2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

 What’s odd is the comparison of the record high 10 hPa/60N-90N temps in Oct/Nov on NCEP (top) and NASA (bottom). NCEP looks like it has artifacts caused by algorithmic errors with two nearly vertical peaks that don’t look natural. Thus I’ve decided that the NASA graph is correct, and record high temps are being forecasted at 10 hPa/60-90N after all with 217K ~Nov 8th.

 NCEP Oct/Nov 2 near vertical peaks for old record high temps (black) don’t look natural/look like artifacts and thus this makes it appear nowhere near record high temps are being forecasted (green):

 

 NASA Oct/Nov old record high temps don’t have artifacts and thus new early Nov record high temps are being forecasted (red), which makes sense due to this being the first on record early Nov SSW causing record shattering low 10 hPa/60N winds:

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

the reality is that ALL THREE of this seasons produced snowfalls of well over a foot on the CP of SNE, and 2/3 had substantial MC contribution, so I think folks need to cool it with the group think philosophy and pry open their minds a bit.

My focus has been on how much warmer each of the months since May have been exceeding the seasonal long range model forecasts and past developing super El Niño events.

We all know with super El Niños is that it only takes one well timed storm with just enough cold to snow to make a late season snowstorm.

1997-1998 was a weaker east based event featuring no MC forcing. We had a very active East Coast storm track. Many lows hugged the East Coast. Several lows also tracked out near the Benchmark.

But the very powerful EPAC vortex and STJ never really allowed high pressure to become established long enough over the Northeast. So places like NYC Metro saw many rainstorms and very little snow through DJF.

It was actually March which delivered the best snow of the season. But March into even early April during the 1990s was much colder and snowier than the 2020s.  March snowfall through the first 6 years of the 2020s is at record lows for any 6 year period on record.

So in order to out some snow points on the board around NYC Metro, we would want to do it before we get into March which has become so much warmer this decade. 

Let’s see what happens. But we would need to get an improvement in the lack of cold high pressure in the Northeast vs 1997-1998 to see better snowfall results. 
 

 

[CoastalWx]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

The mean 500 flow isn’t really ridging on the models. However, there is split flow there so there could be some in the means…but also the high heights is a sign of anomalous warmth too.

[EasternLI]

17 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not directed at you Don, just in general.. 

I wish the scientific ambit would elect to place a "P" on SSW as a suffix, for/if/when an intrusion of warming into the PV/stratospheric pressure coordinates is proven ( crucially ) to be a downward "P"ropagating event.  

There is a life cycle to the SSW --> -AO, that requires some 20 to 30 days to complete.  Whether this is that, or just an intrusion that quickly disappears ... still remains to be seen. 

This needs to be factored into this "suspected" intrusion event and I'm not reading anywhere, in or outside this social media ... like that is in the gears of reasoning.   

First of all, the AO is progged currently at CPC to go ~ -.75 SD over this next week.   There is no antecedent SSW/propagating downward phenomenon prior to that occurring.  Should this 10 mb warm node and any vortex collapse become resonate ( downward radiating through the vortex) .... your looking at the end of November before any AO mode response - when considering the proven total SSW phenology.   

I just suspect that SSW is being blurred in the proper usage of why Sudden Stratospheric Warming was originally identified.  Since there are intrusion events that don't down well, yeah... technically it's a warming in the stratosphere that is/was rather expedient in how it manifested.   But semantically... and really machine wise, if you want an SSW to correlate to winter at mid latitude, it has to go thru 20+ day downward evolution, then the -AO happens. And I still don't see that very convincingly modeled in the GFS.       

What I do see occurring is both aft of present and continuing in the models, a warmer than normal static 70 to 100 hPa level state.  I'm willing to hunch pretty heavily that it's CC related... This looks more like a pan-dimensional aspect than an intrusion - aside from the fact that it's emerging from the bottom up.  As well, it is/has vastly predated(s) the canonical 'disruption season'.    

 

 

Now, I'm not disputing any of that. In fact I value your opinions on these types of things. This just feels like a good opportunity to add to that thought. It's an interesting topic, and some interesting questions. 

 

What is this exactly? It is different.

 

It is of the bottom -> up variety. EURO is showing the same thing. With the temp anomaly pushing up from the bottom. 

 

 

Like you said, this is the opposite of the classical model for these. Which start up high and work it's way down. I've seen a theory floating around on why we might be more prone to that type of thing currently. I don't know how true this could be or not, but it seems like a good time to bring it up. The increased water vapor from the Hunga Tonga volcano several years ago. It's still been cycling through the stratosphere along with the QBO. While it very slowly attempts to dissipate. It is a little interesting that closer to 100mb is a bit drier than higher up. Could this be the reason for the bottom -> up activity? NASA has a great site that keeps track of that, here it is on the following image.

 

 

So, if el nino ultimately is behind this strat event this year? Which I think that is probably likely. If so, is this the type of warming event a steroidal el nino would normally provide minus that eruption? I'm not so sure. Intuitively, it makes sense that something about this could be unfolding differently had that eruption not happened. What that could be, I have no idea. Maybe it wouldn't... It's an interesting question. What are the ramifications of this particular event? We don't have many samples, and maybe not any. Will be interesting to see what models do with it once it's underway.

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The mean 500 flow isn’t really ridging on the models. However, there is split flow there so there could be some in the means…but also the high heights is a sign of anomalous warmth too.

Strong signal for a warm November too

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

Now that the multi-run CFS’ have warmed considerably in the E US for Feb vs how they were a couple of weeks ago, the above Nov Cansips run for Feb is notably colder by ~2F than the latest 3 day CFS for Feb, which is below (even after considering the ~1F colder climo being used by this TT CFS):

The difference between the Cansips and current Cfs2 runs isn't that much really. Precip signatures are very close indicating coastal storms. With Cfs2 running 4x/day, it's far from "done" adjusting one way or the other. For those of us inland (as in you and me), we'll have our shots for sure.

[qg_omega]

12 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

We’re at the point where it *finally* initialized the next month (November) correctly as an east-based event. But once again it tries to go “super Modoki” the following months which I don’t think is accurate.

 

Makes no sense for the El Niño to move west which makes these forecasts irrelevant

[qg_omega]

November will likely be warmest month on record for CONUS

[snowman19]

28 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Makes no sense for the El Niño to move west which makes these forecasts irrelevant

The CANSIPS was/is by far and away the worst. Just embarrassingly horrible with both the strength and orientation of this El Niño. It was the weakest of all the other models (dead wrong), it finally, at long last just woke up and is now showing a +4.1C peak in December and it kept insisting on a Modoki event (also dead wrong) and it still is. Just awful. It needs a complete overhaul

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The CANSIPS was/is by far and away the worst. Just embarrassingly horrible with both the strength and orientation of this El Niño. It was the weakest of all the other models (dead wrong), it finally, at long last just woke up and is now showing a +4.1C peak in December and it kept insisting on a Modoki event (also dead wrong) and it still is. Just awful. It needs a complete overhaul

 CANSIPS, like seasonal models in general, is highly deficient. I have the impression that it is one of the more deficient ones in general. But even the better seasonal models (like the Euro supposedly is, for example) have their deficiencies. In a way, I’m glad because if they weren’t deficient the seasonal models would be in agreement and would be pretty much right all of the time (assuming accurate initializations), and then there’d be far less of a need to have these intense forecasting discussions. Thus, there’d be far fewer than 233 pages ITT, for example.

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 CANSIPS, like seasonal models in general, is highly deficient. I have the impression that it is one of the more deficient ones in general. But even the better seasonal models (like the Euro supposedly is, for example) have their deficiencies. In a way, I’m glad because if they weren’t deficient the seasonal models would be in agreement and would be pretty much right all of the time (assuming accurate initializations), and then there’d be far less of a need to have these intense forecasting discussions. Thus, there’d be far fewer than 233 pages ITT, for example.

Iow, we'd have to find something else to argue about?....That shouldn't be hard! Lol

Thanks to Weather Will in MA forum, JB posted the Canadian's snowfall map for November's run.

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, EasternLI said:

What are the ramifications of this particular event? We don't have many samples, and maybe not any. Will be interesting to see what models do with it once it's underway.

This is only the 4th November with a major SSW event. So our sample size is very small. But all 3 previous events were associated with the general November 500mb North American pattern persisting and gaining amplitude through DJF.

This was the case in 2025-2026, 1968-1969, and 1952-1953.  Should this pattern repeat again in 2026-2027, then this very warm November El Niño pattern will become more amplified during DJF.

It would be interesting to find the specific mechanism associated with the early SSW which lead to the November pattern persisting and amplifying through the entire winter in those years.

Since it’s very rare for the November pattern to persist through DJF most years. A few seasonal forecasts last year basically repeated the November 2025 500mb pattern for DJF and it worked out for them.
 

 

19 November 1952

28 November 1968

28 November 2025
 

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Iow, we'd have to find something else to argue about?....That shouldn't be hard! Lol

Thanks to Weather Will in MA forum, JB posted the Canadian's snowfall map for November's run.

Speaking of JB, these are his analogs for NDJFM per yesterday’s free to all “Saturday Summary”:

 

[GaWx]

Latest OISST anomalies per cyclonicwx:

RONI: hardly any net change since Oct 1 (ONI graph similar): reduce this a few tenths to estimate NOAA’s weeklies. This shows no signs of heading to +3.5 as of this time, especially if one considers that NOAA’s weeklies have been coming in a few tenths cooler

 

Nino 1+2 non-relative: only a very slight net rise since Oct 1

 

Nino 3 non-relative: ~0.35C rise since Oct 1

 

Nino 4 non-relative very little net change since Oct 1 because recent rise followed a fall

[MJO812]

Its great to see the NAO, AO and PNA become favorable along with a PV split . There is a lag so maybe we can see colder air come down towards mid to late November.

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its great to see the NAO, AO and PNA become favorable along with a PV split . There is a lag so maybe we can see colder air come down towards mid to late November.

Per @Stormchaserchuck1the lag this early is typically 30-45 days. That would imply that any colder air coming down related to this SSW if it’s going to occur would likely not occur til early to mid Dec. However, there could always be colder periods not related to this SSW coming down earlier, of course.

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Per @Stormchaserchuck1the lag this early is typically 30-45 days. That would imply that any colder air coming down related to this SSW if it’s going to occur would likely not occur til early to mid Dec. However, there could always be colder periods not related to this SSW coming down earlier, of course.

Agree

[leo2000]

Some were in a rush for it to come down on November 20th don't think that will happen with the SSW but their is also a recurring typhoon which will push some colder air out east too. Looking at the positive side of this winter is the extensive siberian snow cover which strongly correlates with a weaker PV. 

[CoastalWx]

I’m not exactly sure we see much if any effects from the Strat split. In fact if the PNA tries to get slightly negative like some guidance shows by mid Novie, the east could get quite mild. 
 

Any lag would be perhaps later November to start, but all the guidance into December continues to show a classic strong Nino look overwhelming any Strat coupling. We shall see, but I’m not hopeful on anything more than a cool spell here or there.

[stadiumwave]

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

He predicted the weakening of the PV back in the summer. Great call.

[MJO812]

[CoastalWx]

A SSW in Jan and esp Feb would definitely have a better chance of changing the pattern vs anything now. I know weenies want their hopes up for this one, but I would look to later in the season.