2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[frontranger8]

23 hours ago, snowman19 said:

One thing is for sure. These ridiculous, bombastic claims on twitter today that 2009-10 is the best “analog” for this winter are going to go down in flames. That is quite possibly the worst analog in the entire history of mankind. It’s actually laughable and embarrassing that anyone would think that’s a perfect match for this year. Fantasy, cope, deep denial, fake news, delusion and wishcasting at its finest

The great thing about analogs is that even the most "perfect" match does not mean the winter will be even close to it.

[snowman19]

This is just extraordinary at this point….the onslaught of WWBs and DWKWs is progged to continue into November. Here comes another one. It’s been relentless since the end of March. This is certain to result in more surface and subsurface warming……the strongest El Niño in history is all but a guarantee….



We have left 1997 in the dust:

[frontranger8]

19 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

Down the line, that seems like a discouraging sign for December. After initial weakening, the PV rapidly rebuilds and that is another piece of evidence pointing toward a very warm December. which is a strong signal in historic analogs. Recall that last year, the disruption occurred in late November and that contributed to a cold start in December with an Arctic spell mid-month. The end of December into early January torched for the majority of the CONUS right as the PV rebuilt. 

I suspect this time, if it even couples to the troposphere, it would only really benefit Europe with cold/snow based on the large scale pattern. 

Maybe it implies potential for disruptions or splitting later in the season, but historically that is less likely with this ENSO/QBO combo. Either way, I think there are bad actors who are clinging onto this as confirmation bias of cold/snow in order to sell subscriptions or get social media views. 

I thought that the earlier in the season SSW's happen, the longer they take to propagate to the troposphere? 30-45 days is what I believe I read for November.

[GaWx]

39 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

Down the line, that seems like a discouraging sign for December. After initial weakening, the PV rapidly rebuilds and that is another piece of evidence pointing toward a very warm December. which is a strong signal in historic analogs. Recall that last year, the disruption occurred in late November and that contributed to a cold start in December with an Arctic spell mid-month. The end of December into early January torched for the majority of the CONUS right as the PV rebuilt. 

I suspect this time, if it even couples to the troposphere, it would only really benefit Europe with cold/snow based on the large scale pattern. 

Maybe it implies potential for disruptions or splitting later in the season, but historically that is less likely with this ENSO/QBO combo. Either way, I think there are bad actors who are clinging onto this as confirmation bias of cold/snow in order to sell subscriptions or get social media views. 

Thanks. I don’t doubt the bad actors!

For me this is introducing more variability for Dec than I had assumed previously. Based on @snowman19posts on +QBO/ENSO analogs as well as my own research to confirm Adam’s mild E US forecast, I had been thinking mild Dec except possibly NN SE, especially deep SE. But with this historically very early SSW coming, I feel that there’s increased uncertainty for Dec.

Per @Stormchaserchuck1the avg lag from an SSW to first getting well down into the troposphere early in the season is 35-40 days if I recall correctly. This would mean ~Dec 9-14 for it to first reach well down. And then it would last for a period of time (most likely 2-3 weeks minimum per history). Thus, this increases the possibility of a cold overall E US Dec, especially mid to late month and especially SE US, vs my prior thinking from very low to a nontrivial chance.

[snowman19]

This ++PMM setting more records….

[Typhoon Tip]

50 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yes they do have a selection. Not everything but some. Looking for something in particular?

i'm trying to figure out if i need to establish alternate/ancillary sources. This measure would be for the off chance that greed and/or corruption and/or the unstoppable epidemic of growing standardizing idiocy, or some combination of all these..., at last succeed in hiding the telecon from general access.

It is getting harder and harder to find what should be free. 

As an aside, humanity really needs a comet named Humility to set it back to something like a realization of how bad their shit stinks and humility.   

LOL... but this is a lot for an answer to "...looking for something particular?" I know.  hahaha

Seriously, ... I may have to pick a source and I'd like it to be good.

So right now the CPC - the only remaining easy access site - indicates a descending AO modality, ending in a dish-pan negative mode ... -.75 or -1 heading into the first week of Novie.   However, the CPC assesses the AO based upon the geopotential height anomaly.  This can be misleading at times... because the specific curvature geometry of the isohypses around the stereographic projection of the hemisphere are not always consistent with actual high latitude blocking we'd normally associate with the -AO state. 

Case in point, last night's extended GEFs rendition around the hemisphere.

There is a some semblance, though very modest, of a block in the NE EPO domain N of Alaska there, but that's hardly substantive.  This is sort of suggestive that the AOs negative might be coming more from numerical orientation, where positives are N and negatives S; but, not being representative very well in the orientation of the height gradient/geometry. It's kind of fake - so to speak.  

Other sources/ corroboration might be useful here. 

That all said, so long as we're on the telecon topic.  This is an impressive PNA signal frankly. That image above does fit the +PNA quite well, and so the spatial orientation fit the numerology - and said graphics are remarkably well clustered for late mid and extended range...

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

Down the line, that seems like a discouraging sign for December. After initial weakening, the PV rapidly rebuilds and that is another piece of evidence pointing toward a very warm December. which is a strong signal in historic analogs. Recall that last year, the disruption occurred in late November and that contributed to a cold start in December with an Arctic spell mid-month. The end of December into early January torched for the majority of the CONUS right as the PV rebuilt. 

I suspect this time, if it even couples to the troposphere, it would only really benefit Europe with cold/snow based on the large scale pattern. 

Maybe it implies potential for disruptions or splitting later in the season, but historically that is less likely with this ENSO/QBO combo. Either way, I think there are bad actors who are clinging onto this as confirmation bias of cold/snow in order to sell subscriptions or get social media views. 

Agreed that if it rises fast, it won't be a good thing for a cold or snowy December especially in light of enso climo. But if you go to the link below for that graph, as recently as 10/14 or 10/15, the PV split (I'll call it for ease) wasn't even showing up on that weekly prog, and was very slow thereafter to show the extent of the PV's demise. So I  guess, probably because I've lived in the M. Atlantic snow hole for so many years, I'll not worry about the state of the PV come December or trust the PV forecast at this distance.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202610140000

[GaWx]

41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i'm trying to figure out if i need to establish alternate/ancillary sources. This measure, in the off chance that greed and/or corruption and/or the unstoppable epidemic of growing standardizing idiocy, or some combination of all these..., at last succeed in hiding the telecon from general access.

It is getting harder and harder to find what should be free. 

As an aside, humanity really needs a comet named Humility to set it back to something like a realization of how bad their shit stinks and humility.   

LOL... but this is a lot to look for, I know.  hahaha

Seriously, ... I may have to pick a source and I'd like it to be good.

So right now the CPC - the only remaining easy access site - indicates a descending AO modality, ending in a dish-pan negative mode ... -.75 or -1.   However, the CPC assesses the AO based upon the geopotential height anomaly.  This can be misleading at times... because the specific curvature geometry of the isohypses around the stereographic projection of the hemisphere are not always consistent with actual high latitude blocking we'd normally associate with the -AO state. 

Case in point, last night's extended GEFs rendition around the hemisphere.

There is a some semblance, though very modest, of a block in the NE EPO domain N of Alaska there, but that's hardly substantive.  This is more sort suggestive that the AOs negative coming purely from numerical positive N and negative S, but not being representative very well in the orientation of the height gradient/geometry, it is kind of fake - so to speak.  

Other sources/ corroboration might be useful here. 

 John,

 I’m being extra wary of the GEFS AO progs because they’ve been verifying significantly too -AO, especially in week 2:

July 1st-Oct 28th verification: AO +0.6559 per image below

vs mean GEFS progs of (all from image below):

day 7: +0.287 (too -AO most days since Sep 1st)
day 10: +0.0533 (too -AO since Sep 1st by larger amount)
day 14: -0.086 (too -AO since Aug 25th by even larger amount)

 

 

[snowman19]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. I don’t doubt the bad actors!
For me this is introducing more variability for Dec than I had assumed previously. Based on [mention=13098]snowman19[/mention]posts on +QBO/ENSO analogs as well as my own research to confirm Adam’s mild E US forecast, I had been thinking mild Dec except possibly NN SE, especially deep SE. But with this historically very early SSW coming, I feel that there’s increases uncertainty for Dec.
Per [mention=20019]Stormchaserchuck1[/mention]the avg lag from an SSW to first getting well down into the troposphere early in the season is 35-40 days if I recall correctly. This would mean ~Dec 9-14 for it to first reach well down. And then it would last for a period of time (most likely 2-3 weeks minimum per history). Thus, this increases the possibility of a cold overall E US Dec, especially mid to late month and especially SE US, vs my prior thinking from very low to a nontrivial chance.

IMO I see no reason to deviate from my +QBO/El Nino December guess. I completely agree with @Winter Wizard take:

“Down the line, that seems like a discouraging sign for December. After initial weakening, the PV rapidly rebuilds and that is another piece of evidence pointing toward a very warm December. which is a strong signal in historic analogs. Recall that last year, the disruption occurred in late November and that contributed to a cold start in December with an Arctic spell mid-month. The end of December into early January torched for the majority of the CONUS right as the PV rebuilt.

I suspect this time, if it even couples to the troposphere, it would only really benefit Europe with cold/snow based on the large scale pattern.

Maybe it implies potential for disruptions or splitting later in the season, but historically that is less likely with this ENSO/QBO combo. Either way, I think there are bad actors who are clinging onto this as confirmation bias of cold/snow in order to sell subscriptions or get social media views.”

 

 

 

 

[soadforecasterx]

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is just extraordinary at this point….the onslaught of WWBs and DWKWs is progged to continue into November. Here comes another one. It’s been relentless since the end of March. This is certain to result in more surface and subsurface warming……the strongest El Niño in history is all but a guarantee….



We have left 1997 in the dust:


 

I have been following this all year. Gem has lead the way and makes things look even more robust

[GaWx]

41 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Agreed that if it rises fast, it won't be a good thing for a cold or snowy December especially in light of enso climo. But if you go to the link below for that graph, as recently as 10/14 or 10/15, the PV split (I'll call it for ease) wasn't even showing up on that weekly prog, and was very slow thereafter to show the extent of the PV's demise. So I  guess, probably because I've lived in the M. Atlantic snow hole for so many years, I'll not worry about the state of the PV come December or trust the PV forecast at this distance.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202610140000

Mitch,

 The modeled 10 mb/60N wind rise after the historic dip is by no means faster than what commonly happens with SSWs, especially early season SSWs.

 Looking at the image below, one can that the plunges downward from SSWs are often followed by pretty sharp rises soon afterward. By that time, the SSW has already done its “damage” so to speak. 
 

 Look at the SSWs in here (circled). I count 8 SSWs prior to Jan 1st: 

1952, 1958, 1965, 1968, 1981, 1984, 1987, and 1998

 Most of these other than 1984 rose fairly steeply within a few weeks, which is what the models are showing for 2026 (assuming they will even be right obviously). Even some of those after Jan 1st rose steeply.

@snowman19@Winter Wizard