2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It comes down to the position of the ridge, which should be over se Canada, so I doubt it will be too warm in the NE. Maaaaaaybe the se.......

23-24 it was over se Canada, so it was too cool anywhere near that ridge.

Last year it was too cool in the SW, under the ridge.

This should be pretty accurate, so forecast maybe about right for the northeast and could be a hair warm south of about DC....but another trend we have seen is for the ridges to verify south of forecast, which places "too cool" on the able for the NE forecast, if that were to be the case.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This should be pretty accurate, so forecast maybe about right for the northeast and could be a hair warm south of about DC....but another trend we have seen is for the ridges to verify south of forecast, which places "too cool" on the able for the NE forecast, if that were to be the case.

Definitely expect some adjustments over the next 2 months...hopefully not in the wrong direction. After that, it's December with the daily weeklies update! What a drug this hobby can be! Lol

[LakePaste25]

Officially crossed +3C on ONI and +2.5C on RONI!

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Even single model forecasts have been missing the magnitudes of the ridges and the warmth underneath. But this is to be expected due to the much lower resolution and nature of long range forecasts beyond 15 days.

In our rapidly warming climate there have been many more opportunities for the models to be biased too cold than too warm.

So it’s beyond technology of present day weather forecast models to have been able to see the historic 600 dm ridge this week from beyond 5-10 days out.

 

 

Are we really getting such a large 500mb ridge? Surface temps aren't as impressive as H5. That's actually not too far away from the all time US record. I wonder if we are shattering mid-Sept US record?

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Are we really getting such a large 500mb ridge? Surface temps aren't as impressive as H5. That's actually not too far away from the all time US record. I wonder if we are shattering mid-Sept US record?

Chuck,

 I’m thinking that the reason the 2m anomalies aren’t as impressive as the H5 anomalies is probably that there’s a lot of Atlantic origin moist and cooler air in the 2m mix as opposed to drier and hotter land based air.

 Opinions?