2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Precip this July-Aug has been very similar to the 2017-2025 composite

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Winter Wizard said:

I'm not sure what, if any implications, this will have going forward or exactly what the root cause is but it's pretty clear August 2026 behaved much differently than other Super Nino cases (1982, 1997, 2015) and was essentially a hotter version of 2023. I don't think there was anyone in the industry who predicted anything close to a recor 

 

 

 

 

 

Right away, you could probably attribute it, at least in part, to much higher national drought coverage than we've seen in other Nino cases since 2000.

 

 

The drought is just a natural cyclical feed back response to the excessively rainy years we have had since 2002. Consider the el nino summers of 1991, 1994 and 2002 to see summer heat during a developing el nino. We are now cycling back to that drier era and after this el Nino is over that will only increase.

[LakePaste25]

OLR is solidly El Niño. Deepest convective anomalies are forecasted to be around 150-160W. Will need to keep an eye out for a N Pac low as we get into September. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Will need to keep an eye out for a N Pac low as we get into September. 

History says ~Sept 25-30 is the time when it should start to develop, then all the time that follows.

Correlation is weakest in Sept, then 2nd weakest in July. Actually June-Sept is like -0.15 H5 correlation max in the NPH region. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

15-16 had a monster N. Pacific trough

That 14-16 was a +PDO spike really gives some weight to the pdo correlation numbers. 

I don't mean the North Pacific pattern per se...I didn't even use 2015 as an extra tropical Pacific analog. I mean that I expect the degree of MC influence to be similar to 2015. The PDO will be much lower.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

OLR is solidly El Niño. Deepest convective anomalies are forecasted to be around 150-160W. Will need to keep an eye out for a N Pac low as we get into September. 

 

New OLR record for so early in an El Niño as this becomes the strongest east based event for the date.

In recent days, the warming has intensified off the coast of #Ecuador and northern #Perú. It is there that

@enfenperu

measures and assesses #ElNiñoCostero. From an atmospheric and oceanic perspective, OLR values are at historic lows for this time of year in the central and eastern Pacific. This is evidence of coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere. The depth of the warm waters to the west of #Galapagos (the last point where we can compare all events), the volume of warm water clearly exceeds that of 1997, while those of 2015 and 2023 were much smaller. This sheds light on the robustness of the event in the eastern Pacific.

 

 

[GaWx]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

New OLR record for so early in an El Niño as this becomes the strongest east based event for the date.

In recent days, the warming has intensified off the coast of #Ecuador and northern #Perú. It is there that

@enfenperu

measures and assesses #ElNiñoCostero. From an atmospheric and oceanic perspective, OLR values are at historic lows for this time of year in the central and eastern Pacific. This is evidence of coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere. The depth of the warm waters to the west of #Galapagos (the last point where we can compare all events), the volume of warm water clearly exceeds that of 1997, while those of 2015 and 2023 were much smaller. This sheds light on the robustness of the event in the eastern Pacific.

 

 

 I like to remind folks when I read x-posts like this this from Brody Cowing that ignore using RONI types of measures that some of this intensity of warming in the Nino regions is due to GW and not purely due to the strength of the Nino, itself.

 When using relative/RONI records put out by NOAA, it’s clear that Nino 1+2 isn’t currently at record highs:

20AUG1997         3.8        2.6        1.8        0.4

19AUG2026         3.2        2.5        1.8        0.0

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I like to remind folks when I read x-posts like this this from Brody Cowing that ignore using RONI types of measures that some of this intensity of warming in the Nino regions is due to GW and not purely due to the strength of the Nino, itself.

 When using RONI records put out by NOAA, it’s clear that Nino 1+2 isn’t currently at record highs:

20AUG1997         3.8        2.6        1.8        0.4

19AUG2026         3.2        2.5        1.8        0.0

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

RONI is a relative metric to other areas of SST warmth. It’s not a realistic gauge of how strong the actual El Niño event is. The planet doesn’t care about relative metrics as the global temperatures are setting records every day now with how extreme this event is becoming.

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

RONI is a relative metric to other areas of SST warmth. It’s not a realistic gauge of how strong the actual El Niño event is. Kind of like relative humidity where the dewpoint is a more accurate measure of the moisture content in the atmosphere.

 Chris, are you disputing NOAA? NOAA is saying as I think you must realize that measuring against average overall worldwide tropical ocean warming is a more realistic gauge of the strength of ENSO events. Why else did they convert to relative measures for official measurements? Also, BoM has switched among other organizations.

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Chris, are you disputing NOAA? NOAA is saying as I think you must realize that measuring against average overall worldwide tropical ocean warming is a more realistic gauge of how strong ENSO events. Why else did they convert to relative measures for official measurements? Also, BoM has switched among other organizations.

NOAA and other agencies maintain both the ONI and RONI. The paper it’s based on developed it more for marginal events like weak La Ninas and El Niños where the WPAC warm pool was extending more influence than the Nina regions. This was not specifically designed for higher end El Niños or La Ninas. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NOAA and other agencies maintain both the ONI and RONI. The paper it’s based on developed it more for marginal events like weak La Ninas where the WPAC warm pool was extending more influence than the Nina regions. This was not specifically designed for higher end El Niños or La Ninas. 

I think it has value for higher end events, but some may interpret it too reductively...IE, lower RONI=Weaker EL Nino=colder. I interpret a lower RONI in a high-end event as more competing forces around the hemisphere than would normally be expected with such a high ONI, like we have spoken about. Having a lower RONI and the ONI in an El Nino is often an ominous sign for NE snow lovers IMHO.

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

RONI is a relative metric to other areas of SST warmth. It’s not a realistic gauge of how strong the actual El Niño event is. The planet doesn’t care about relative metrics as the global temperatures are setting records every day now with how extreme this event is becoming.

It's deeper than that ...

It actually is an attempt to atone for the weakening correlation that's been observed in climate recency. 

Not wanting to get into a whole pedantic tl:dr but correlations exists between two points because there is a physical relationship between them. 

In the context of ENSO, as the whole planet's been warming outside the ENSO girdle with accelerating d(C), the gradient is shallowing.   That shallowing gradient means the (particularly warm ) ENSO phases are not coupling to the  hemisphere(s) outside the <= subtropical regions as deeply.  Climate Prediction Center says it right in their definition, "..RONI is one measure of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods..."

RONI is an attempt to tighten the correlation back up by accounting for the whole systemic warming, which offsets the climate bases of ENSO alone.  So, using the RONI outlook should ( in principle ) show better impact/effectivity scoring.  Heh, it's why Ray and I and others are keenly interested in this espoused ensuing super NINO - it's the best opportunity to date to test that.

Really ... all of this is necessary because the climate change has out paced the usefulness of using a static climate inference to gauge the intensity of warm(cool) ENSO. 

 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it has value for higher end events, but some may interpret it too reductively...IE, lower RONI=Weaker EL Nino=colder. I interpret a lower RONI in a high-end event as more competing forces around the hemisphere than would normally be expected with such a high ONI, like we have spoken about. Having a lower RONI and the ONI in an El Nino is often an ominous sign for NE snow lovers IMHO.

You are talking local patterns and nuances more than the actual strength of the event. The last event in 2023-2024 jumped the planet to a new higher global temperature baseline with a relatively weaker RONI.

The Nino ridge was among the strongest on record with the warmest winter in record for the CONUS and much of North America. It’s debatable whether the weaker Aleutian low was a function of RONI or just a symptom of weaker upper lows in general over the years with both La Ninas and El Niños.

Notice this past winter with a weak La Niña configuration closest to 1995-1996 the ridge overpowered the pattern with smaller 500 mb lows.

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NOAA and other agencies maintain both the ONI and RONI. The paper it’s based on developed it more for marginal events like weak La Ninas and El Niños where the WPAC warm pool was extending more influence than the Nina regions. This was not specifically designed for higher end El Niños or La Ninas. 

According to the following link, NOAA has switched to RONI as its official way of reporting ENSO effective 2/1/2026 and not just for weak ENSO despite them still maintaining the ONI dataset:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You are talking local patterns and nuances more than the actual strength of the event. The last event in 2023-2024 jumped the planet to a new higher global temperature baseline with a relatively weaker RONI.

The Nino ridge was among the strongest on record with the warmest winter in record for the CONUS and much of North America. It’s debatable whether the weaker Aleutian low was a function of RONI or just a symptom of weaker upper lows in general over the years with both La Ninas and El Niños.

Notice this past winter with a weak La Niña configuration closest to 1995-1996 the ridge overpowered the pattern with smaller 500 mb lows.

Like I just said, competing forces....it's why 2023 had MC tendencies.

Last season wasn't as favorable as 1995....you keep acting as though CC was the only difference. It wasn't.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's deeper than that ...

It actually is an attempt to atone for the weakening correlation that's been observed in climate recency. 

Not wanting to get into a whole pedantic tl:dr but correlations exists between two points because there is a physical relationship between them. 

In the context of ENSO, as the whole planet's been warming outside the ENSO girdle with accelerating d(C), the gradient is shallowing.   That shallowing gradient means the (particularly warm ) ENSO phases are not coupling to the  hemisphere(s) outside the <= subtropical regions as deeply.  Climate Prediction Center says it right in their definition, "..RONI is one measure of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods..."

RONI is an attempt to tighten the correlation back up by accounting for the whole systemic warming, which offsets the climate bases of ENSO alone.  So, using the RONI outlook should ( in principle ) show better impact/effectivity scoring.  Heh, it's why Ray and I and others are keenly interested in this espoused ensuing super NINO - it's the best opportunity to date to test that.

Really ... all of this is necessary because the climate change has out paced the usefulness of using a static climate inference to gauge the intensity of warm(cool) ENSO. 

 

Right...weakening correlation due to the the ambient warmth washing it out, which is why it's facing more hemispheric competion.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like I just said, competing forces....it's why 2023 had MC tendencies.

Last season wasn't as favorable as 1995....you keep acting as though CC was the only difference. It wasn't.

 

Last season was the best this new much warmer climate could do as compared to the 95-96. More warmth was a factor in the NAO reversing so quickly in March as corals studies have found bigger NAO and AO swings from one state to another as the climate has warmed. Much less available cold made last winter the 2nd warmest for the CONUS. 

[EasternLI]

Love that gradients were mentioned. Everything weather related needs gradients in order to operate, after all. I'm going to take this opportunity to add a PDO illustration to that same context. Because if you really dig deep into the research on it. You will find that the most important feature of that in a sst sense is the warm or cold tongue. Remember that when the PDO is in phase with enso, that enso effects are amplified. Out of phase, the opposite occurs to a degree. It is the increase or decrease in the gradients through latitude sst that contributes to this. You can see in the image below how a negative PDO(opposite of picture) in conjunction with El Niño offers a relaxed sst gradient by latitude. That makes it all the more interesting to see how this year evolves.

[soadforecasterx]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Last season was the best this new much warmer climate could do as compared to the 95-96. More warmth was a factor in the NAO reversing so quickly in March as corals studies have found bigger NAO and AO swings from one state to another as the climate has warmed. Much less available cold made last winter the 2nd warmest for the CONUS. 

That was not the case on the east coast for last winter though. We had one of the coldest stretches since the 70s right after a massive winter storm.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Last season was the best this new much warmer climate could do as compared to the 95-96. More warmth was a factor in the NAO reversing so quickly in March as corals studies have found bigger NAO and AO swings from one state to another as the climate has warmed. Much less available cold made last winter the 2nd warmest for the CONUS. 

So weren't the solar cycle and the state of the northern Atlantic....both of which were much different from 1996. Chuck and I were both pretty accurate with that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

That was not the case on the east coast for last winter though. We had one of the coldest stretches since the 70s right after a massive winter storm.  

This is the problem with any issue as politicized as CC....no one is ever going to "win", or change their mind because the data is always going to be shoehorned into a specific ideology. We could end up somehow having this winter be colder than last year and I would bet my life they would find a way to link it to CC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I do think the increasing predisposition towards +NAO and +WPO is in part a byproduct of CC, but it's not the only factor...there are other reasons why 2025 was not as favorable as 1995. That being said, would an identical pattern be as cold? No...agree, there.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

That was not the case on the east coast for last winter though. We had one of the coldest stretches since the 70s right after a massive winter storm.  

The cold in the East this past winter was weak sauce compared the the hard winters of the 1970s.

[LakePaste25]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The cold in the East this past winter was weak sauce compared the the hard winters of the 1970s.

Yeah other than that stretch in late January, the last 2 winters featured just normal winter cold that we used to get much more frequently. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah other than that stretch in late January, the last 2 winters featured just normal winter cold that we used to get much more frequently. 

You understand both can be true, right? It's not as cold as the 1970s...got it.....but last season was not as conducive to sustained cold and high latitude blocking as 1995.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

At the end of the day, the winter of 2025-26 was a warmer version of 2014-15. The 10+ departures in the West were much more widespread, and the cold in the East wasn't as strong or as long.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

At the end of the day, the winter of 2025-26 was a warmer version of 2014-15. The 10+ departures in the West were much more widespread, and the cold in the East wasn't as strong or as long.

Yea, I Iike that analog better from a +TNH (High solar/E QBO) perspective....2015 would have been my top polar analog had it been cool ENSO, but wish I had still used it. I'm not going to be as ENSO restrictive with weaker events moving forward, especially as ENSO continues to wash out some. The extra Pacific was much more hostile in general than 2015, which is somewhat related to ENSO, but def. a great polar analog.

[LakePaste25]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You understand both can be true, right? It's not as cold as the 1970s...got it.....but last season was not as conducive to sustained cold and high latitude blocking as 1995.

It was only 0.3 degrees warmer than 95-96 and 10-11. But the fact that 10-11 had much more -PNA shows that we need a more ideal pacific to produce the same cold. 

 

[so_whats_happening]

Quick update for virtually all of July and August

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

It was only 0.3 degrees warmer than 95-96 and 10-11. But the fact that 10-11 had much more -PNA shows that we need a more ideal pacific to produce the same cold. 

 

Where is that? Nationally last year wasn't close to 1995-1996.

Here is the PNA from last winter DJFM: 

2026  -1.41 0.79  -0.56  -1.74 

That is very favorable?? It was the orientation of the PV that saved us, not the PNA. Very predictable outcome considering the high solar/extreme easterly QBO predisposition towards intense mid winter +TNH regimes. In fact, strong +TNH is often accompanied by RNA. It did coincide with an interval of PNA from mid January into February in this case, which probably heightened it, but the PNA was not last winter's defining teleconnection.

Strong +TNH season.