2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It comes down to the position of the ridge, which should be over se Canada, so I doubt it will be too warm in the NE. Maaaaaaybe the se.......

23-24 it was over se Canada, so it was too cool anywhere near that ridge.

Last year it was too cool in the SW, under the ridge.

This should be pretty accurate, so forecast maybe about right for the northeast and could be a hair warm south of about DC....but another trend we have seen is for the ridges to verify south of forecast, which places "too cool" on the able for the NE forecast, if that were to be the case.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This should be pretty accurate, so forecast maybe about right for the northeast and could be a hair warm south of about DC....but another trend we have seen is for the ridges to verify south of forecast, which places "too cool" on the able for the NE forecast, if that were to be the case.

Definitely expect some adjustments over the next 2 months...hopefully not in the wrong direction. After that, it's December with the daily weeklies update! What a drug this hobby can be! Lol

[LakePaste25]

Officially crossed +3C on ONI and +2.5C on RONI!

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Even single model forecasts have been missing the magnitudes of the ridges and the warmth underneath. But this is to be expected due to the much lower resolution and nature of long range forecasts beyond 15 days.

In our rapidly warming climate there have been many more opportunities for the models to be biased too cold than too warm.

So it’s beyond technology of present day weather forecast models to have been able to see the historic 600 dm ridge this week from beyond 5-10 days out.

 

 

Are we really getting such a large 500mb ridge? Surface temps aren't as impressive as H5. That's actually not too far away from the all time US record. I wonder if we are shattering mid-Sept US record?

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Are we really getting such a large 500mb ridge? Surface temps aren't as impressive as H5. That's actually not too far away from the all time US record. I wonder if we are shattering mid-Sept US record?

Chuck,

 I’m thinking that the reason the 2m anomalies aren’t as impressive as the H5 anomalies is probably that there’s a lot of Atlantic origin moist and cooler air in the 2m mix as opposed to drier and hotter land based air.

 Opinions?

[GaWx]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

Latest (0Z of Sep 15th) CFSv2 AAM forecast, which is already at a very high >+3, is like yesterday progging an off the charts extreme/historic? +4+ starting by Sep 19th (earliest in the forecast I’ve ever seen) and lasting at least through Sep 24th:

9/15 12Z CFSv2 consistent with 0Z run having AAM on Sep 19th go to a historical extreme level (+4+):

[raindancewx]

Still following the progression of the four most recent El Ninos, but at much more extreme severity.

The +15F stuff centered over Kansas should wash out a bit by the end of the month, same for the -5 to -10 centered on Oregon.

We're seeing widespread heavy rains this month in New Mexico after very little rain in June-Aug. Will be curious to see how the month finishes locally. But 2015/2018/2023 had fairly wet Septembers as well locally.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Should be interesting to see if we follow the last 3 El Nino's post-2016 PDO-change in October with a SE ridge and an area of real cold.