2026-2027 Super El Nino

[snowman19]

This TC/MJO progression is going to initiate a massive WWB with a constructively interfering ERW at the end of this month into July. Another (new) DWKW guaranteed to follow. And we have a developing +IOD. I’m more convinced than ever that this event will easily be stronger than any El Niño we’ve seen since 1950 in both RONI and traditional ONI
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LakePaste25]

36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I predict that R 3.4 and R 1+2 will be up to +1.1/+2.4 in tomorrow’s weekly update. These would be up from the +0.9/+2.1 of last Monday’s report.

CRW is already at +1.2

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Ever had a La Nina this east based?

About 2 years ago, I did the composites on the moderate and strong la ninas. 1975-76 was the closest to being east based of the strong la ninas. 1949-50 is probably the best example of an east based la nina, with 1970-71 and 1984-85 possibly being east based.

[mitchnick]

The Jamstec. My new favorite seasonal model...so far.

https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

[LakePaste25]

48 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

About 2 years ago, I did the composites on the moderate and strong la ninas. 1975-76 was the closest to being east based of the strong la ninas. 1949-50 is probably the best example of an east based la nina, with 1970-71 and 1984-85 possibly being east based.

I consider 2021-2022 to be an east-based La Niña. 

 

[LakePaste25]

I know @bluewave brings this up a lot, but I will forever be fascinated by the clean phase 8 pass through in January 2022. With all of the competing Nina forcing going on, I don’t know how we pulled that off especially during an actual Nina. 

[LakePaste25]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Big shift to a negative tendency last few days as we see a more Niña-like pattern again for a time near the end of the month. 

 

Not that unusual in super Nino events. I wouldn’t expect 24/7 +AAM and it’ll probably bounce back quickly. 

 

 

[snowman19]

Not that unusual in super Nino events. I wouldn’t expect 24/7 +AAM and it’ll probably bounce back quickly. 
 
 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just letting you guys know, this was a >+1 PDO. The new thought in the weather community is that global warming is skewing PDO negative, etc, the warm pool near Japan isn't going away. While SSTAs are warmer, the PDO is a 50/50 index, and the big warmth along the west coast of North America was responsible for strong +PDO in 15-16. 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

The Jamstec. My new favorite seasonal model...so far.

https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

Looks 2009-10ish. Interesting both jamstec and cansips are far from a warm winter.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

How did the JMA initialize the current Nino (I know it has a west or central-based configuration in the Winter)?

[snowman19]

Leave it to the usual cold and snow obsessed weenies on here and on twitter (i.e. Mark Margavage) to be wishcasting that 2009-10 is an analog for this winter with a raging super El Niño. Twilight zone. I’m literally in awe that people are actually suggesting that this is going to be a very cold winter. Talk about delusional and in deep denial
 

This winter is going to be absolutely comical once the weenie meltdowns start Lmfaooooo 

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Looks 2009-10ish. Interesting both jamstec and cansips are far from a warm winter.

Yep. So far, there are no seasonal forecasts that are undeniable furnace forecasts in the east, save maybe for NNE. But NNE can still get lots of snow with AN+ temps.

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Leave it to the usual cold and snow obsessed weenies on here and on twitter (i.e. Mark Margavage) to be wishcasting that 2009-10 is an analog for this winter with a raging super El Niño. Twilight zone. I’m literally in awe that people are actually suggesting that this is going to be a very cold winter. Talk about delusional and in deep denial
 

This winter is going to be absolutely comical once the weenie meltdowns start Lmfaooooo 

You’re really bold predicting that a Super El Niño in 2026 will be warmer than normal. I’m almost in shock, it takes a lot of guts to forecast something like that.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Leave it to the usual cold and snow obsessed weenies on here and on twitter (i.e. Mark Margavage) to be wishcasting that 2009-10 is an analog for this winter with a raging super El Niño. Twilight zone. I’m literally in awe that people are actually suggesting that this is going to be a very cold winter.
 

This winter is going to be absolutely comical once the weenie meltdowns start Lmfaooooo 

The fact that you would put in writing the last sentence is what you live for says it all about you. Just sayin'.

And to think you denied it before last winter when I accused you of just that.

[LakePaste25]

What are the top analogs for this event? Let me guess: 09-10, 14-15, 04-05, 02-03, 76-77, and 77-78

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, LakePaste25 said:

What are the top analogs for this event? Let me guess: 09-10, 14-15, 04-05, 02-03, 76-77, and 77-78

I would say 72-73 and 23-24, although we risk the AO going more negative than those analogs. 15-16 would probably be my number 3

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

What are the top analogs for this event? Let me guess: 09-10, 14-15, 04-05, 02-03, 76-77, and 77-78

You almost forgot 57-58 and 65-66 lol Every time there’s an El Niño, no mater what, the weenie’s fantasy analogs are: 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 04-05, 09-10 and 14-15!!! As predictable as the rising sun!

[Santa Claus]

snowman is the site’s best poster

[michsnowfreak]

39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Leave it to the usual cold and snow obsessed weenies on here and on twitter (i.e. Mark Margavage) to be wishcasting that 2009-10 is an analog for this winter with a raging super El Niño. Twilight zone. I’m literally in awe that people are actually suggesting that this is going to be a very cold winter. Talk about delusional and in deep denial
 

This winter is going to be absolutely comical once the weenie meltdowns start Lmfaooooo 

Lmao. This coming from the person who had to scour the internet and post tweets in Spanish and French last winter to desperately find something showing it wouldnt be cold in the east.

Why would i wish cast 2009-10? I live in Michigan, not the Mid-Atlantic. It was an average winter here. Not bad, but sandwiched by 3 excellent winters it was unmemorable here. I just said the map mitchnick posted looked like that.

Oh and who suggested cold? You can embed 8 tweets in one post so you fit your daily post limit, but no one else can share something without it meaning they suggest its what happens? Ive actually said multiple times i expect a milder than avg winter here. Again. Michigan. I dont need what you consider below avg or avg temps to get snow.

Youre right about one thing though. Your meltdowns/tantrums will be absolutely comical if winter is not a record furnace or if the east gets a noreaster. Like heat miser accusing mother of liking snow miser best.

[michsnowfreak]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The fact that you would put in writing the last sentence is what you live for says it all about you. Just sayin'.

And to think you denied it before last winter when I accused you of just that.

There really cant possibly be anyone who's game is as clear as his. 

[michsnowfreak]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You almost forgot 57-58 and 65-66 lol Every time there’s an El Niño, no mater what, the weenie’s fantasy analogs are: 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 04-05, 09-10 and 14-15!!! As predictable as the rising sun!

Enso state is irrelevant to what your yearly analogs are. Whatever is warmest and least snowy on the east coast. I dont even live there and I know that.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Enso state is irrelevant to what your yearly analogs are. Whatever is warmest and least snowy on the east coast. I dont even live there and I know that.

You’re a true moron lol

[michsnowfreak]

24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I would say 72-73 and 23-24, although we risk the AO going more negative than those analogs. 15-16 would probably be my number 3

Plenty of snowstorms in the lakes in 72-73 & 15-16. 23-24 was the one month winter. Nearly winters entire load blown in January. 

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You’re a true moron lol

Exactly what I think of you. I typically don't name call though, something you do all the time to people in here.

[donsutherland1]

IMO, the big issue right now is the disagreement between the JAMSTEC (much cooler ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly relative to the Region 3.4 anomaly) and other guidance e.g., ECMWF seasonal (similar or warmer Region 1+2 anomaly relative to the Region 3.4 anomaly). We're in June. What is fairly certain is that a strong/super ENSO event is likely. In addition, the Region 1+2 anomaly has been running higher than the Region 3.4 anomaly into early June. Given the forecast strength of the ENSO, strong or persistent blocking would be helpful if one is looking to maximize wintry prospects. Whether this will be more like 1877-78, 1972-73, 1982-83, or 1997-98 remains to be seen, especially this far out. 

[rclab]

34 minutes ago, Santa Claus said:

snowman is the site’s best poster

That will change, Santa, if you ever parole Will. As always …..

[raindancewx]

The best way to validate what will happen with this event is to find opposite conditions :

Solar Max or Min (rather than mid-cycle)

Strong east based La Nina in Summer that is colder (relatively) than Nino 4

Opposite IOD/AMO for Summer.

Roll that year or blend of years forward and flip it. That should match the analogs. Haven't done that yet.