2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's the August run...September is UGLY.

Oh. Do you have a link?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh. Do you have a link?

Check my edit....huge +EPO, despite big -NAO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I like the EURO better than the CANSIPS due to the handling of ENSO and the extra tropical Pacific...as I have been saying....but I don't think it will be that bad. Compromise between the two for snowfall. Probably heavily EURO on temps.

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Check my edit....huge +EPO, despite big -NAO.

Still looks ok for here. Ugly for NE. It will undoubtedly change one way or the other in October.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@BlizzardWxWhen are you going to have the new EURO seasonal uploaded onto your site?

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's the August run...September is UGLY.

Do you know exactly what that scale represents?  Does -1 mean -1 inch a month or for the entire 3 month period? I would guess the entire period. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Do you know exactly what that scale represents?  Does -1 mean -1 inch a month or for the entire 3 month period? I would guess the entire period. 

3 month period.

[jaxjagman]

To muxh crap already going against this winter,You already have the -PDO at the end of August -1.1 which should be substainally positive right now in a strong NINO and the other is the strong WQBO which should have a chance ATM to be a brick SPV

[mitchnick]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

3 month period.

Hell, it has me at 2" under. That would be the most for me in 6 years. I'll take it.

[jaxjagman]

QBO looks just as brutal,its not even relative closer to its own COD where more planetary waves could seemingly effect the SPV,it looks fairly strong right now into winter

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

To muxh crap already going against this winter,You already have the -PDO at the end of August -1.1 which should be substainally positive right now in a strong NINO and the other is the strong WQBO which should have a chance ATM to be a brick SPV

Yea, the PV will probably pretty stout, but there is more than one way to skin a cat....ie produce intervals of high latitude blocking. 

[jaxjagman]

Just to add in 82-97-15,there has never been a SSWE into winter,left that out which should be noted

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Hell, it has me at 2" under. That would be the most for me in 6 years. I'll take it.

Looking at the scale, you are right.....the colors make it look awful, but it's actually pretty reasonable...has me at like 5-6" under average, which is like mid-high 50s. Let me amend earlier what I said about a compromise.....def. prefer the EURO snowfall, though it could be light across the deep interior of NE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, the PV will probably pretty stout, but there is more than one way to skin a cat....ie produce intervals of high latitude blocking. 

 

Just now, jaxjagman said:

Just to add in 82-97-15,there has never been a SSWE into winter,left that out which should be noted

Well aware....

[40/70 Benchmark]

SSW are overrated....they are often feast or famine....again, you don't need the PV to be decimated to get blocking. That is a misconception. W QBO obviously favors a stout PV, which makes it more impervious to heat propagation, so these seasons are prone to stratospheric reflection that can still get the job done. See latter January-early Feb 1983.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I anticipate a very mild first half, with a stout PV, PAC jet and +NAO....a shift should occur during January which will begin as an AK ridge acting as the catalyst for the first real arctic air of the season, and also ultimately act to trigger big NAO blocking in Feb via wave 1 reflection. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

45 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

QBO looks just as brutal,its not even relative closer to its own COD where more planetary waves could seemingly effect the SPV,it looks fairly strong right now into winter

Warm Dec

[michsnowfreak]

The excitement of Fall is getting here. Regardless of what winter brings, Fall with its crisp air and color show is an amazing time of year for many of us. Its the perfect distraction for the pre-winter model circus, especially in a strong Nino year.

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I anticipate a very mild first half, with a stout PV, PAC jet and +NAO....a shift should occur during January which will begin as an AK ridge acting as the catalyst for the first real arctic air of the season, and also ultimately act to trigger big NAO blocking in Feb via wave 1 reflection. 

You're definite talking about IMBY,while you had some freak strorm spawn up into the GOM into Feb of 83 the SE in most parts ran 4C AN

[TriPol]

Everyone should remember... in winter, it only takes one storm. One blizzard, threading the eye of the needle, is all we need to have a great season. 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

You're definite talking about IMBY,while you had some freak strorm spawn up into the GOM into Feb of 83 the SE in most parts ran 4C AN

I assume you know that the warmest month of the winter of 1982-3 in the E US, including SE, was Dec by a wide margin. It was a bonafide torch, the only month like that in the SE to NE. The remainder in the SE was pretty close to normal to slightly BN in some areas.