2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I’ve noticed that there’s a significant number especially in the northern U.S. here and at other wx bbs who like cold only for snow chances and otherwise prefer mild in winter. They hate cold and dry, complain about it being “useless cold”, and prefer mild if it’s not going to snow. The good news with very strong El Niño winters is that there’s typically not as much cold, dry wx as in other winters. There will generally be a few significant to possibly major snowstorms but otherwise lots of mild for those folks to enjoy.

 I always prefer cold but I’m deep in the SE US and thus cold here isn’t typically that cold up north. If I were living up north, I’d probably have a different take on my desire for cold and would enjoy mild periods much more as mild up there is not nearly as warm as down here and too much and too severe cold would get tiring fast.

 

Ive noticed that too...and im certainly NOT one of them lol. I love cold.

But it goes without saying that "cold" and "mild" are extremely subjective terms. Cold in Detroit is different than cold in NYC, to say nothing of the difference between NYC and where you live, and so on. 

A mild winter here will still be cold enough to snow much of the time. This is why as always storm track/pattern is more important than just temps. I hear the east coast guys talk of their worst winters where they can count on on one hand the number of times it snowed. Its a lock that its going to snow here dozens of times...the key is will there be worthwhile storms? Will it be abnormally dry? And so on.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

May finishes with a -13.22 SOI

Since Apr 2016: Top -SOI Months (out of 121 Total months):

1. Feb 24: -15.55

2. May 23: -15.26

3. Feb 19: -14.62

4. Sept 23: -13.87

5. May 26: -13.22

6. Sept 19: -12.72

April-May finishes with a -23.10 SOI

Since Apr 2016: Top -SOI 2-Months:

1. Aug-Sept 24: -24.72

2. Apr-May 26: -23.10

3. Feb-Mar 19: -21.10

All others above -20

[forkyfork]

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CPC continuing to go with El Nino jet stream

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12z EPS really warmed up over the Great Lakes/Northeast in the medium/long term. Anti-El Nino. 

[snowman19]

[raindancewx]

New Canadian run has a nice Summer for me - wet and cool, especially June/July. Monsoon very strong for Mexico and the SW US.

Cold winter for the eastern US depicted, although Jan is pretty cold in most of the country. Gulf of Alaska low is kind of...south of the Gulf of Alaska.

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

New Canadian run has a nice Summer for me - wet and cool, especially June/July. Monsoon very strong for Mexico and the SW US.

Cold winter for the eastern US depicted, although Jan is pretty cold in most of the country. Gulf of Alaska low is kind of...south of the Gulf of Alaska.

 The new Cansips for DJF fwiw is along with the stronger Nino a bit colder than the prior run in the E US. I think it still has more correcting to do. Note by the way that these temp maps use the somewhat colder 1981-2010 climo:

Old:

New:

 

It’s a bit wetter in the SE to Mid Atlantic and a bit drier in a good portion of the Midwest, OH Valley, and MidSouth:

Old:

New:

[snowman19]

Maybe we can start a winter thread and keep this one strictly ENSO instead of posting temp and precip maps for winter

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe we can start a winter thread and keep this one strictly ENSO instead of posting temp and precip maps for winter

These annual ENSO threads have always included US winter forecast discussion.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2015's big +PDO is starting to diverge us in the NW, US through the 2nd half of May and now heading into June. Watch out expecting a big Winter month or two like that year, because the PDO was >+1 in 2015. Favorable NAO can help though, of course. 

[snowman19]

[mitchnick]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The new Cansips for DJF fwiw is along with the stronger Nino a bit colder than the prior run in the E US. I think it still has more correcting to do. Note by the way that these temp maps use the somewhat colder 1981-2010 climo:

Old:

New:

 

It’s a bit wetter in the SE to Mid Atlantic and a bit drier in a good portion of the Midwest, OH Valley, and MidSouth:

Old:

New:

Looked good to me!

[mitchnick]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe we can start a winter thread and keep this one strictly ENSO instead of posting temp and precip maps for winter

I sorta thought the whole discussion regarding Enso was how it effects weather. I don't think anybody really would care otherwise about equatorial Pacific temperatures outside of Pacific fishermen/shipping interests. 

[roardog]

41 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I sorta thought the whole discussion regarding Enso was how it effects weather. I don't think anybody really would care otherwise about equatorial Pacific temperatures outside of Pacific fishermen/shipping interests. 

I’d be all for summer discussion in this thread too but there isn’t much interest in that. 

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

12z EPS really warmed up over the Great Lakes/Northeast in the medium/long term. Anti-El Nino. 

Probably a function of the more Niña-like -PDO with the WPAC warm pool. Plus the ongoing drought. So another case of the 500mb ridges becoming stronger more expansive during the 2020s than we have typically seen in the past.

 

[LakePaste25]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Probably a function of the more Niña-like -PDO with the WPAC warm pool. Plus the ongoing drought. So another case of the 500mb ridges becoming stronger more expansive during the 2020s than we have typically seen in the past.

 

To be fair, we are also putting a major dent in the warm pool, and the warmest waters are now between 160-170E with plenty of westerlies remaining in the forecast.

 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Probably a function of the more Niña-like -PDO with the WPAC warm pool. Plus the ongoing drought. So another case of the 500mb ridges becoming stronger more expansive during the 2020s than we have typically seen in the past.

 

It hasn't happened yet! It's a forecast. Eps were too warm with the end of May forecast, soooo....

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe we can start a winter thread and keep this one strictly ENSO instead of posting temp and precip maps for winter unless it's warm, then post away

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The new Cansips for DJF fwiw is along with the stronger Nino a bit colder than the prior run in the E US. I think it still has more correcting to do. Note by the way that these temp maps use the somewhat colder 1981-2010 climo:

Old:

New:

 

It’s a bit wetter in the SE to Mid Atlantic and a bit drier in a good portion of the Midwest, OH Valley, and MidSouth:

Old:

New:

Kind of looks like last winter with a STJ added.

Interesting.

[snowman19]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

And if I dared to post a torch winter run in this dedicated ENSO thread you would be on me like white on rice

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And if I dared to post a torch winter run in this dedicated ENSO thread you would be on me like white on rice

No, I wouldn't. Did you see my May blog?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Am I sold on a torch? No, but it's very possible.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I sorta thought the whole discussion regarding Enso was how it effects weather. I don't think anybody really would care otherwise about equatorial Pacific temperatures outside of Pacific fishermen/shipping interests. 

Weve always discussed the weather in the ENSO threads. Im really going out on a limb here, but I have a feeling the Cansips not caving from its cold idea is what prompted that suggestion. 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And if I dared to post a torch winter run in this dedicated ENSO thread you would be on me like white on rice

 Torch, cold, in between, or whatever winter runs have been an integral part of these annual threads for as long as I can remember. Without them, these ENSO titled threads would be much quieter. I’ve personally posted a good # of winter runs (often with caveats like “fwiw” due to model unreliability/biases) in every one of these threads whether mild, cold, or whatever without anyone including you ever having a problem with the posts. I don’t understand why you out of the blue made a big deal just after I posted the latest Cansips maps as a follow-up to raindance’s post. To me it was a perfect example of this:

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

I’d be all for summer discussion in this thread too but there isn’t much interest in that. 

Yeah. ENSO affects winter the most, with more subtle effects in summer/Fall. I absolutely love Fall, so Im hoping that its a seasonable October. Some strong Nino falls tend to be cool, but if this strong nino isnt acting like one, then who knows?

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, GaWx said:

 Torch, cold, in between, or whatever winter runs have been an integral part of these annual threads for as long as I can remember. Without them, these ENSO titled threads would be much quieter. I’ve personally posted a good # of winter runs (often with caveats like “fwiw” due to model unreliability/biases) in every one of these threads whether mild, cold, or whatever without anyone including you having a problem with the posts. I don’t understand why you out of the blue made a big deal just after I posted the latest Cansips maps. To me it was a perfect example of this:

 

I do. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I do think we need to remain mindful of the fact that there has been some sort of shift in the North Pacific the past couple of years....the dominant +WPO is over. That was part of the reason 2023, and that several year stretch, was so mild in the NE.

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I do. 

 But what’s mysterious is that there have been numerous chilly winter maps posted for this and past winters with many significantly colder than this and without objection. Yes, this is colder than the prior month’s run, which was my main point, but it’s still NN in the E US. The coldest is only 0.5C BN, which is NN. Granted it’s 1981-2010 climo, but that’s still NN. So, it’s not even a cold map there!

[snowman19]