2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The Nino is not impacting the N. Pacific that much. If we can get a sustained -AO period, I don't see why it can't get cool, even Dec.

Completely disagree.

[LakePaste25]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Not really. Strong few-day troughs are common in October.

Models keep it going far longer than “a few days.” Sure we can see if they verify first, but if it persists then it’s the December Nino pattern a full month early. 

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

John, how do you feel about last winter's early season warming? I know there was some skepticism there, as well, and it ultimately (at least partially) led to a colder turn in January. I'm not trying to gaslight you or anything, either...honest inquiry.

You know notice I am not suggesting or saying at all, that it won't be advantageous to pattern orientation ( depending on what one wants - ) ?

I'm not sure it makes a difference.   That's why I said 'straw man' above.  Not sure anyone's really arguing.  I just don't like the untrue application/attribution thing, and I read/heard a bunch of it from 'social media celebrities'

Either correlates to a favorable pattern. Think getting there via different wholesale means.   I would "possssibly" argue that the bottom-->up variety is more conducive to NE Pacific heights ...but you can see how therein in drives almost   no   difference for the N/A continent.    Contrasting, the -AO forcing from a SSW full cycle forcing has it's own variability.  In 2006-2007, for example there was a very impressive SSW museum piece event,

  Yet, the incredible balmy historic warmth ongoing across the N/A mid latitudes actually persisted for 2 weeks longer - really - than it should have.  The blocking and cold unloaded over in Russia/Siberia first, because the planetary wave # was destructively interfering the genesis of cold conveyor over on our side of the hemisphere.  That changed of course...we end up with some winter in February that year...  

Point being, these correlators for bringing cold into mid latitudes are not single sourced, as well, can vary in and of themselves.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Models keep it going far longer than “a few days.” Sure we can see if they verify first, but if it persists then it’s the December Nino pattern a full month early. 

I've already told you this, but the historical ENSO-N. Pacific trough correlation is -0.38 for Oct-Nov combined and -0.32 for Dec.

[LakePaste25]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I've already told you this, but the historical ENSO-N. Pacific trough correlation is -0.38 for Oct-Nov combined and -0.32 for Dec

The east based super Nino cool season composite is a deep GOA low and extended pacific jet December-March.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

The east based super Nino cool season composite is a deep GOA low and extended pacific jet December-March.

Yeah, the Nov correlation maps are stronger over NAO area than N. Pacific. You're right. But the pattern does start in October and over enough examples might not skip a month (although Oct is further west with the pattern - you're right). 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We can say that the pattern the last few weeks has been reversed from the same time period back in 1997.

The strongest 500 mb trough and STJ is near the Southwest rather than the Southeast leading to the flooding and severe weather more focused in the Southwest. 

This is why the CONUS and in particular the Southeast has been so much warmer this October than it was back in 1997. 

The long range seasonal models from a month ago missed the more Southwest focused heavy rainfall. Same for the EPS weeklies beyond week 1 issued in early October.

So we’ll just have to monitor going forward to see if some elements of this early season pattern continue.

October 12th to 23rd 2026 500 mb pattern compared to 1997

 

 

 

October seasonal rainfall forecast issued in early September 

 

Verification

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't disagree with your reasoning here and product issuance and so forth..

I would only add that the base-climate is very steep since 1997.  That does sort of tilt matters from being straight up clearly attributable to ENSO.   ...in terms of temperature departures down the SE ... Seasonality should also be considered -

The SE could easily have fared warmer than 1997 in the absence of these warm ENSO autumns.  I also have some reservation about attributes with ENSO prior to the gradient of the hemisphere drawing the El Nino into the fight.  Having said that, if there's some primitive influence that's even subtle, yeah   I mean there could be some synergy there that would not likely be very readily noticeable. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 With this record breaking and possibly even record shattering weak early Nov SPV very likely, what do you and others think that leads us to for Dec? Previously I was thinking based on [mention=13098]snowman19[/mention]+QBO/Nino analogs that Dec overall would likely be mild in the E US outside of possibly NN in the SE. But, I noticed that while Nov warmed considerably on the latest 10 day mean CFS (2-3F) since the runs from ~3 weeks ago, it has also cooled considerably (~2F) for Dec since just 10 days ago. I’m wondering if this is related to the 35-40 day [mention=20019]Stormchaserchuck1[/mention]typical cooling lag for the E US after an SSW this time of year:
 
CFS 10 day mean from 10 days ago: torchy

 
Latest CFS 10 day mean for Dec: ~2F colder E US: not torchy

Right now I see no reason to doubt a warmer than normal December in the northeast/midatlantic based on the extremely strong correlation with El Niño/+QBO over the last 46+ years

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

Still a disconnect between NOAA and the Australian BOM on the official weekly RONI number…..not huge (little over 0.3) but still a difference none the less….CPC has it at +2.5C and the BOM has it at +2.8C




Here’s the traditional ONI anomaly, the absolute temperature remains over 30C, which is also record-breaking:

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Right now I see no reason to doubt a warmer than normal December in the northeast/midatlantic based on the extremely strong correlation with El Niño/+QBO over the last 46+ years

 

...

 

So I'd be careful with the QBO in correlations.   

This actually happened first back in - I think ...- it was 2016, where the QBO abruptly and mysteriously halted ( in the relative sense... It even reversed for a time, mid cycle - something that had never been seen at that magnitude, if ever.

It prompted me to check and sure enough, there's been publication as to the QBO as ( possibly ...) now also being affected by CC.  Yes, even this is not unaffected. 

The study is “The disappearing quasi-biennial oscillation under sustained global warming,” by Fuhai Luo and colleagues, published in Nature Communications.  Jan 29 earlier this year.  It indeed describes the QBO as experiencing unusual disruptions in recent years.

The idea here is that if it is doing this sort of "break down" ... that should enter the question as to how physically it is coupled with the total system - if so ... naturally and quite arithmetically the correlation goes with it.   Just sayn'

[snowman19]

[LakePaste25]

Impressive. -252m GOA low on an ensemble mean 294 hours out! But will it verify?

I expect that low to shift south some as we progress into winter. This will result in lower heights for the SE but an even warmer Canada. 

 

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Only need a few days of a decent pattern as I know you know. I'm clinging to the +3.4 in 12/82 at BWI with 7.2" as proof it can happen, though not necessarily that it has to or will happen. Add to that December climo at BWI is terrible.

P.s. It was 70 on Christmas that year! Lol

Any warm winter month has snow/snowstorm chances here, so its always a wait and see even in the worst months. But Christmas 1982 lives in infamy here, it was 64F at DTW. My mom remembers being super hot at midnight mass (pregnant with me). 

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Bam on board

Often a Thanksgiving cold shot works out when the first half of November is warm. So hopefully that is the case this year as well.

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Any warm winter month has snow/snowstorm chances here, so it’s always a wait and see even in the worst months. But Christmas 1982 lives in infamy here, it was 64F at DTW. My mom remembers being super hot at midnight mass (pregnant with me). 

70s this year

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah, for us anyway. I could still see areas in the upper Midwest that are further removed from CAD effects and coastals threatening records. I did make that distinction awhile ago. Of course places such as International Falls have very cold climates to begin with, so 50+ degrees is far more anomalous there. 

An average NYC December would be +27.3F at INL lol

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

70s this year

I will make sure to bump this!

[LakePaste25]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

An average NYC December would be +27.3F at INL lol

Yeah that’s why in the most classic super Nino setups, the warmest anomalies occur the further north you go. 45-50 is below normal in Birmingham, but a major torch for INL. 

[MJO812]

30 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I will make sure to bump this!

Alot of bump material. Same people forecasted a warm winter last year.

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Alot of bump material. Same people forecasted a warm winter last year.

Well it is a Super Nino so it will be warm, but forecasting 0 snow  for the season and +12 Decembers like some have done here is going way overboard.

[MJO812]

Just now, Keith Central PA said:

Well it is a Super Nino so it will be warm, but forecasting 0 snow  for the season and +12 Decembers like some have done here is going way overboard.

Agree

[ensonerd1233e343]

On 10/25/2026 at 10:09 AM, snowman19 said:

We are 100% on the same page. This background state is extremely hostile to major SSWEs and a sustained weak SPV….lack of a strong MJO 6, 7, 8 propagation (due to the historic El Niño), the very strong low frequency Nino forcing is totally overwhelming and muting the MJO signal, as is typical for super events, a downwelled, very strong and still strengthening +QBO, descending solar off last year’s solar max, high geomag,  +IOD…….

well the pv is weakeing and will stay weak for 2 weeks so yes your stuff matters for midwinter however i struggle to see how its relevant for decemember?

[ensonerd1233e343]

On 10/25/2026 at 3:00 PM, snowman19 said:

I am sticking by the well established trend we’ve had for the last 46+ years…..El Nino/+QBO = warm December in the northeast/midatlantic. It’s not just a strong signal, it’s an EXTREMELY strong signal. All of them ended that way without any exceptions. I see no reason to believe otherwise right now. If I’m wrong then oh well, I’ll own it

oh no it will still be warm the pv wont fully save the ne u.s 

[ensonerd1233e343]

On 10/25/2026 at 3:36 PM, forkyfork said:

why not? we have a decade of climate change on top of the baseline

because + 12f is not happening the pv will eat into some of the warmth imo making a 12 f month very unlikely also other super ninos such as 72/82 did have warm decembers but they were not 2015 level 2015 is in fact an outlier

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

oh no it will still be warm the pv wont fully save the ne u.s 

Thats what some people think on here but welcome to the forum.