Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 29 Author Share Posted March 29 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree concerning the pattern of stagnating patterns....I've noticed that, as well. Obviously if the data continues to support it, that's one thing, but at this early juncture I reman skeptical of an uber El Niño in such rapid succession with 2015-2016 and 2023-2024. If this winter is a mild, it's going to have to be due to the warm ENSO overwhelming because I just can not envision reverting to the cold west/warm east configuration of the 2020s with he tropical Pacific moving the direction that it is. The Winter US Temp pattern is like this coming El Nino has been building for 2 years.. At +3std's 2 cold Winters in the NE/Warm SW and Rockies precede an El Nino temp pattern year 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The Winter US Temp pattern is like this coming El Nino has been building for 2 years.. At +3std's 2 cold Winters in the NE/Warm SW and Rockies precede an El Nino temp pattern year 3 Right, I'm not debating El Niño.....what is in question is intensity and persistence of -PDO. I think the largest concern for winter enthusiasts is a 1991-1992 type of outcome....whereas the PDO recovers to near neutral and it's still awful as the PV is very strong constricted, but I think Pinatub may have played a role there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 29 Author Share Posted March 29 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right, I'm not debating El Niño.....what is in question is intensity and persistence of -PDO. I think the largest concern for winter enthusiasts is a 1991-1992 type of outcome....whereas the PDO recovers to near neutral and it's still awful as the PV is very strong constricted, but I think Pinatub may have played a role there. Sometimes there are anomalies.. 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96 were cold Winters and the volcano should have made 91-92 lean colder.. a west-based Stronger El Nino. Sometimes it just doesn't go according to probability. It was also during +PDO general. I think the N. pacific subsurface is pretty important, so even if the short term PDO wanes/waxes the thermocline holds a longer term state.. bluewave has shown those N. pacific subsurface anomalies are record breaking warm right now, so I think -PDO tendency is probably favored until we see some consistency the other way there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Impressive activity ITT so early with already page 12 while still in March! How does this compare to when prior ENSO titled annual threads reached page 12? All of these started in Feb: 2025-6: well into April 2024-5: May 2023-4: April 2022-3: can’t find 2021-2: September So, 2026-7 is the most active of these so early thanks in part to the anticipated amazingly strong WWB, which better happen this time or else… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Sometimes there are anomalies.. 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96 were cold Winters and the volcano should have made 91-92 lean colder.. a west-based Stronger El Nino. Sometimes it just doesn't go according to probability. It was also during +PDO general. I think the N. pacific subsurface is pretty important, so even if the short term PDO wanes/waxes the thermocline holds a longer term state.. bluewave has shown those N. pacific subsurface anomalies are record breaking warm right now, so I think -PDO tendency is probably favored until we see some consistency the other way there. I think there are other factors that made 92-93 through 95-96 colder.....volanic impacts vary greatly depending on location. Yea, IDK....I find it hard to believe the N Pacific is going to maintain -PDO for a third consecutive El Niño and revert back to cold west/warm east configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 29 Author Share Posted March 29 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think there are other factors that made 92-93 through 95-96 colder.....volanic impacts vary greatly depending on location. Yea, IDK....I find it hard to believe the N Pacific is going to maintain -PDO for a third consecutive El Niño and revert back to cold west/warm east configuration. The SW heat ridge/drought started in 1995, and 1998 is when the -PDO began.. that SW pattern is amped max right now. I personally think we are still in -PDO general and the Southwest pattern also goes with +AMO. Solar Max may have changed things a bit though. I've looked at what 2 cold NE Winter's in a row means for year 3.. it's neutral, 50/50. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 29 Author Share Posted March 29 Very positive +NAO this March 33 of the last 46 March's have been +NAO (78%) It has been an anchor month for the decadal state. Jan, Feb, Dec have all been positive in the last 46 years too. Europe's skew of snowless Winters, and especially Germany, has been a little altered by the decadal NAO progression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The SW heat ridge/drought started in 1995, and 1998 is when the -PDO began.. that SW pattern is amped max right now. I personally think we are still in -PDO general and the Southwest pattern also goes with +AMO. Solar Max may have changed things a bit though. I've looked at what 2 cold NE Winter's in a row means for year 3.. it's neutral, 50/50. Absolutely, and we will be until the turn of the decade, but there are ENSO driven deviations from the multidecadal cycle....look at 1957....also near solar max and preceded by consecutive -PDO +ENSO events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Absolutely, and we will be until the turn of the decade, but there are ENSO driven deviations from the multidecadal cycle....look at 1957....also near solar max and preceded by consecutive -PDO +ENSO events. Turn of the decade?? So it's really a 15-year cycle as opposed to a literal decade? Boooooo...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Turn of the decade?? So it's really a 15-year cycle as opposed to a literal decade? Boooooo...lol MULTI-decadal cycle....it's more like 30 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: MULTI-decadal cycle....it's more like 30 years. I see...So around what year did this one actually start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: I see...So around what year did this one actually start? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 This is going to cause a massive DWKW and a huge shift in the thermocline…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 On 3/29/2026 at 11:14 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree concerning the pattern of stagnating patterns....I've noticed that, as well. Obviously if the data continues to support it, that's one thing, but at this early juncture I reman skeptical of an uber El Niño in such rapid succession with 2015-2016 and 2023-2024. If this winter is a mild, it's going to have to be due to the warm ENSO overwhelming because I just can not envision reverting to the cold west/warm east configuration of the 2020s with he tropical Pacific moving the direction that it is. I think that it’s still too early to focus in on the exact magnitude of the El Niño which is beginning to emerge . We need to watch the development into June to have a better idea once we get past the spring forecast barrier. The long range climate models have more of a coast to coast ridge look going forward like we saw this March with warmth extending across the country. So this would be a departure from the cold West and Warm East configuration. This may be related to the continuous North Pacific warm pool from Japan to California not really matching any traditional PDO composite. So it’s theoretically possible that we can get a robust Coast to Coast ridge like we saw this March regardless of the exact strength of the coming El Niño. Since the record 500 mb ridge over the West this past winter really wasn’t related to the La Niña magnitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think that it’s still too early to focus in on the exact magnitude of the El Niño which is beginning to emerge . We need to watch the development into June to have a better idea once we get past the spring forecast barrier. The long range climate models have more of a coast to coast ridge look going forward like we saw this March with warmth extending across the country. So this would be a departure from the cold West and Warm East configuration. This may be related to the continuous North Pacific warm pool from Japan to California not really matching any traditional PDO composite. So it’s theoretically possible that we can get a robust Coast to Coast ridge like we saw this March regardless of the exact strength of the coming El Niño. Since the record 500 mb ridge over the West this past winter really wasn’t related to the La Niña magnitude. https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/wmolc/ Well, anything is theoretically possible when ENSO isn't overwhelming....because other factors dictate the hemispheric pattern...too early to say just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 On 3/29/2026 at 11:40 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right, I'm not debating El Niño.....what is in question is intensity and persistence of -PDO. I think the largest concern for winter enthusiasts is a 1991-1992 type of outcome....whereas the PDO recovers to near neutral and it's still awful as the PV is very strong constricted, but I think Pinatub may have played a role there. 1991-92 wasnt bad here for a strong Nino. Average snowfall, a couple good storms. Mild overall, but multiple cold shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Just now, michsnowfreak said: 1991-92 wasnt bad here for a strong Nino. Average snowfall, a couple good storms. Mild overall, but multiple cold shots. 91-92 was 15" here, but a 10" March saved it being a total dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 91-92 was the strongest west-based Nino on record. It was also very +NAO/+AO in the cold season ^A lot of cold anomalies there around the volcano. Sometimes you have to zoom out and see what the bigger picture was like. 3 out of 5 times that cold of a H5 N. Hemisphere will produce cooler weather in the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 Check out what we experienced up to 3 years after the Pinatubo eruption Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 47 minutes ago, FPizz said: 91-92 was 15" here, but a 10" March saved it being a total dud. Actually had one of my favorite snow memories as a child. Snowstorm on Jan 14th. I was playing in the deep snow at my grandmas house (which is now my house). Around a foot of snow fell in 8 hours. Very dynamic quick hitting storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 91-92 was the strongest west-based Nino on record. It was also very +NAO/+AO in the cold season ^A lot of cold anomalies there around the volcano. Sometimes you have to zoom out and see what the bigger picture was like. 3 out of 5 times that cold of a H5 N. Hemisphere will produce cooler weather in the US I don't understand why it's so surprising that 1991-1992 was warm because it was such a a powerful El Niño, hardly weaker than 2015. It doesn't matter whether it's east or west when it gets over 2.0. It was significantly more powerful than 2009 and 2002. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Looking a the data, 2.0 is a pretty crucial threshold....you still have a fighting chance until you get over 2.0, then it's lights out. 1957 halted right at 2.0. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 NAO is probably going to be crucial this year, assuming ENSO does remain at or below 2.0, which I believe that it will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't understand why it's so surprising that 1991-1992 was warm because it was such a a powerful El Niño, hardly weaker than 2015. It doesn't matter whether it's east or west when it gets over 2.0. It was significantly more powerful than 2009 and 2002. I don't agree.. the forcing is on where the Hadley Cell and mid latitude cell meet, and that forcing is north of the El Nino.. west-based strong event gives you strong +PNA. You can actually see by the composite of that cold season that we did get +PNA, it was just mixed with +EPO/+AO/+NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looking a the data, 2.0 is a pretty crucial threshold....you still have a fighting chance until you get over 2.0, then it's lights out. 1957 halted right at 2.0. That 2.0 stuff is superstition. Mechanics of something doesn't change if it gets stronger. If a car that normally drives 40mph goes 100mph, it goes 100mph, not more left or right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: NAO is probably going to be crucial this year, assuming it does remain at or below 2.0, which I believe that it will. We are still in that +1-5 year from Solar Max window. You will say the NAO wasn't that bad last Winter, but the average of the last 14 months is very ++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I don't agree.. the forcing is on where the Hadley Cell and mid latitude cell meet, and that forcing is north of the El Nino.. west-based strong event gives you +PNA. You can actually see by the composite of that cold season that we did get +PNA, it was just mixed with +EPO/+AO/+NAO Most strong El Niño events give you +PNA....excessively strong El Ninio usually has a dearth if high. latitude blocking.....again, not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Most strong El Niño events give you +PNA....excessively strong El Ninio usually has a dearth if high. latitude blocking.....again, not surprising. Most strong events have the N. Pacific low further east.. over the North Pacific High region. You can see by that composite that the N. pacific low was actually pretty west that Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That 2.0 stuff is superstition. Mechanics of something doesn't change if it gets stronger. If a car that normally drives 40mph goes 100mph, it goes 100mph, not more left or right. No, until you find me a +ENSO north of 2.0 that offered a favorable outcome for winter enthusiasts, it's factual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Most strong events have the N. Pacific low further east.. over the North Pacific High region. You can see by that composite that the N. pacific low was actually pretty west that Winter. I'm not arguing the pattern doesn't look different....I'm arguing it doesn't really matter if ENSO gets that powerful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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