2026-2027 Super El Nino

[George001]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Like I said, I  agree seasonal models are generally inaccurate. We know this. But using a model prog from 3 years ago as a basis has no relevance especially considering upgrades have been made and without statistical proof that the current version has particular biases in Niños. And since there have been no Niños since 2023, that ain't happening. 

The issue I’m having here is Im not seeing how they would have fixed the whole mean smoothing extreme anomalies thing (something that is inherently higher risk in an extreme tail ENSO event) since 2023. Maybe im wrong and am underestimating the upgrades, but im at a point where i need to see it to believe it. 

On the other hand, elevated risk does not equal guaranteed, there is a world where Bluewave is right from a probability standpoint but the winter ends up only being slightly AN like the European guidance mean has right now because that extremely warm month that often happens in super ninos just doesn’t happen this year. You are correct that we don’t have statistical proof of the current versions biases in ninos yet. Thats a valid point, so the best we can do at this point is make an educated guess. I still think it’s worth trying. 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Come on man. Google is your friend. Lol

You have to realize that the actual pattern isn’t always what you want it to be. 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You have to realize that the actual pattern isn’t always what you want it to be. 

Where'd that come from? Lol

Just be happy with the 1-2C+ the Euro is showing for the NE and hope for warmer next time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Despite the delusions and lies being peddled by the usual cast of weenies on twitter, the EURO seasonal is NOT showing a cold December and January in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. It’s actually showing a canonical super El Niño pattern with a big Aleutian Low displaced way east to the west coast; ++EPO/EPO floodgates wide open with nothing but Pacific maritime air flooding Canada and the CONUS. No arctic connection at all. This is not cold in Canada or the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, not even close. Before someone says it, no, it’s not a torch either. Again, not a torch, but it’s not cold. Deep denial and delusions, fake news and false info from the weenie crowd on twitter, which is no surprise. Year after year it’s the same old show from the same clowns

I get what you are saying...there is some hyperbole going on, but I also think that you should be a bit more measured with respect to your own tone, as well....while the position of that GOA low is more redolent of the stronger composite than the weak data set, it's also not very representative of the east-based composite, either. I would expect that the season would cool down beyond December extrapolating out.

Weaker (left) vs Stronger (right)

Modoki (Left), Basin-Wide (Center) vs East-Based (Right)

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Then why use older temp forecasts to argue for warmer conditions? 

Be honest. If the Euro came in this month, or does in future months, that the NE will be a torch this winter, I suspect you, or one of your surrogates, will be all over it. 

He's saying that ridging is underestimated in this modern era, so where ever ridging is denoted, it's highly likely that seasonal guidance will be too cold and low with heights in that area...regardless of where it is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Imo this reads more as an experienced long range guy using pattern recognition to detect model biases than a warm bias. Euro has the classic super Nino warm north + big GOA low + cooler south + wet with raging STJ signal. It makes sense that the mean may be smoothing things too much in an extreme tail event like this, hence the warmer risks Bluewave is raising concerns about. If there is MC forcing as well we could see a very warm month (like December in 2015) that pulls the anomalies from slightly AN to extremely AN. I like the cold and snow as much as anyone, but Bluewave brings up a good point here and it’s worth taking seriously. 

 

Yes, this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Like I said, I  agree seasonal models are generally inaccurate. We know this. But using a model prog from 3 years ago as a basis has no relevance especially considering upgrades have been made and without statistical proof that the current version has particular biases in Niños. And since there have been no Niños since 2023, that ain't happening. 

What does ENSO state have to do with it? We know guidance has yet to catch up to the intensity of modern ridges because we just witnessed it last winter out west. ENSO state plays a role in dictating where the under-modeled ridging will set up, but it doesn't alter the fact that it is consistently under modeled.  

The whole "show me update data every season" is a cop out IMHO...the sky is blue, and I don't need data...either look upwards and check Google.

[LakePaste25]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get what you are saying...there is some hyperbole going on, but I also think that you should be a bit more measured with respect to your own tone, as well....while the position of that GOA low is more redolent of the stronger composite than the weak data set, it's also not very representative of the east-based composite, either. I would expect that the season would cool down beyond December extrapolating out.

Weaker (left) vs Stronger (right)

Modoki (Left), Basin-Wide (Center) vs East-Based (Right)

 

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

While it won’t be a wall to wall shutout and there will be cold shots & brief opportunities, I would expect a pac jet dominated winter.

Yup. Avoiding absolutisms (such as “this will be a wall-to-wall shutout, record low snow, etc.”) is key to seasonal forecasting. There will be pacific jet extensions and it will be unfavorable for winter far, far more often than not. Probably as high as 70/30 or 80/20 unfavorable.  But there should be some windows of opportunity, even if brief. Of course I am more of a weather weenie than just a snow weenie, so even seeing coastals and severe outbreaks in the South will keep my interest going, plus tracking those brief opportunists to see if a KU event comes to fruition will also be fun. 

[LakePaste25]

Just to expand on this, I think 66-70% unfavorable/30-34% favorable is probably the absolute ceiling for this event in terms of best-case scenarios, which equates to 1 good winter month out of the 3.

50/50 or unfavorable 30%, 70% favorable you’re getting into Modoki territory and there’s simply no support for that kind of event. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

 

Yup. Avoiding absolutisms (such as “this will be a wall-to-wall shutout, record low snow, etc.”) is key to seasonal forecasting. There will be pacific jet extensions and it will be unfavorable for winter far, far more often than not. Probably as high as 70/30 or 80/20 unfavorable.  But there should be some windows of opportunity, even if brief. Of course I am more of a weather weenie than just a snow weenie, so even seeing coastals and severe outbreaks in the South will keep my interest going, plus tracking those brief opportunists to see if a KU event comes to fruition will also be fun. 

Yea, I am not...at least not at this point in life. My focus is pretty concentrated around SNE snowfall and US cane threats. If the highlight of this winter is severe threats down south, my post count will be considerably lower than usual.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

Just to expand on this, I think 66-70% unfavorable/30-34% favorable is probably the absolute ceiling for this event in terms of best-case scenarios, which equates to 1 good winter month out of the 3.

50/50 or unfavorable 30%, 70% favorable you’re getting into Modoki territory and there’s simply no support for that kind of event. 

Yea, one very good month is my thinking...maybe another averageish month if things break right.

[snowman19]

https://x.com/hombredeltiempo/status/2074089660733661350?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[bluewave]

These Euro monthly SST forecasts show how a large portion of the ENSO regions are currently on track to set new all-time actual SSTs and anomalies. 
 

 

 

[MarcmmKU]

All I know is that we are way past due for a cold and snowy march. Every march for the NE coastal plain since 2019 has been basically a total shutout for any type of wintry weather. Total march snow since 2019 for central park= 0.5". 

[mitchnick]

Updated July NMME holds June forecast in the east except for slightly warmer in NNE and cooler in the SE (Congrats Larry!) for December-February. Precip AN in the east again with an increased shield and rate over June forecast. 

Monthly temp link starting December:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=T2ma_nmme&runtime=2026070800&fh=5

 

 

[LakePaste25]

Anyone have June 2026 omega? Would like to compare it to the previous super events but NCAR was eliminated 

 

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, mitchnick said:

If your point is that seasonal models are generally inaccurate, I agree. But they do offer guidance and leave it up to pros and weenies to put whatever weight they choose. But what we're seeing this year so far is a "rough" consensus similar to this month's Euro. At this point, that consensus is encouraging unless one is hoping for a national/worldwide torch.

During the past winter which was cold in the Great Lakes/Northeast and record warm in the southwest/west, we heard an unprecedented amount of discussion about the West & CONUS as a whole rather than the actual cold where most here live. It will be interesting to see if this continues this winter since average to cold anomalies are forecast in much of the south/central outside the north/northeast. 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

You have to realize that the actual pattern isn’t always what you want it to be. 

ohhh the irony.

[FPizz]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

From my recollection, you comment on seasonal models as much as everyone else. If you want to say commenting doesn't have anthing to do with belief in them, then ok. But I don't think anyonevon this Board believes seasonal modeling is gospel, especially at 5+ months.

You misunderstand the surrogate intent and obviously deflect. 

 

 

Seasonal models 5 months out dont believe.  All other guidance 5 months out post as if they happened already. This whole thread is from models that depict weeks and months in the future.  

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Just to expand on this, I think 66-70% unfavorable/30-34% favorable is probably the absolute ceiling for this event in terms of best-case scenarios, which equates to 1 good winter month out of the 3.

50/50 or unfavorable 30%, 70% favorable you’re getting into Modoki territory and there’s simply no support for that kind of event. 

I get that this is super generalized, but "favorable" is vastly different depending on latitude. Do you mean deep winter? or merely seeing snow?

The Great Lakes/New England absolutely get snow in unfavorable patterns. I give it about 80% chance that you or I see snow on more than 30% of days this winter. But if were talking more deep winter ala last year, thats when a 30/70 seems more realistic.

[GaWx]

The MEI for May/June was +1.5. How does this compare to past years?

1997 +2.3

1987 +2.1

2015 +1.9

2026 +1.5

 

 Also, the MEI warming from AM to MJ was 1.2, which is 2nd fastest to 1997’s 1.6.

 The MEI warming from MA to MJ was 2.1, which ties with 1997 for the fastest.

@snowman19

@40/70 Benchmark

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

ohhh the irony.

When you understand what the models strengths and weaknesses are in the long range,  then you can start to make sense of what they are trying to say. So we start with what we know about the models and work from that starting point.

A model strength of the ECMWF is more accurate ENSO SST forecasts once past the spring predictability barrier. The ECMWF ENSO SST forecasts with previous super events were actually pretty good from July 2023 and 2015. 

So chances are increasing with each model update that this will be the strongest El Niño event on record using a metric like traditional ONI  anomalies and absolute SSTs. The current SSTs are already ahead of all the previous super El Niños to this point.

The long range temperature forecasts for both the 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 super El Niño events were significantly too cold. The 500 mb forecasts provided some skill but the location and the magnitude of the ridges were more expansive with weaker troughs. This has been a common theme regardless of ENSO over the last decade.

The areas under the ridges had temperatures which greatly exceeded forecasts. Plus there were one month intervals in the 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 super El Niño events when the Indio-Pacific warm pool was strong enough to drive the forcing outside the typical El Niño regions.

This will be the first time with two super El Niño events only three years apart. It will be both a big sensible weather event around the world and a climate event. Since each super El Niño event since 1997-1998 resulted in a big jump in global temperatures to a higher baseline. 
 

June set new all-time SST records for developing El Niños in all Nino regions except 1+2. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

All-Time June SST records in bold

YR   MON  NINO1+2  ANOM   NINO3    ANOM   NINO4    ANOM   NINO3.4  ANOM

2026   6   25.94    2.82   28.33    1.71   30.19    1.22   29.17    1.44

2023   6   25.63    2.50   27.88    1.26   29.55    0.58   28.57    0.84

2015   6   25.32    2.19   28.07    1.45   29.88    0.92   28.90    1.18

1997   6   26.12    3.00   28.13    1.51   29.23    0.26   28.82    1.09

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It would be nice to get a N. Pacific trough at all, for all the models showing this for the Winter

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Maybe a little bit of an extreme bias

If we continue to see no Hadley Cell contraction that would really be something!

[GaWx]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Just remember that with our last super El Niño which was much weaker than this one, the seasonal forecasts including the ECWMF were significantly too cool for what verified from the long range forecasts. 

Forecast from August 2023

Verification

 

 

 

10 hours ago, mitchnick said:

And don't forget that the last 2 winters the Euro seasonal was too warm in the NE. And since it is impossible to have statistical data that supports the notion that the current Euro seasonal is inherently biased too cool for Niños in its current upgraded version (and I don't see that being possible since there have been upgrades since the 2023 season), I honestly don't see the relevance of prior year forecasts. All we can take away, imho, is that the Euro seasonal has been inaccurate with its winter temp forecasts in the NE 3 out of the last 3 years, twice being too warm and once being too cool.

Edit: And let's not forget this month's forecast looks very similar to other seasonal modeling.

 

The NDJ Euro fcast made July 2023 was actually pretty close in most of the U.S. as per this post I made (see link below) with a good portion within 1F. Only the N tier was several degrees too cold:

 

 In addition as I said in the same post, the Euro July NDJ of both ‘25 and ‘24 were significantly too warm in the E US. 

-‘23: I could call it either close overall or net slightly too cold due to the N tier

 -‘22 was a bit too cold in most of the E US, but that’s the only one like that since 2017! 

-‘21 was slightly too warm in the E US

-‘20 and ‘19 were pretty close in the E US

-‘18 was a bit too warm NE US and close in the MidAtlantic/SE

-’17 was too warm in the E US

 So for E US in their July NDJ forecasts, the tally is 5 too warm (‘25, ‘24, ‘21, ‘18, ‘17) and only 2 too cold even if I count ‘23 (‘23 and ‘22) as too cold. That in no way suggests the likelihood that the ‘26 NDJ just issued will verify too cold (sample size of 9 is decent).

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Hadley Cell contraction in July 1972, 1982, 1997. Not so much in 2015, 2023. We are still following closer analogs most closely

[LakePaste25]

The problem with using 91-2020 climo for those years is everything is mostly blue and it’s tough to pick out key features. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^I think it was you that made the good point that the S. Hemisphere Winter has high correlation, and a trough is usually dominant in El Nino's. We haven't seen that so far this year. 

An El Nino this strong should still show something vs recent climo imo. 

[LakePaste25]

@snowman19

 

[LakePaste25]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^I think it was you that made the good point that the S. Hemisphere Winter has high correlation, and a trough is usually dominant in El Nino's. We haven't seen that so far this year. 

An El Nino this strong should still show something vs recent climo imo. 

EPS has this really getting going in the extended: