2026-2027 Super El Nino

[snowman19]

An extreme +PMM has developed:
 

 

@40/70 Benchmark As per research, +PMM supports east-based/East Pacific Niños. So that would support your idea of 1982-83 possibly being an analog

Research: “A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.”

Link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other%20climate%20modes%20further%20complicate,and%20NPO%2C%20on%20ENSO%20evolution.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

An extreme +PMM has developed:
 

 

@40/70 Benchmark As per research, +PMM supports east-based/East Pacific Niños. So that would your idea of 1982-83 possibly being an analog

Research: “A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.”

Link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other%20climate%20modes%20further%20complicate,and%20NPO%2C%20on%20ENSO%20evolution.

 

Would make for an easy forecast in terms of temps.

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Would make for an easy forecast in terms of temps.

Looks like it’s going to be an easy ENSO forecast as well….High-end strong (at the very least)/super. Given everything that we’ve seen up to this point, WWBs, TC’s, subsurface, +PMM, MJO, OHC, etc. and the models projecting a strong +IOD event to develop in the next several months, it’s going to be able to very easily sustain itself and start a Bjerknes feedback loop

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like it’s going to be an easy ENSO forecast as well….High-end strong (at the very least)/super. Given everything that we’ve seen up to this point, WWBs, TC’s, subsurface, +PMM, MJO, OHC, etc. and the models projecting a strong +IOD event to develop in the next several months, it’s going to be able to very easily sustain itself and start a Bjerknes feedback loop

I start following ENSO in the blog in about a month, once I do the wrap up on the prior season and we clear the spring prediction barrier. Should be pretty clear by then.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, jconsor said:

Nice points.  I agree - the lean toward La Ninas has acted as at least a slight brake on the global temp rise over the past three decades.

Global temp anomalies past 10 years or so have increased more rapidly in the extratropics than the tropics.  See this post from Dr. Joseph Fournier: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/joseph-fournier-7077087_following-the-15-year-great-hiatus-2000-activity-7449541780481654784-8jWQ?

The attached graph is from the same post and is generated using satellite temperature estimates.

 

Perhaps the rapid warming which began before the typical El Niño lag in the spring of 2023 is part of a larger change to more frequent strong to very strong El Niños. It’s possible that this is part of a shift in what some researchers have called the PCC. This warming occurred with the early Nino 1.2 rise in SSTs in the early spring of 2023. 

The cold tongue that was prominent in the EPAC during recent decades has been replaced by much warmer SSTs even during recent La Ninas. This line of research is still very new so it will probably take more observations to develop this theory more fully.

But it would be a significant occurrence for the global temperatures and the weather patterns if this new climate state could produce 2.0+ ONI El Niños separated by only 3 years apart. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-52731-6?utm_campaign=related_content&utm_source=HEALTH&utm_medium=communities

The eastern tropical Pacific has defied the global warming trend. There has been a debate about whether this observed trend is forced or natural (i.e., the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation; IPO) and this study shows that there are two patterns, one that oscillates along with the IPO, and one that is emerging since the mid-1950s, herein called the Pacific Climate Change (PCC) pattern. Here we show these have distinctive and distinguishable atmosphere-ocean signatures. While the IPO features a meridionally broad wedge-shaped SST pattern, the PCC pattern is marked by a narrow equatorial cooling band. These different SST patterns are related to distinct wind-driven ocean dynamical processes. We further show that the recent trends during the satellite era are a combination of IPO and PCC. Our findings set a path to distinguish climate change signals from internal variability through the underlying dynamics of each.

Much recent work focused on whether equatorial Pacific cooling over past decades is driven by anthropogenic effects or arises from internally-generated climate variability, like the IPO. A definitive anthropogenic link to the recent trends would allow us to reliably predict a cooler tropical Pacific. As the tropical Pacific is known to be a climatic pacemaker, for (at least) the near-future this would mitigate global warming via ocean heat uptake and low-level cloud feedbacks. Instead, if the cyclic IPO dominates the recent cooling, we may expect a strong warming when it reverses. In support of the first possibility, we have identified an emerging climate change signal in the tropical Pacific across different observational datasets and we call it the PCC. The PCC has distinctive ocean-atmosphere dynamics that differ from those associated with the IPO. We further demonstrate that the recent trends during the satellite era, which have been the focus of significant attention, result from a combination of IPO and PCC. The emerging PCC SST trend pattern features a narrow band of cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warming elsewhere. This SST change is linked to thermocline shoaling/SSH decreases in the central-to-eastern Pacific and dipole-like changes in zonal surface wind stress. In contrast, the recurrent IPO-driven SST trend pattern is characterized by a meridionally broader cooling in the eastern Pacific, zonal dipole-like thermocline/SSH changes and an overall strengthening of tropical Pacific zonal wind stress. We have shown that these distinct ocean circulation changes are a response to different wind stress patterns. These oceanic responses account for surface cooling in the eastern Pacific, with the thermocline shoaling playing a dominant role in the PCC cooling and enhanced zonal advective cooling mainly driving the IPO-related cooling.

While basic geophysical fluid dynamics proved sufficient to attribute the observed oceanic changes to surface wind stress, we have not addressed the origins of the wind stress patterns associated with the PCC and the IPO. New research is needed to elucidate the wind changes, but our leading hypothesis is as follows. In response to GHG forcings^39,40temperature change in the upper troposphere are stronger than at the surface (Fig. S4), increasing atmospheric static stability. Consequently, the initial SST and surface wind response to rising GHGs might not be amplified as efficiently via Bjerknes feedback as is that for the internal modes on interannual to decadal timescales. Given the differences in thermocline and ocean current patterns associated with the PCC and the IPO, the coupled feedbacks related to ocean dynamics are also expected to differ, potentially contributing to distinct climate pattern formations for decadal variability and climate change. Additionally, climate variations outside of the tropical Pacific may influence the tropical Pacific trade winds^{26,27,41–44}. Further, it has been argued that pronounced decadal-to-multidecadal SST variability in the Atlantic Ocean is also dominated by the response to the same external forcing that the tropical Pacific encounters⁴⁵. Perhaps the co-occurrence of these long-term trends in different regions is not simply a direct response to rising GHGs but is influenced by inter-basin interactions. More work is needed to disentangle causal relationships among the long-term changes in different basins^46,47.

Throughout this paper we have taken for granted the widespread assumption that the IPO is an internal mode of the climate system. However, while we worked to distinguish between the recurrent IPO-related decadal variability and the emerging PCC signal, we are open to the possibility that these two may have become coupled together by anthropogenic forcing. They have much in common: shoaling of the thermocline in the east, enhanced upwelling somewhere in the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific and an enhanced zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. It seems reasonable to postulate that if the response to radiative forcing is the emerging PCC pattern seen here, then it could initiate coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that favor a negative IPO state that also has an enhanced SST gradient²⁴. This might explain why the most recent IPO swing has been extreme and robust (Fig. S1b). If so, this suggests that in nature forcing is projecting onto natural modes of variability, while it is not clear whether climate models can reproduce this behavior. A new perspective on how internal variability interacts with the climate change signal will be needed in future studies.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Perhaps the rapid warming which began before the typical El Niño lag in the spring of 2023 is part of a larger change to more frequent strong to very strong El Niños. It’s possible that this is part of a shift in what some researchers have called the PCC. This warming occurred with the early Nino 1.2 rise in SSTs in the early spring of 2023. 

The cold tongue that was prominent in the EPAC during recent decades has been replaced by much warmer SSTs even during recent La Ninas. This line of research is still very new so it will probably take more observations to develop this theory more fully.

But it would be a significant occurrence for the global temperatures and the weather patterns if this new climate state could produce 2.0+ ONI El Niños separated by only 3 years apart. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-52731-6?utm_campaign=related_content&utm_source=HEALTH&utm_medium=communities

The eastern tropical Pacific has defied the global warming trend. There has been a debate about whether this observed trend is forced or natural (i.e., the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation; IPO) and this study shows that there are two patterns, one that oscillates along with the IPO, and one that is emerging since the mid-1950s, herein called the Pacific Climate Change (PCC) pattern. Here we show these have distinctive and distinguishable atmosphere-ocean signatures. While the IPO features a meridionally broad wedge-shaped SST pattern, the PCC pattern is marked by a narrow equatorial cooling band. These different SST patterns are related to distinct wind-driven ocean dynamical processes. We further show that the recent trends during the satellite era are a combination of IPO and PCC. Our findings set a path to distinguish climate change signals from internal variability through the underlying dynamics of each.

Much recent work focused on whether equatorial Pacific cooling over past decades is driven by anthropogenic effects or arises from internally-generated climate variability, like the IPO. A definitive anthropogenic link to the recent trends would allow us to reliably predict a cooler tropical Pacific. As the tropical Pacific is known to be a climatic pacemaker, for (at least) the near-future this would mitigate global warming via ocean heat uptake and low-level cloud feedbacks. Instead, if the cyclic IPO dominates the recent cooling, we may expect a strong warming when it reverses. In support of the first possibility, we have identified an emerging climate change signal in the tropical Pacific across different observational datasets and we call it the PCC. The PCC has distinctive ocean-atmosphere dynamics that differ from those associated with the IPO. We further demonstrate that the recent trends during the satellite era, which have been the focus of significant attention, result from a combination of IPO and PCC. The emerging PCC SST trend pattern features a narrow band of cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warming elsewhere. This SST change is linked to thermocline shoaling/SSH decreases in the central-to-eastern Pacific and dipole-like changes in zonal surface wind stress. In contrast, the recurrent IPO-driven SST trend pattern is characterized by a meridionally broader cooling in the eastern Pacific, zonal dipole-like thermocline/SSH changes and an overall strengthening of tropical Pacific zonal wind stress. We have shown that these distinct ocean circulation changes are a response to different wind stress patterns. These oceanic responses account for surface cooling in the eastern Pacific, with the thermocline shoaling playing a dominant role in the PCC cooling and enhanced zonal advective cooling mainly driving the IPO-related cooling.

While basic geophysical fluid dynamics proved sufficient to attribute the observed oceanic changes to surface wind stress, we have not addressed the origins of the wind stress patterns associated with the PCC and the IPO. New research is needed to elucidate the wind changes, but our leading hypothesis is as follows. In response to GHG forcings^39,40temperature change in the upper troposphere are stronger than at the surface (Fig. S4), increasing atmospheric static stability. Consequently, the initial SST and surface wind response to rising GHGs might not be amplified as efficiently via Bjerknes feedback as is that for the internal modes on interannual to decadal timescales. Given the differences in thermocline and ocean current patterns associated with the PCC and the IPO, the coupled feedbacks related to ocean dynamics are also expected to differ, potentially contributing to distinct climate pattern formations for decadal variability and climate change. Additionally, climate variations outside of the tropical Pacific may influence the tropical Pacific trade winds^{26,27,41–44}. Further, it has been argued that pronounced decadal-to-multidecadal SST variability in the Atlantic Ocean is also dominated by the response to the same external forcing that the tropical Pacific encounters⁴⁵. Perhaps the co-occurrence of these long-term trends in different regions is not simply a direct response to rising GHGs but is influenced by inter-basin interactions. More work is needed to disentangle causal relationships among the long-term changes in different basins^46,47.

Throughout this paper we have taken for granted the widespread assumption that the IPO is an internal mode of the climate system. However, while we worked to distinguish between the recurrent IPO-related decadal variability and the emerging PCC signal, we are open to the possibility that these two may have become coupled together by anthropogenic forcing. They have much in common: shoaling of the thermocline in the east, enhanced upwelling somewhere in the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific and an enhanced zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. It seems reasonable to postulate that if the response to radiative forcing is the emerging PCC pattern seen here, then it could initiate coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that favor a negative IPO state that also has an enhanced SST gradient²⁴. This might explain why the most recent IPO swing has been extreme and robust (Fig. S1b). If so, this suggests that in nature forcing is projecting onto natural modes of variability, while it is not clear whether climate models can reproduce this behavior. A new perspective on how internal variability interacts with the climate change signal will be needed in future studies.

 

That would be brutal for eastern winter enthusiasts...would mean warmer and less snowfall overall, but perhaps more large events.
 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That would be brutal for eastern winter enthusiasts...would mean warmer and less snowfall overall, but perhaps more large events.
 

Yeah, we have been in an all or nothing snowfall pattern for 30 years now around NYC Metro. Nearly all seasons have been under 18” or over 30” with not many in the mid range.

So it’s a bit like a power hitter that strikes out quite a bit between homers. The background warming loads the dice for more strikeouts over time. But the record SST warmth out near the Gulf Stream results in some very long homeruns like we saw back in late February when the STJ activates with good blocking.

The ultimate question each season is how many duds will we have to endure before another gem of a season like 2025-2026? 

[snowman19]

I start following ENSO in the blog in about a month, once I do the wrap up on the prior season and we clear the spring prediction barrier. Should be pretty clear by then.

Yea. Should be real interesting to see what happens once this massive DWKW surfaces in the eastern PAC next month

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we have been in an all or nothing snowfall pattern for 30 years now around NYC Metro. Nearly all seasons have been under 18” or over 30” with not many in the mid range.

So it’s a bit like a power hitter that strikes out quite a bit between homers. The background warming loads the dice for more strikeouts over time. But the record SST warmth out near the Gulf Stream results in some very long homeruns like we saw back in late February when the STJ activates with good blocking.

The ultimate question each season is how many duds will we have to endure before another gem of a season like 2025-2026? 

Great...."now batting for East Coast Winter Enthusiasts....Dave....Kingman".

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

 Nino 3.4 SSTa levels have finally started rising during the last 2 days, a 0.2C increase. Often there’s a delayed response to strong -SOI levels as they usually don’t produce SST rises immediately (reminder: these are straight rather than relative but the point is the rise):

[GaWx]

It’s the 15th and still no March QBO has been released. What in the wide, wide world of sports is going on? It never has taken more than a few days into the new month to release it.

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

It’s the 15th and still no March QBO has been released. What in the wide, wide world of sports is going on? It never has taken more than a few days into the new month to release it.
 

 

@GaWx This is all I’ve seen so far:

 

 

 

 

And on a side note, this WWB is about to blow 1997 away…..

Paul Roundy: ”I'm really just highlighting that over the next couple of weeks, this signal will explode beyond anything we presently see in these indicators, because the wind stress accrued to the Pacific over the last several days is 50% more intense, in terms of wind stress at the ocean surface, than the comparable event in 1997.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

 The EWs have cooled considerably for Apr 20-26 in the NE vs 5 days ago:

5 days ago: mild NE 

 

Today’s: cool NE

[raindancewx]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have a very low tolerance for people who can't disagree without hurling insults......talk about a tell-tale sign of feelings of inadequacy. Ball-busting sarcasm is one thing, but there is simply no place for calling anyone an idiot, or referring to their postulation as "idiotic". 

You are an idiot. The fact that it offends you just means you believe it. Presumably if I called you an pedophile you wouldn't be offended because you're not a pedophile. You spend these threads trashing ideas hiding behind idiotic premises of "bull busting" so no one can call your behavior. Its an excuse to criticize what you don't like and then when someone dares criticize you you hiss and moan like a little baby and run to the mods. You dish and refuse to take.

You never actually learn anything. Here are all the Super that don't "self destruct" which has been the entire premise of your theory this entire thread out of the left side of your mouth, while on the right side you hem and haw about how it won't be a super event anyway. Literally half of the ENSOs at/over +2.0C haven't self-destructed, so yes it is an idiotic idea that could be disprove with five seconds of thinking, which you don't do. Anything that has a 50/50 tendency is not a tendency.

1957-58 became 1958-59 after hitting +2.0C. 1965-66 became 1966-67, 1991-92 became 1992-93 - none of those are La Ninas. 1997-98, 1982-83, 1972-73, 2015-2016 arguably became La Nina but even those are kind of bullshit La Nina since 1983-84 and 2016-17 were extremely warm by South America and below the surface. So the entire premise...is at best 50/50 which is again...stupid as a baseline for forecasting.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

You are an idiot. The fact that it offends you just means you believe it. Presumably if I called you an pedophile you wouldn't be offended because you're not a pedophile. You spend these threads trashing ideas hiding behind idiotic premises of "bull busting" so no one can call your behavior. Its an excuse to criticize what you don't like and then when someone dares criticize you you hiss and moan like a little baby and run to the mods. You dish and refuse to take.

You never actually learn anything. Here are all the Super that don't "self destruct" which has been the entire premise of your theory this entire thread out of the left side of your mouth, while on the right side you hem and haw about how it won't be a super event anyway. Literally half of the ENSOs at/over +2.0C haven't self-destructed, so yes it is an idiotic idea that could be disprove with five seconds of thinking, which you don't do. Anything that has a 50/50 tendency is not a tendency.

1957-58 became 1958-59 after hitting +2.0C. 1965-66 became 1966-67, 1991-92 became 1992-93 - none of those are La Ninas. 1997-98, 1982-83, 1972-73, 2015-2016 arguably became La Nina but even those are kind of bullshit La Nina since 1983-84 and 2016-17 were extremely warm by South America and below the surface. So the entire premise...is at best 50/50 which is again...stupid as a baseline for forecasting.

I'm not offended. I'm proud of my work over the last decade plus...learned a ton. I'm just tired of your loathsome, vile persona acting as though you're superior to everyone and always spewing venom.

When in the hell did I run to the mods? I know as a byproduct of your incredibly meager existence you repeatedly made baseless claims of me plagiarizing your work....I called that out, but I don't recall ever getting mods involved. That accusation is every bit as accurate is your idiotic claim about the "smiley" snowfall pattern leading to another shitty east coast winter. Of course, you never acknowledged that. 

Okay, cool...you found a couple of exceptions ....of course, within this context the sample size is no longer an issue, and those examples can be used to completely debunk my assertion because it's convenient. "The sample size" crap is so fraudulent when you aren't consistent with it. 

Like I said, put your money where your keyboard is and take the bet, if I'm such an idiot. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't "use it to forecast". It's just something I have noticed about the strongest of events. I love how 1983 and 2016 are qualified as BS when in fact they were officially designated as La Niña....that is BS. 1966-1967 sure as hell seems cool-neutral to me........1957 and 1991, sure....I'll grant that. Must be a sample size issue

I don't think I used any offensive language in my response to Chuck.....if he feels as though I did, by all means, let me know. At least to me, employing sarcasm is different than using incendiary terms like "idiot". And yes, as a father of four young children and a licensed independent social worker/therapist, I would be immensely offended if I were called a pedophile, despite the fact I have never harmed any child. Frankly. I find your analogy utterly disgraceful, but it doesn't surprise me coming from you.

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The EWs have cooled considerably for Apr 20-26 in the NE vs 5 days ago:

5 days ago: mild NE 

 

Today’s: cool NE

Yeah, the atmosphere seems to be following the April 2023 developing El Niño script. Both April 2023 and 2026 have featured early record 90°+ warmth in the Northeast. Then a reversal to cooler and strong blocking to close out the month. 
 

 

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the atmosphere seems to be following the April 2023 developing El Niño script. Both April 2023 and 2026 have featured early record 90°+ warmth in the Northeast. Then a reversal to cooler and strong blocking to close out the month. 
 

 

I could see an evolution like 2023-2024, but hopefully we would have a more conducive western Pacific this go around to the extent that we would at least have a fighting chance to score a decent period or two.

[snowman19]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see an evolution like 2023-2024, but hopefully we would have a more conducive western Pacific this go around to the extent that we would at least have a fighting chance to score a decent period or two.

I think this one (El Niño) ends up stronger than 2023-24. That said, there are some very notable differences:

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think this one(El Niño) ends up stronger than 2023-24. That said, there are some very notable differences:

 

 

 

 

Yea, I can't even begin to say at this point. Contrary to what some are implying.....I haven't "forecast" anything yet. I have said numerous times that I don't even begin to delve in until after the spring barrier. While I have opined on several occasions throughout the thread that I doubt that a super El Nino will materialize, that is simply an early guess based on superficial observations. If June comes around and the data strongly suggests that we are going over 2.0, then my initial ENSO blogs will reflect that. I don't know why on earth anyone would struggle to distinguish casual discourse on an internet forum from an actual forecast. If it can be found and linked on my blog, then it's a forecast...if you are quoting a guess from an internet thread in March or April, then that isn't a forecast. That said, at the end of the day, the only forecast that is graded is what I post in the seasonal write up released in early November....data changes throughout the year, which is not a novel concept because seasonal forecasting is immensely complex, fluid and multifaceted. 

I often respond to dissenting viewpoints with sarcasm...yes, as I opt to inject humor into any semblance of conflict in an effort to mitigate tension. This is different from name calling in my mind. However, if it turns out that I am wrong, as was the case concerning the El Nino of 2023-2024, I think that both yourself, as well as @bluewavewould attest to the fact that I wholeheartedly capitulated and offered congratulations. I then authored a long blog post in an effort to illustrate where I exactly I went stray as part of a concerted effort to avail of the opportunity to learn from my mistake.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/05/winter-2023-2024-outlook-largely-failure.html

Everyone makes errors, but an "idiot" refuses to own them, and then ultimately acquiesce to an alternative view point in order to gain a greater breadth of perspective. I think I have aptly demonstrated a willingness to do so by way of my online contributions to this forum.

[FPizz]

23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great...."now batting for East Coast Winter Enthusiasts....Dave....Kingman".

5 out of the last 10 have been mid-range here (between 18-30) just 30 miles SE of NYC.  I'd say that is more Ted Williams. 

[LakePaste25]

CANSIPs shows lingering nina-like convection in the maritime continent, while the CFS shows a classic nino response that slowly propagates eastward into winter.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, FPizz said:

5 out of the last 10 have been mid-range here (between 18-30) just 30 miles SE of NYC.  I'd say that is more Ted Williams. 

Eh....maybe more like replacement level...say Darren Bragg

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/darren-bragg/83/stats/batting

[roardog]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the atmosphere seems to be following the April 2023 developing El Niño script. Both April 2023 and 2026 have featured early record 90°+ warmth in the Northeast. Then a reversal to cooler and strong blocking to close out the month. 
 

 

It’s not just 2023 though. Didn’t Nino years like 1976(or was it 1977) and 2002 do the same? I know 2002 had April heat and a very cool May. Obviously those years didn’t end up being strong Nino. I think it’s more of just a “Nino thing” regardless of eventual strength.

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

It’s the 15th and still no March QBO has been released. What in the wide, wide world of sports is going on? It never has taken more than a few days into the new month to release it.

 

 

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1. March ‘26 QBO: I just emailed the PSL

2. More on the 3.4 warming: these are straight rather than relative

+0.531 for latest OISST, a rise from +0.15 just 4 days ago and implies a RONI having risen back to just above 0.0. Thus despite this rise, I still see almost no way April will average up at +0.6 for RONI, which is what BoM is forecasting: 

 

Latest CDAS, which has a cold bias: +0.25 vs ~0 just 2 days ago
 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

1. March ‘26 QBO: I just emailed the PSL

I got a quick email reply, but it contains bad news regarding getting QBO updates: 

“Hi

The QBO we have is produced using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis which has ended production. We are trying to determine how we will compute this time series.

See https://psl.noaa.gov/news/2026/r1datanotice.html

Cathy S.

Your PSL Data Team”