2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

none of your little indicies are going to stop the displaced pac vortex from flooding the country with marine air all winter

Winter cancel ?

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This is by far the strongest signal for a warm December since 2015

A +12 month with Christmas Day at 70..I doubt we see that but who knows?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This is by far the strongest signal for a warm December since 2015

Yeah, there are years when you just sniff out a warm December. 2015, 2021, and 2023 were pretty obvious. The Weather Channel had these predicted months in advance. This year looks like that way as well. 2026 would make it the 4 warmest Decembers ever in 12 years.

[snowman19]

A +12 month with Christmas Day at 70..I doubt we see that but who knows?

Nowhere in that post did I say as warm as 2015, I said “the strongest warm December signal since 2015”

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Winter cancel ?

I'm sure they'll be winter weather sometime between late November and late March. Just expect much of the winter to have temps above normal. Probably lots of rain.

[Keith Central PA]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Nowhere in that post did I say as warm as 2015, I said “the strongest warm December signal since 2015”

A good indication will be late October and early November, that's when the torch began leading to that insane Decmber month..Lets see if we see that in a few weeks

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

A good indication will be late October and early November, that's when the torch began leading to that insane Decmber month..Lets see if we see that in a few weeks

2021 and 2023 were warm in October and cool in November before torching in December. Then again, those were -QBO years, with 2021 being a la nina. 2023 was a strong nino.

If I remember correctly, 2015 had a very warm late August and September. October was the odd cool month in the bunch.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2021 and 2023 were warm in October and cool in November before torching in December. Then again, those were -QBO years, with 2021 being a la nina. 2023 was a strong nino.

If I remember correctly, 2015 had a very warm late August and September. October was the odd cool month in the bunch.

Like anything, when warmth dominates a pattern, it doesnt mean there will be no cold shots. And its impossible to pinpoint when they will be. I will be surprised if there isnt a spell of cold/snow in the Great Lakes in November.

[EasternLI]

Another big time WWB is in progress currently. This time pushing east of the dateline. First chart are the actual zonal winds.

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

I'm sure they'll be winter weather sometime between late November and late March. Just expect much of the winter to have temps above normal. Probably lots of rain.

All about blocking.  

[LakePaste25]

+EAMT beginning to show up in the models towards the end of october with high SLP east of the Himalayas. Watch out for a jet extension and +PNA after. 

 

[GaWx]

17 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Euro and AI Euro ensembles are switching to -NAO around Oct 22, fwiw, after +NAO for several weeks

GEFS also sees this:

 

 The most similar El Niño Octobers to this forecast of a solid -NAO in late Oct after a mainly +NAO in early to mid Oct are 1976 and 1963 with 2002 the next most similar.

@Stormchaserchuck1

[MJO812]

Not your typical strong El Nino

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not your typical strong El Nino

Thanks, Anthony. One thing I’ll say is that there’s nothing unusual about having a W QBO during a very strong El Niño as:

-1957, 1982, and 2015 had it

-1965, 1972, 1991, and 1997 didn’t

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

The fact that models are trying to usher in the pattern in November when we typically don’t see it until later in December the earliest is actually attributed to it being the strongest Nino on record. 

In the N. Pacific PNA region, October and November combined have higher correlation numbers than December.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

Can that image be re-uploaded, it doesn't load - just a '1.gif'

Here is time sensitive

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

GEFS also sees this:

 

 The most similar El Niño Octobers to this forecast of a solid -NAO in late Oct after a mainly +NAO in early to mid Oct are 1976 and 1963 with 2002 the next most similar.

@Stormchaserchuck1

I think mid-October is most important. The last week of October nears "0" correlation historically. Of course there are only 73 years in the dataset, but it comes out to a 56% opposite correlation (Oct to DJFM mean). Then after the dataset ends in 2020, 5 of the last 5 years have flipped, Oct to the Winter. Pretty interesting. Of course over like 250 years I think all months of the year probably correlate to all months of the year NAO, because the NAO is decadal. 

[bluewave]

It’s no surprise that the July to September WWBs were also stronger than 1997.

 

 

[LakePaste25]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In the N. Pacific PNA region, October and November combined have higher correlation numbers than December.

I think you’re leaning into those NCAR correlation maps too much. Cool season ENSO Nino influence is generally the strongest DJFM. There’s no universe where you can convince me that October or November exhibit better cool season Nino influence than December. 

Also the QBO has its own influence. Westerly QBO tends to be associated with the buildup of Strong East based Ninos, and if we’re relying on correlations, it tends to interfere with what you’d expect during a Nino early on during the season. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

GEFS also sees this:

 

 The most similar El Niño Octobers to this forecast of a solid -NAO in late Oct after a mainly +NAO in early to mid Oct are 1976 and 1963 with 2002 the next most similar.

@Stormchaserchuck1

Decent QBO analogs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Not your typical strong El Nino

Tool bag....always beware of the "forecasting" entities that use gaudy AI visuals...it's a compensation.

[snowman19]

16 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Another big time WWB is in progress currently. This time pushing east of the dateline. First chart are the actual zonal winds.

 

This WWB is record-breaking, much, much stronger and much further east than the massive one we had back in October, 1997. It’s going to spawn another DWKW and cause a big warming burst again in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This WWB is record-breaking, much, much stronger and much further east than the massive one we had back in October, 1997. It’s going to spawn another DWKW and cause a big warming burst again in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4

Must say, you have done an exemplary job with your diagnosis of this El Nino.

Kudos, and genuinely glad to have you back.

[bluewave]

Main October ridge axis continues to remain much further south into the CONUS for an El Niño as we have seen since May. But starting to get some indication that the more typical SW trough will emerge in the means as we move further into mid-October. So the final monthly composite will probably have a split NP low between the Bering Sea and the SW CONUS.

 

 

[snowman19]