2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Told ya'!  Lol

I’m really surprised that a legit meteorologist would make such bold claims. 09/10 is about the worst analog possible. That was the winter of all time for the mid Atlantic and has no other comparison in the historical record.


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[A-L-E-K]

drag 'em

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

drag 'em

Everyone who puts themselves out there is going to miss...like he missed last year...some our transparent and honest with ourselves, others not so much.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m really surprised that a legit meteorologist would make such bold claims. 09/10 is about the worst analog possible. That was the winter of all time for the mid Atlantic and has no other comparison in the historical record.


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Maybe its because the Mid Atlantic will see most of the storms. Jet stream will be aligned for them. 

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everyone who puts themselves out there is going to miss...like he missed last year...some our transparent and honest with ourselves, others not so much.

we all make mistakes

On 9/8/2025 at 12:09 PM, forkyfork said:

second year nina with a raging negative pdo. i hope you have a good supply of zoloft for this winter

 

[MJO812]

[Cobalt]

On 8/23/2025 at 6:23 PM, forkyfork said:

above normal temps and below normal snow. that's my official forecast for every winter for the rest of our lives

 

[Cobalt]

On 11/6/2025 at 7:00 PM, forkyfork said:

this is the climate change nina that will be front loaded 

 

[Cobalt]

On 10/29/2025 at 6:44 PM, forkyfork said:

all your poor kids will never see a winter like we had growing up. sad

 

[Cobalt]

On 9/8/2025 at 11:12 AM, forkyfork said:

i can't wait to lowpost in january when we barely get to freezing

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I still think one or possibly two events could workout later in February with a second ssw. Even 72/73 which was horrendous in NYC had a big one in the southern mid Atlantic. So there is definitely precedent. I think we get hung up on 97/98 too much. That winter everything just went wrong.


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[40/70 Benchmark]

@forkyforkMy mistake concerning underselling ENSO early on was being focused too much on periodicity given the magnitude of the 2023 event just 3 years ago, but upon gaining a more through appreciation for the impact that the solar cycle on ENSO, I now realize that it was 2023 that was the anomaly given that it occurred near solar max. This event is occurring right in the descending solar wheelhouse.

 

My guess is the magnitude of 2023 was largely the result of CC in that it represented a failed effort to redistribute that warm pool eastward...if at first you don't succeed....

[forkyfork]

On 4/5/2026 at 2:01 PM, roardog said:

This is really going to be fascinating to watch. If we didn’t have that very strong Nino in 23-24, I think I would be fully on board for a super Nino this year. If we would have had a strong Nina in the last two years I might even be reluctantly on board. However, since we never get such a strong Nino so close in years, it just makes me feel like something is going to fail that the models can’t see right now. In 2022 we even had the MEI get down to something like -2.2 which made a rebound strong Nino seem likely. We have nothing like that this year. 

nope

[Cobalt]

I wonder if he wished for a super nino for the big 40th, or maybe some humility

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

He already busted last winter.

[Keith Central PA]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe its because the Mid Atlantic will see most of the storms. Jet stream will be aligned for them. 

09-10 had a cold December and a snowstorm on December 19th..That's not happening this year, wish it would, sorry

[forkyfork]

On 4/7/2026 at 1:18 AM, GaWx said:

Being that the current OISST dailies suggest that RONI is likely ~-0.3 to -0.4, it is a very tall order to get the full April averaged RONI to rise all of the way to  +0.6, which is what this BoM run has. We’ll see what the very strong WWB/TC triplets are able to do. The rate of April warming would probably have to be well beyond record highs to get April RONI up to +0.6. The daily RONIs may have to approach +1.5 by April 30th!! I don’t see that being realistic at all.

poor thing

[A-L-E-K]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everyone who puts themselves out there is going to miss...like he missed last year...some our transparent and honest with ourselves, others not so much.

here for it obviously

these are heady times for those of us into anomalous wx of all types

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

09-10 had a cold December and a snowstorm on December 19th..That's not happening this year, wish it would, sorry

Not going to be like that winter unless very strong blocking happens.