread at this BB, I’d appreciate it if the El Niño banter thread were used instead for certain posts, which is easy to do by quoting a post from here and responding to it at this link:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Is that supposed to be a racist comment? Seasoned mets who don’t speak English from other countries are stupid and aren’t qualified to comment in their own language? Their posts are useless because they aren’t from here?

Horrible, insensitive/bigoted post from you. This El Niño is extremely well coupled:

“We are witnessing in the field today the process I described at the beginning of May: as the ITCZ’s active core settles over the Pacific, the convective envelope strengthened in phases 6–7 of the MJO is fueling successive westerly wind burst pulses in the Western–Central Pacific. This injection of westerly momentum weakens the trade winds, carries equatorial Kelvin waves eastward, and deepens the thermocline in the east, thereby accelerating surface warming. Thus, the strong temperature excess that begins in the coastal/eastern Pacific spreads into the basin along Niño 3–3.4; as the Walker circulation breaks down, the Bjerknes feedback kicks in. In short, the atmosphere is no longer merely responding to the warm ocean—it is amplifying it: the coastal-origin, east-central weighted pattern is advancing step by step toward the Super El Niño threshold. Additionally, since El Niño modulates +tropical forcings during this period, it carries a distinct signature in mid-latitude response composites.”

https://x.com/atmoslabwx/status/2075960267096100992?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

What? Why don't you formulate a cohesive counter to the point rather than deflecting with silly attempts to inject race into the issue and copy and past a slew of tweets. 

I'm a licensed social worker with 4 African children and an African wife, who was mocking your proclivity to scan every crevice of the internet for tweets to quote that fit your bizarre ENSO agenda. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Folks, this thread has had great met. discussion recently. Please don’t let it get out of hand. Because this is my favorite met. thread at this BB, I’d appreciate it if the El Niño banter thread were used instead for certain posts, which is easy to do by quoting a post from here and responding to it at this link:

 

Larry, I don't see the issue with reenforcing the fact that this July has been more representative of the -PDO data set and it has the developing super El Niño.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Shocking that only one of us in this thread has a history of being 5 PPD...can't possible think of why.

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What? Why don't you formulate a cohesive counter to the point rather than deflecting with silly attempts to inject race into the issue and copy and past a slew of tweets. 

I'm a licensed social worker with 4 African children and an African wife, who was mocking your proclivity to scan every crevice of the internet for tweets to quote that fit your bizarre ENSO agenda. 

Yea, David Gold, Paul Roundy, Eric Webb, all have bizarre ENSO agendas. As do the foreign mets who I’ve quoted. They all agree that this is a well coupled canonical El Niño event. I’m done with this asinine pissing contest with you 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, David Gold, Paul Roundy, Eric Webb, all have bizarre ENSO agendas. As do the foreign mets who I’ve quoted. They all agree that this is a well coupled canonical El Niño event. I’m done with this asinine pissing contest with you 

As do I......I also have hope that one day you will succeed in wrapping your mind around the fact that this is not mutually exclusive with the fact that there remains significant MC influence throughout the hemisphere. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Ray,  I have no issue, whatsoever, in anyone emphasizing the significance of the restrengthening -PDO, especially since I very recently posted about the up to date WCS PDO plunge. But it got out of hand from there and I’m trying to get it back on track. That’s why I’m responding to your post here in banter.

I injected some sarcasm by mocking him a bit....guilty; but there was no need for the absurd racism accusation. Anyone with any familiarity with this thread knew what I was doing there. He has a tendency to respond to resistance in this truly vile manner that usually includes very derogatory insults, and in this case, a pathetic attempt to inject race as a means to vilify me rather than simply address the point. Primitive deflection tactic.

[BuffaloWeather]

97/98 Nino year was the only one I can find with ZERO lake effect events after Jan. 1st for Erie/Ontario. There were only 4 events total, all before the new year. 

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=1997-1998&event=A

[LakePaste25]

I’m towards the “it’ll be a canonically coupled event” camp. And for the record I disagreed with takes during 24-25 and 25-26 that we’ll see predominate RNA pattern (we didn’t). So i’m not just saying it because I want it to be warm. 

[roardog]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As do I......I also have hope that one day you will succeed in wrapping your mind around the fact that this is not mutually exclusive with the fact that there remains significant MC influence throughout the hemisphere. 

Also the strong -PDO which we currently have that probably also ties into the MC influence. Globally there are big differences compared to 1997 at the moment and like you said earlier, it probably is NOT for the better if you’re a winter lover. 

[LakePaste25]

My opinion is that it’s such a strong looking event that you leave less room for things such as the PDO to influence the pattern, especially when it can potentially flip.  It’s still early in its development. Previous winters the ENSO state was fairly weak so there were more opportunities for competing influences to destructively or constructively interfere. 

[roardog]

14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

97/98 Nino year was the only one I can find with ZERO lake effect events after Jan. 1st for Erie/Ontario. There were only 4 events total, all before the new year. 

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=1997-1998&event=A

That’s the funny thing about 1997-1998. I recall there being more cold early in the winter than later in the winter which is kind of opposite what you think of with El Niño. Of course November was quite cold so there was probably quite a bit of lake effect that month. 
 One memory for me that stands out from that winter was being on the SW edge of the Arctic airmass that eventually went on to produce the catastrophic Canadian ice storm. We started out with freezing rain but changed to rain before it got too bad.

[roardog]

4 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

My opinion is that it’s such a strong looking event that you leave less room for things such as the PDO to influence the pattern, especially when it can potentially flip.  It’s still early in its development. Previous winters the ENSO state was fairly weak so there were more opportunities for competing influences to destructively or constructively interfere. 

You would think so but even 2015-2016 seemed to have some outside influence and that was a beast of an El Niño with a strong +PDO. We can’t even sniff a +PDO this year so far and it seems the North American pattern is making sure we know that. 

[jaxjagman]

7 minutes ago, roardog said:

That’s the funny thing about 1997-1998. I recall there being more cold early in the winter than later in the winter which is kind of opposite what you think of with El Niño. Of course November was quite cold so there was probably quite a bit of lake effect that month. 
 One memory for that stands out from that winter was being on the SW edge of the Arctic airmass that eventually went on to produce the catastrophic Canadian ice storm. We started out with freezing rain but changed to rain before it got too bad.

Actually if you go back to 57-58 it was quite cold after Dec,while NOV like you mentioned was BN,Dec was more severe,but J/F was really cold,if that happens again who know,plus March of 1958 had the blizzard in the east

[LakePaste25]

5 minutes ago, roardog said:

You would think so but even 2015-2016 seemed to have some outside influence and that was a beast of an El Niño with a strong +PDO. We can’t even sniff a +PDO this year so far and it seems the North American pattern is making sure we know that. 

15-16 was an oddball. Unusually strong MC forcing in december and in Jan/Feb the E Pac convection was unusually far north (failed to collapse near the equator as it’s supposed to do during winter), which actually enhanced Baja ridging as it was the descending branch of the Hadley Cell. Both of these factors helped contribute to the record warm December and the Mid Atlantic blizzard. 

[LakePaste25]

OLR is exactly what you’d expect in July for an E based Nino. Note the convection going north as you go east…that’s consistent with climatology this time of year due to the Humboldt current which impacts Nino 1+2. 

 

[roardog]

6 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

15-16 was an oddball. Unusually strong MC forcing in december and in Jan/Feb the E Pac convection was unusually far north (failed to collapse near the equator as it’s supposed to do during winter), which actually enhanced Baja ridging as it was the descending branch of the Hadley Cell. Both of these factors helped contribute to the record warm December and the Mid Atlantic blizzard. 

You could say that this year is its own oddball so far. A record El Niño for this time of year with a still strongly -PDO with a -PDO type of North American pattern. It just makes me leery that we’re suddenly going to see a flip to 1997 across North America. No doubt much of the rest of the globe is and will continue to look very Ninoish.