40/70 Benchmark Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: What was your Winter forecast for the Pacific in 2023? Index Value Predicted '23-'24 DM Value Range Actual '23-'24 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -.30 to -.60 -1.51 Biased .91 positive Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) -.35 to -.65 +.55 Biased .90 negative ENSO OND 1.7-1.9 ONI EMI: .6 - .8 (West Tilt Basin-Wide) NDJ 2.0 EMI: .30 .01 degree too cool and one month too early. Biased .30 West (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) +.30 to +.60 -.04 Biased .34 positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) -.30 to -.60 -.10 Biased .20 negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) +.10 to -.20 +.76 Biased .66 negative 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Index Value Predicted '23-'24 DM Value Range Actual '23-'24 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -.30 to -.60 -1.51 Biased .91 positive Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) -.35 to -.65 +.55 Biased .90 negative ENSO OND 1.7-1.9 ONI EMI: .6 - .8 (West Tilt Basin-Wide) NDJ 2.0 EMI: .30 .01 degree too cool and one month too early. Biased .30 West (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) +.30 to +.60 -.04 Biased .34 positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) -.30 to -.60 -.10 Biased .20 negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) +.10 to -.20 +.76 Biased .66 negative Wow, you forecasted a -PNA in 23-24. Congrats on that, I think that's a really good forecast. PNA region ended up having an anomaly of +45dm for DJFM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Wow, you forecasted a -PNA in 23-24. Congrats on that, I think that's a really good forecast. PNA region ended up having an anomaly of +45dm for DJFM Yea, the outlook overall was garbage, though...I misinterpreted the El Nino adjoining the west-warm pool as more of a Modoki influence, rather than MC, which is what it was. I learned so much from that bust, and from Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago At least the start of September will show some similarity to 2023 and 2015. But the forecast is for a stronger Southeast ridge this time. Matches the summer theme of stronger mid-latitude 500 mb ridging than past developing super El Ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, the latest CFS is how you watch 'ole man winter swallow a pistol.....brutal combination of east-based El Nino overlaid onto residual MC regime....look familiar? It should- 19 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's a SE ridge pattern in the cold season. Will be interesting to see if we get a SE Canada ridge like is typical of Nino's or if the US pattern gets washed out to something different this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 59 minutes ago Share Posted 59 minutes ago On 8/25/2026 at 11:09 PM, jaxjagman said: I agree with you,it dont seem like when the monthly updates you should see much change with a typhoon going into East China the next couple days.Look at how warm those SST's are east Japan into the Pac.Its rare in a strong NINO to even witness this Yeah, rapid warming of the SSTs near Japan as the main ridge axis migrated west from the July position north of Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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