2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

3.4 peak still cooling!

That was an earlier update. Check out the latest: down to +2.9 peak/blues still lower than reds thru NDJ:

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

That was an earlier update. Check out the latest: down to +2.9 peak/blues still lower than reds thru NDJ:

Enso 3.0 down too.

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Enso 3.0 down too.

1+2 also dropping:

[LakePaste25]

So it’s already initialized too low? Toss IMO. 

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

So it’s already initialized too low? Toss IMO. 

Why do you say it’s initialized too low?

[jaxjagman]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

1+2 also dropping:

Be kinda careful what the CFS is showing, the last several days its warmed down into the subsurface to around +10C around 55M,while yes 1+2  could mix out with any MJO moving across the WH,i dont think its gonna work out very well what the CfS is showing

[bluewave]

This El Niño continues to feature the ridge axis much further south than usual like we saw during the summer.

There have been dual ridges near Hudson Bay and the Southeast U.S this September.  

Perhaps the Southeast ridge maxing out at  a record 600dm for September this week is signaling more of a shift north for late September.

The trough along the West Coast and record rains in Southern California have been closer to past El Niño expectations during September.

Overpowering 500mb ridges have been a common recent theme regardless of ENSO state. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

[A-L-E-K]

ready 4 that WAD life

[forkyfork]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

1+2 also dropping:

do you really think it's going to immediately start falling

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

do you really think it's going to immediately start falling

It was initialized at +4.6 for the full Sept averaged out. The mean then has +3.9 for Oct averaged out. There’s no requirement that the highly volatile 1+2 fall immediately for both of these to verify well.

 

[GaWx]

 The AAM yesterday finally for the first time this month exceeded an impressive +3 per the following image after several early Sep runs had had that occurring by Sep 7-8th. The delay is typical due to a + bias of the CFSv2.

 This is saying it will hit an extreme level of +4+ in only ~5 days (~Sep 19th), which is the earliest in its forecast that I’ve ever seen it reach it, and that it will stay +4+ at least through Sep 24th. I’ll keep following these graphs to see if that actually occurs:

[LakePaste25]

Further east and a much greater volume of warm water than 1997 with the 30C isotherm approaching 140W:

 

[GaWx]

 Today’s SOI is at ~-26. That’s the 33rd straight -SOI. The 30/90 day averages are at -17.5/-20.3:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

 

[forkyfork]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

It was initialized at +4.6 for the full Sept averaged out. The mean then has +3.9 for Oct averaged out. There’s no requirement that the highly volatile 1+2 fall immediately for both of these to verify well.

 

yes there is

[GaWx]

 Today’s weekly relative update (which has been NOAA’s official way of measuring these for quite awhile now) for last week cooled in Nino 1+2 from +3.9 to +3.7 and in Nino 4 from +0.1 to -0.1. Meanwhile, Nino 3 warmed from +2.7 to +2.8 while Nino 3.4 warmed from +1.8 to +2.0:

 

02SEP2026         3.9        2.7        1.8        0.1
 09SEP2026         3.7        2.8        2.0       -0.1

 

 This is the comparable week in 1997:

10SEP1997         3.8        2.6        1.8        0.5

 This tells me that 2026 remains more E based than 1997 and was thus for another week the most E based on record for this time of year.

[LakePaste25]

56 minutes ago, GaWx said:

It was initialized at +4.6 for the full Sept averaged out. The mean then has +3.9 for Oct averaged out. There’s no requirement that the highly volatile 1+2 fall immediately for both of these to verify well.

 

To verify sure, there’s no requirement in how one gets there. It’s more about trusting the prognosis to begin with. 

Say it’s 100 in Atlanta. A model says starting tomorrow, we will see the forecast high drop 5 degrees every day for the next 6 days. So in a few days it’ll only get to 80 in Atlanta. 

It’s now tomorrow, and the high didn’t drop 5 degrees. It’s 99. Continue on to the next day, it’s 100 again. Why should I trust what the model is saying 3 weeks out when it’s making such a massive forecast error 2-5 days out? 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

To verify sure, there’s no requirement in how one gets there. It’s more about trusting the prognosis to begin with. 

Say it’s 100 in Atlanta. A model says starting tomorrow, we will see the forecast high drop 5 degrees every day for the next 6 days. So in a few days it’ll only get to 80 in Atlanta. 

It’s now tomorrow, and the high didn’t drop 4 degrees. It’s 99. Continue on to the next day, it’s 100 again. Why should I trust what the model is saying 3 weeks out when it’s making such a massive forecast error 2-5 days out? 

 I and others have been posting what the model trend has been for later this autumn for the various Nino regions (clearly downward), but am not suggesting anyone “trust” what the CFSv2 (or any model for that matter) shows since model progs sometimes verify poorly. Regardless of model imperfections though, a good portion of this and other forecasting discussion threads typically centers around the trends of model output even though the output isn’t typically “trusted”. Models are very useful tools even though they’re not at all crystal balls and thus can bust badly.
 

 I’ve found over the many years that I’ve been following them that model prog trends are quite worthy of discussion since they often give good hints on what’s actually liable to occur down the road regardless of their imperfections.
 

 A good example of another current forecasting discussion thread that follows model trends is this one in the Mid-Atlantic forum that I and some others here also post in and which I recommend others check out:

[csnavywx]

No surprise the CFS is having problems here. It's been having issues maintaining the initialized thermocline slope for a while now -- hence the reason it continues to underforecast Nino 1+2. Some of that may be related to the model's native climo, and/or a bias towards reverting towards stronger easterlies. This is particularly important for a very strong, very east-based event.

[buckeye]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

ready 4 that WAD life

WAD > CAD

I'll take it

[bncho]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I and others have been posting what the model trend has been for later this autumn for the various Nino regions (clearly downward), but am not suggesting anyone “trust” what the CFSv2 (or any model for that matter) shows since model progs sometimes verify poorly. Regardless of model imperfections though, a good portion of this and other forecasting discussion threads typically centers around the trends of model output even though the output isn’t typically “trusted”. Models are very useful tools even though they’re not at all crystal balls and thus can bust badly.
 

 I’ve found over the many years that I’ve been following them that model prog trends are quite worthy of discussion since they often give good hints on what’s actually liable to occur down the road regardless of their imperfections.
 

 A good example of another current forecasting discussion thread that follows model trends is this one in the Mid-Atlantic forum that I and some others here also post in and which I recommend others check out:

bro now it’s infected with forkyfork 

[mitchnick]

September Jamstec. It may not get the forecast right, but it'll at least get you to make an optometrist appointment. 

 

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

September Jamstec. It may not get the forecast right, but it'll at least get you to make an optometrist appointment. 

 

-Sep Jamstec winter forecasts going back to 2017-8 are available at the site to compare to

-Sep ‘26 is vs all Sep forecasts back to ‘17 by a good margin the coldest DJF in the CONUS overall, by a very wide margin the coldest DJF in the E 1/2 overall, and is easily the coldest for the SE, midsouth, S Plains, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. I couldn’t even find a colder one than this for the corridor from Chic to NYC.

-Sep ‘26 is the wettest overall for the E US vs the other Sep DJF forecasts

-June-Sep ‘26 are all very similar in the CONUS for DJF ‘26-7 and are the most consistent of any DJF forecasts back to 2017-8!

 Here’s the ‘23 Sep forecast for DJF for comparison (the 2nd coldest since ‘17): coldest is -0.5 to -1C:

 

Compare that to ‘26: like night and day with coldest -2 to -3C! This would easily be the coldest winter for the SE, Mid-South, and S Plains since 2014-5. Also, note how much colder is the Arctic vs ‘23-4. Keep in mind that the Arctic N of 80N from late May through summer was easily the coldest since 1958 for unknown reasons:

How did Sep JAMSTEC verify in the E US overall?

’17: too warm NE/close SE

’18: close NE/too cold SE

’19: too cold

’20: close NE/too warm SE

’21: N/A

’22: too cold

’23: too cold

’24: too warm

’25: too warm

 

So, for these 8 winters, Jamstec:

-in NE was too warm 3 times, too cold 3 times, and close twice…so neutral bias averaged out

-in SE was too warm 3 times, too cold 4 times, and close once…so, very slight cold bias but pretty neutral overall averaged out 

-Keep in mind that this cold E US forecast is with Jamstec progging an E based super Nino.

[GaWx]

^How well did Jamstec’s May forecast for JJA verify in the CONUS?

May ‘26 Jamstec forecast for summer ‘26:

Actual for summer ‘26: Jamstec forecast excellent in E US; overall CONUS pattern excellent with warmest in SW US and coolest Midwest although it wasn’t quite warm enough in sone of the SW US:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Looks like it predicted the N. Pacific ridge too, which is rare in El Nino. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nice run of -SOI

14 Sep 2026	1012.86	1014.90	-25.91	-17.50	-20.30
13 Sep 2026	1013.56	1015.55	-25.61	-17.44	-20.04
12 Sep 2026	1012.91	1015.60	-29.77	-17.32	-19.89
11 Sep 2026	1012.86	1015.40	-28.88	-16.53	-19.86
10 Sep 2026	1012.90	1013.90	-19.73	-15.51	-19.92
9 Sep 2026	1013.04	1013.40	-15.92	-14.62	-20.08
8 Sep 2026	1012.32	1014.50	-26.74	-14.02	-20.17
7 Sep 2026	1013.24	1015.10	-24.84	-13.46	-20.04
6 Sep 2026	1014.43	1015.70	-21.33	-13.18	-19.91

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

^How well did Jamstec’s May forecast for JJA verify in the CONUS?

May ‘26 Jamstec forecast for summer ‘26:

Actual for summer ‘26: Jamstec forecast excellent in E US; overall CONUS pattern excellent with warmest in SW US and coolest Midwest although it wasn’t quite warm enough in sone of the SW US:

That is impressive....the magnitude of warmth under ridges is always underdone in these modern times, so no biggie....did about as well as can be expected.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I and others have been posting what the model trend has been for later this autumn for the various Nino regions (clearly downward), but am not suggesting anyone “trust” what the CFSv2 (or any model for that matter) shows since model progs sometimes verify poorly. Regardless of model imperfections though, a good portion of this and other forecasting discussion threads typically centers around the trends of model output even though the output isn’t typically “trusted”. Models are very useful tools even though they’re not at all crystal balls and thus can bust badly.
 

 I’ve found over the many years that I’ve been following them that model prog trends are quite worthy of discussion since they often give good hints on what’s actually liable to occur down the road regardless of their imperfections.
 

 A good example of another current forecasting discussion thread that follows model trends is this one in the Mid-Atlantic forum that I and some others here also post in and which I recommend others check out:

Yea, ignoring consensus trends is silly.....precision verification isn't the point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, mitchnick said:

September Jamstec. It may not get the forecast right, but it'll at least get you to make an optometrist appointment. 

 

What's interesting to me is that, like the CANSIPS, it's been correcting east with the El Nino, but it doesn't really make much of a difference in the forecast output. This is consistent with what I have been saying about how orientation isn't going to be a huge deal this season given the magnitude of the event at hand. While I think the JAMSTEC and CANSIPS are overdone, you don't need to convince me that forecasting a season largely devoid of winter weather on the east coast is utter folly.

It's certainly not going to be wall-to-wall cold and snow...but I think we are essentially trading a great deal of MC influence for a canonical east-based first half, and quite frankly, that is a trade I want mother nature to render final approval of, yesterday.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

-Sep Jamstec winter forecasts going back to 2017-8 are available at the site to compare to

-Sep ‘26 is vs all Sep forecasts back to ‘17 by a good margin the coldest DJF in the CONUS overall, by a very wide margin the coldest DJF in the E 1/2 overall, and is easily the coldest for the SE, midsouth, S Plains, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. I couldn’t even find a colder one than this for the corridor from Chic to NYC.

-Sep ‘26 is the wettest overall for the E US vs the other Sep DJF forecasts

-June-Sep ‘26 are all very similar in the CONUS for DJF ‘26-7 and are the most consistent of any DJF forecasts back to 2017-8!

 Here’s the ‘23 Sep forecast for DJF for comparison (the 2nd coldest since ‘17): coldest is -0.5 to -1C:

 

Compare that to ‘26: like night and day with coldest -2 to -3C! This would easily be the coldest winter for the SE, Mid-South, and S Plains since 2014-5. Also, note how much colder is the Arctic vs ‘23-4. Keep in mind that the Arctic N of 80N from late May through summer was easily the coldest since 1958 for unknown reasons:

How did Sep JAMSTEC verify in the E US overall?

’17: too warm NE/close SE

’18: close NE/too cold SE

’19: too cold

’20: close NE/too warm SE

’21: N/A

’22: too cold

’23: too cold

’24: too warm

’25: too warm

 

So, for these 8 winters, Jamstec:

-in NE was too warm 3 times, too cold 3 times, and close twice…so neutral bias averaged out

-in SE was too warm 3 times, too cold 4 times, and close once…so, very slight cold bias but pretty neutral overall averaged out 

-Keep in mind that this cold E US forecast is with Jamstec progging an E based super Nino.

The JAMSTEC pulls of the unicorn scenario that I was discussing with @Typhoon Tip in that it's an east-based event that essentially acts as a Modoki due to the residual cool ENSO influence/Pacific basin warmth biasing the forcing west of where one would expect based on a traditional synthesis of the basin. Very similar to what happened in 2023 when it looked like a Modoki at the surface, but ended up heavily MC oriented....forcing pulled westward. Do I want to bet on that actually happening in the seasonal mean? About as much as I want to be locked in thread alone with @forkyfork, BUT it does confirm my early hedge to advise caution to those forecasting a season largely bereft of winter on the east coast once we get to about mid January and beyond. 

This season appears bipolar to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

JAMSTEC and CANSIPS essentially now shaking hands on the east-based orientation of El Nino this winter, but I do think the hemispheric evolution of the European guidance makes more sense. I think the Japs and Canadiens are overselling that second half flip in the seasonal mean.