2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The MJO continues to avoid the Maritime C and IO like no other time on record:

And here’s the 2 week fcast below. Does anyone know why the MJO is avoiding the IO & MC?

I looked at the other 16 Ninos since 76/7 and found only two others only somewhat similar in JAS:

2015: still had good # in IO

 

1994: still had large # in MC

[LakePaste25]

Just now, GaWx said:

And here’s the 2 week fcast below. Does anyone know why the MJO is avoiding the IO & MC?

I looked at the other 16 Ninos since 76/7 and found only two others somewhat similar:

2015:

 

1994:

The MJO isn’t “avoiding” the IO/MC, it’s being suppressed by the descending branch of the hadley cell triggered by the Nino standing wave whenever it enters that region. If you use VP and OLR plots you can still see the MJO pass thru those regions in a very suppressed state. On the RMM plot, El Niño is overwhelming the signal. 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

The MJO isn’t “avoiding” the IO/MC, it’s being suppressed by the descending branch of the hadley cell triggered by the Nino standing wave whenever it enters that region. If you use VP and OLR plots you can still see the MJO pass thru those regions in a very suppressed state. On the RMM plot, El Niño is overwhelming the signal. 

Why is it overwhelming the signal on RMM now but in 97-8 it was nearly opposite (majority in MC/IO)?

[LakePaste25]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Why is it overwhelming the signal on RMM now but in 97-8 it was nearly opposite (majority in MC/IO)?

This event is more east-based than 1997. 1997 had convection far west in July in particular. 

 

 

[ensonerd1233e343]

6 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Eps, among other models, show a weakening of 850 anomalies as well as the renewal of trades breaking through in days to come; Gefs even more so.

mjo driven

[ensonerd1233e343]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

Probably a dumb question. These are often posted at a time frame thats at the end of a run.  How accurate is it vs what we see at the surface at the end of a run weather wise which we all know is like 2%? 

more accurate because its an el nino so if its showing green in the east central pac and brown in the io you can make a good bet that will happen

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

3.4 peak still cooling!

That was an earlier update. Check out the latest: down to +2.9 peak/blues still lower than reds thru NDJ:

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

That was an earlier update. Check out the latest: down to +2.9 peak/blues still lower than reds thru NDJ:

Enso 3.0 down too.

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Enso 3.0 down too.

1+2 also dropping:

[LakePaste25]

So it’s already initialized too low? Toss IMO. 

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

So it’s already initialized too low? Toss IMO. 

Why do you say it’s initialized too low?

[jaxjagman]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

1+2 also dropping:

Be kinda careful what the CFS is showing, the last several days its warmed down into the subsurface to around +10C around 55M,while yes 1+2  could mix out with any MJO moving across the WH,i dont think its gonna work out very well what the CfS is showing

[bluewave]

This El Niño continues to feature the ridge axis much further south than usual like we saw during the summer.

There have been dual ridges near Hudson Bay and the Southeast U.S this September.  

Perhaps the Southeast ridge maxing out at  a record 600dm for September this week is signaling more of a shift north for late September.

The trough along the West Coast and record rains in Southern California have been closer to past El Niño expectations during September.

Overpowering 500mb ridges have been a common recent theme regardless of ENSO state. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

[A-L-E-K]

ready 4 that WAD life

[forkyfork]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

1+2 also dropping:

do you really think it's going to immediately start falling

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

do you really think it's going to immediately start falling

It was initialized at +4.6 for the full Sept averaged out. The mean then has +3.9 for Oct averaged out. There’s no requirement that the highly volatile 1+2 fall immediately for both of these to verify well.

 

[GaWx]

 The AAM yesterday finally for the first time this month exceeded an impressive +3 per the following image after several early Sep runs had had that occurring by Sep 7-8th. The delay is typical due to a + bias of the CFSv2.

 This is saying it will hit an extreme level of +4+ in only ~5 days (~Sep 19th), which is the earliest in its forecast that I’ve ever seen it reach it, and that it will stay +4+ at least through Sep 24th. I’ll keep following these graphs to see if that actually occurs:

[LakePaste25]

Further east and a much greater volume of warm water than 1997 with the 30C isotherm approaching 140W:

 

[GaWx]

 Today’s SOI is at ~-26. That’s the 33rd straight -SOI. The 30/90 day averages are at -17.5/-20.3:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

 

[forkyfork]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

It was initialized at +4.6 for the full Sept averaged out. The mean then has +3.9 for Oct averaged out. There’s no requirement that the highly volatile 1+2 fall immediately for both of these to verify well.

 

yes there is