2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The MJO continues to avoid the Maritime C and IO like no other time on record:

And here’s the 2 week fcast below. Does anyone know why the MJO is avoiding the IO & MC?

I looked at the other 16 Ninos since 76/7 and found only two others only somewhat similar in JAS:

2015: still had good # in IO

 

1994: still had large # in MC

[LakePaste25]

Just now, GaWx said:

And here’s the 2 week fcast below. Does anyone know why the MJO is avoiding the IO & MC?

I looked at the other 16 Ninos since 76/7 and found only two others somewhat similar:

2015:

 

1994:

The MJO isn’t “avoiding” the IO/MC, it’s being suppressed by the descending branch of the hadley cell triggered by the Nino standing wave whenever it enters that region. If you use VP and OLR plots you can still see the MJO pass thru those regions in a very suppressed state. On the RMM plot, El Niño is overwhelming the signal. 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

The MJO isn’t “avoiding” the IO/MC, it’s being suppressed by the descending branch of the hadley cell triggered by the Nino standing wave whenever it enters that region. If you use VP and OLR plots you can still see the MJO pass thru those regions in a very suppressed state. On the RMM plot, El Niño is overwhelming the signal. 

Why is it overwhelming the signal on RMM now but in 97-8 it was nearly opposite (majority in MC/IO)?

[LakePaste25]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Why is it overwhelming the signal on RMM now but in 97-8 it was nearly opposite (majority in MC/IO)?

This event is more east-based than 1997. 1997 had convection far west in July in particular. 

 

 

[ensonerd1233e343]

6 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Eps, among other models, show a weakening of 850 anomalies as well as the renewal of trades breaking through in days to come; Gefs even more so.

mjo driven

[ensonerd1233e343]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

Probably a dumb question. These are often posted at a time frame thats at the end of a run.  How accurate is it vs what we see at the surface at the end of a run weather wise which we all know is like 2%? 

more accurate because its an el nino so if its showing green in the east central pac and brown in the io you can make a good bet that will happen

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

3.4 peak still cooling!

That was an earlier update. Check out the latest: down to +2.9 peak/blues still lower than reds thru NDJ:

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

That was an earlier update. Check out the latest: down to +2.9 peak/blues still lower than reds thru NDJ:

Enso 3.0 down too.

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Enso 3.0 down too.

1+2 also dropping:

[LakePaste25]

So it’s already initialized too low? Toss IMO.