2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

That 1 map sums up why 23/24 failed as a Niño imho.

Absolutely. I didn't understand that 3 years ago and misdiagnosed it as a Modoki signal.

[GaWx]

The UKMET, which pretty much nailed the 2023 ONI peak of ~+2.0, just updated for Sept: it peaks at ~+3.3 in Nov:

 

 The prior run (Aug) had peaked at only +3.1:

 

Regarding Nino 1+2, it also strengthened:

New run: a little >+4 (this like for 3.4 above is not relative and thus doesn’t taken into account GW well):

 

Prior run (Aug): ~+3.8

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The UKMET, which pretty much nailed the 2023 ONI peak of ~+2.0, just updated for Sept: it peaks at ~+3.3 in Nov:

 

 The prior run (Aug) had peaked at only +3.1:

 

Regarding Nino 1+2, it also strengthened:

New run: a little >+4

 

Prior run (Aug): ~+3.8

How about region 4?

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How about region 4?

Nino 4 on latest UKMET strengthened slightly from a peak of ~+1.3 in Sep on the Aug run to a peak of ~+1.4 in Nov on the new run:

Aug run: peak of ~+1.3 in Sep (non-relative)

 

Sep run: peak of ~+1.4 in Nov (non-relative)