2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

Today’s GEFS NAO forecast is even more positive than yesterdays, which itself was much more + than last week’s GEFS: 

Today: gets down to only -0.6 and then quickly rises to +0.5 followed by drop back to 0:

 

Yesterday:

Last week: 

[Keith Central PA]

10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

According to the troll cult, no measurable snow for me this winter. By comparison, Detroit averages 37 days per season with measurable snowfall and in 152 years of record, the least was 15 days (1889-90). I assume this means you shall sprout palm trees by March. Can't wait til verification time!

That's impossible. I mean there's a chance the east coast could be shut out like 97-98, but the upper Midwest?..You'll get snow just by lake effect

[forkyfork]

12 hours ago, forkyfork said:

none of that is going to matter when there's a vortex locked over the northeast pacific extending into the west coast

i want someone to tell me how we manage to stay cold enough long enough for a snowstorm to happen on the east coast 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If NYC doesn't get more snowfall during the coming season than they did in 1997-1998, then I'll hand my site over to @MJO812and dissapear.

2nd worst winter ever in my location in NJ outside of the NYC.  5.5"   01-02 was the worst with 4".  96-97 - 01-02 was the worst 6 year stretch for me.  00-01 was good, but the others were all bad, all different enso's

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

agreed...  I mean probably -  

Here's the thing ( though ) ENSO may not be effective in the hemispheric pattern modulation until the seasonal gradient steepens enough to trigger that forcing.

I've explained this in the past ...whether necessary to do so or not ( hey, that's how I roll! ), that it's not enough merely having these teleconnectors on the map.  They need to be effective, more importantly ...how to know when/if that is the case.

The way they become effecting is through gradient.  That is the metric that decides.  It goes back to fundamental physics.  IF A > B, A --> B 

That's how all nature works.  Period.   If that one fundamental universal aspect were not always the case in the cosmological perpetuity and infinity there would be no restoring force anywhere, and everything would stop.  A must be greater than B, in order for that action of A on B to take place.

So why that is important here. The amount of A had to be significant (enough) bigger than B (gradient) before the "-->" starts happening.  Synergy explodes out of "-->"

This, to the clever reader, is why RONI is both very necessary and works.  Because B is climate change and it is a +D(B) factor.  So.. the A growth has to grow even more to trigger the same "-->"  

Can't be explained any easier...

This ENSO is certainly a warm pig, but .. the world is a bigger warm hog right now. So, as eye-popping as this El Nino is, it is not entirely clear that it is operating/forcing on the system yet due to this over all arithmetic.  And so if it is not yet doing so, there is no synergy.   The synergy would be later on when seasonal/hemispheric gradient gets sufficient and ubiquitous.

ENSO isn't alone in that respect...watch the impact of that gradient between the boiling Kuroshio current and the Kona low west Hawaii and how it may impact the north Pacific along about mid season, which may constructively interfere with other high latitude blocking downstream over NA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i want someone to tell me how we manage to stay cold enough long enough for a snowstorm to happen on the east coast 

That's the thing...only need 24 hours-

[PhiEaglesfan712]

27 minutes ago, FPizz said:

2nd worst winter ever in my location in NJ outside of the NYC.  5.5"   01-02 was the worst with 4".  96-97 - 01-02 was the worst 6 year stretch for me.  00-01 was good, but the others were all bad, all different enso's

Even the ending of 00-01, with the March snowstorm bust, soured that season. But after 01-02 came one of the best 3-year stretches ever...

1997-98 super el nino was followed by 1998-2000 strong la nina. The 2nd year of the strong la nina (1999-2000) had a good few week stretch in January.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Majority of forecasts have the Midwest being thr warmest but to say no snow for the Midwest or great lakes is insane. 

 

Exactly. And remember departures are relative to average. The averages are way colder than the east coast. It can be in the + double digits and snow mid winter. 

[Terpeast]

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/2112536814758121610?s=46
 

warmest subsurface in east pacific is up to 92 F where its 12c above normal. Crazy

[roardog]

14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Exactly. And remember departures are relative to average. The averages are way colder than the east coast. It can be in the + double digits and snow mid winter. 

Yeah. It could be 32F for a low in January here which would be a massive positive departure and still have a snowstorm ongoing.