2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Terpeast]

If PDO stays negative there are going to be a lot of papers about how PDO and ENSO modulate each other in a warming climate.

But if we look at the WCS chart, the PDO was much more negative at this time than it is now. Last year it was around -1.8 and today about -0.7 give or take. 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If PDO stays negative there are going to be a lot of papers about how PDO and ENSO modulate each other in a warming climate.

But if we look at the WCS chart, the PDO was much more negative at this time than it is now. Last year it was around -1.8 and today about -0.7 give or take. 

you didn't ask for this opinion but personally believe every teleconnector there is should be analyzed and reanalyzed for relative correlation.  RNAO, RAO, RPNA, RWPO, REPO ...  RPDO etc

The implications of a -RPDO with a +RONI is then headachy different than the non-relativistic tandem - 

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CC is a nutshell...yes, the days are obviously warming, but it's more pronounced at night.

There is very little warming of the days during the summer it's mostly a night time thing.  I ran my heat after the middle of August this summer YUCK! I can't stand strong El ninos. Summers of 1991 and 2002 were MUCH better!

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can't find an analog that has forcing as expansive throughout the tropical Pacific during the month of December as this year is forecast.....1983 looks like a good match for January, as it begins to erode a bit on the eastern flank...the image below is reflective of VP on the color scheme, with the contour representing precip rate to really hone in on the best forcing.

1983 will be great match for next summer too- endless summer heat April through September! We had 9 90 plus days in September alone!

On 9/18/2026 at 8:12 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like basin-wide La Nina next year...I'd take my chances with that in combination with an easterly QBO and a move away from geomag peak.

I'm going to love that big heat next summer and no rain, 40 90 degree days and 4 100 degree days in NYC and less than 6 inches of rain for the entire summer and a colder and snowier winter to follow than this one too. La ninas after El nino are the best for all seasons!

[GaWx]

 The global relative AAM remains in historic territory of +4+, which should last into tomorrow. This is probably its highest since Feb of 1998. For comparison, 2023-4 was no more than in the low +1 region on any of the graphs I saved with most of them <+0.5:

[bluewave]

52 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If PDO stays negative there are going to be a lot of papers about how PDO and ENSO modulate each other in a warming climate.

But if we look at the WCS chart, the PDO was much more negative at this time than it is now. Last year it was around -1.8 and today about -0.7 give or take. 

Even if the PDO goes neutral during the winter, relatively speaking it would be much lower than the +1.70 peak in March 2016 and +1.47 in February 1998. The main difference would be the much warmer West Pacific from Japan to south of the Aleutians.

My guess is that this would promote more ridging from east of Japan to perhaps north of Hawaii. Could weaken the Aleutian low and also the low which typically resides near the Southeast US. This  could also potentially shift the STJ location.

Plus we have seen weaker troughs in general over the last decade and stronger ridges. 

Very wide spread between the global SST forecast for the February and 1998. So the PDO values might not fully capture the SST difference. Also  note how much warmer the Atlantic is forecast to be. 
 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

 Further to my global relative AAM post above showing it >+4 since yesterday and to show the huge contrast to the prior El Nino, here are some of the graphs I saved from 2023-4, which all show a much lower amplitude (keep in mind that CFSv2 progs looking out especially past 2 weeks have been biased positive as comparing these graphs to each other clearly show):

11/6/23: +0.15

 

12/16/23: +0.7:

 

12/30/23: +1.15 (highest of any I saved from 2023-4)

1/8/24: +0.15


2/3/24: +0.5

2/21/24: +0.2

 

3/1/24: -0.35

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

it is unlikely that this will have much of an impact on the average temperature for a 90-day season.

No one mentions this part...

[Terpeast]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even if the PDO goes neutral during the winter, relatively speaking it would be much lower than the +1.70 peak in March 2016 and +1.47 in February 1998. The main difference would be the much warmer West Pacific from Japan to south of the Aleutians.

My guess is that this would promote more ridging from east of Japan to perhaps north of Hawaii. Could weaken the Aleutian low and also the low which typically resides near the Southeast US. This  could also potentially shift the STJ location.

Plus we have seen weaker troughs in general over the last decade and stronger ridges. 

Very wide spread between the global SST forecast for the February and 1998. So the PDO values might not fully capture the SST difference. Also  note how much warmer the Atlantic is forecast to be. 
 

 

 

 

Thats also my guess. Weaker goa/aleutian low, and I also wonder if it will be further west allowing for more -epo. But who really knows. I would expect the unexpected.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Thats also my guess. Weaker goa/aleutian low, and I also wonder if it will be further west allowing for more -epo. But who really knows. I would expect the unexpected.

When in doubt regarding the impact of CC, expect a generally warmer outcome with greater volatility. Certain trolls are only going to focus on the first part, which neglects the crucial second part which will make or break seasonal forecasts and dictate how a winter will be remembered.

[GaWx]

OHC of 180-100W appears to currently be at its highest yet (~+3.3):

 To compare, look how low was the same point in Sept of 2023 (only ~+1):

Highest 2023-4 ever got was only just over +1.5:

[LakePaste25]

Still not sold on the PDO having any meaningful influence this cool season. But time will tell. 

[LakePaste25]

Very close to beating the all-time record warmest SST in the Nino 3.4 region.

 

[GaWx]

 I’ve already compared the current Nino to the prior one for both GLAAM and for OHC (like night and day).
 

1. Here’s a similar comparison of PDO:

Current: -0.71

Sept of 2023: ~-2.4 on Sept 19th though these are admittedly volatile as one can see it rose steeply Oct 1-20th:

 

2. SOI: 90 day mean is now way down at ~-22. The mean was down to only -8 for the same 90 day period in 2023. It was -18 in 2015 and -14 in 1997. A rough estimate using monthlies (due to no dailies that far back) for 1982 is -19 to -20.

 The only other 90 day mean as of Sept 20th back to 1876 that realistically could be about as low as 2026’s -22 based on monthlies is 1896 (incoming strong Nino) though that chance is <50% as it is more likely in the -20 to -21 range.

 

 So in summary:

2026: -22

2023: -8

2015: -18

1997: -14

1982: -19 to -20

1896: -20 to -21

 

 The other super-Ninos’ rough estimates: none even close to 2026, 1896, 1982, 2015:

1972: -13

1965: -14

1957: -5

1888: -11

1877: -10

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Is there any good news for snow lovers this winter? Seems like this El Nino is just trending in the wrong direction.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Is there any good news for snow lovers this winter? Seems like this El Nino is just trending in the wrong direction.

I mean it sure doesn't sound like it. And for me this is a 3-year view: too warm Super Nino this year, la nina the next two years=3 more warning level snow troubles for many of us, smh

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Is there any good news for snow lovers this winter? Seems like this El Nino is just trending in the wrong direction.

The STJ will be active. Just need  cold air.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Is there any good news for snow lovers this winter? Seems like this El Nino is just trending in the wrong direction.

I still feel the same way I did earlier this summer....the only real difference is it's more east-based than I expected, but I have said all along I didn't think Modoki index would matter much the year, though I still expect it to leak westward post-peak.