2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah. Feel the same way. Especially as we get into the SON period. Certainly will be interesting to watch unfold. This is such an impressive chart. In the context of every other el nino event. Minus 10 is bonkers on the VP 200 charts for a 30 day mean of obs. 

How significant is the PDO though if the El Nino does not couple with N. Pacific this Fall? 

[EasternLI]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

How significant is the PDO though if the El Nino does not couple with N. Pacific this Fall? 

Significant IMO. Really interesting year with that. I just feel like the magnitude of this event prevails through the autumn. Certainly interesting to see what happens!

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

PNA has been negative 6 straight months, and Aug looks to come in around 0.0. I wouldn't assume classic El Nino N. Pacific pattern this Winter. I researched it once and Weak ENSO had 40dm, Mod ENSO 70dm, Strong ENSO 100dm, Super ENSO 120dm. I think we are ~40dm this Winter. 

I went with a preliminary .35 to .65 for DJFM mean PNA, and -.02 to .27 PDO. I feel comfortable with that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You can never get a 500mb forecast composite to look perfect, though....especially considering CC because you have to use analog years to construct them. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I'm not sure if anyone pointed this out yet, but we're experiencing a very rapid upwelling of cold water in the western Pacific Ocean, which is literally pushing the warm Kelvin wave onto the South American continent. As a result, the warm water in the east is sinking deeper. This is why we are in for a strong la nina in 2027-28 or 2028-29 (depending on how quickly the current el nino dissipates) - like in 1998-2000, which immediately followed the 1997-98 el nino.

As you can see, the strong la nina years of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 (which correspond to the dark blue strips in 1998 and 1999) was the result of the last upwelling. Also, our last strong la nina was in 2010-11 (which corresponds to the dark blue strip in 2010). If we don't have a strong la nina following this el nino event, it will be the longest gap between strong la ninas since prior to the 1955-56 event.

[GaWx]

 The NOAA weekly SSTa’s have been ~unchanged the last 2 weeks in all Nino regions except there has been 0.3 of cooling in Nino 4. This Nino 4 cooling jibes well with this OISST Nino 4 graph:

 

 They kept 3.4 at +1.8, which continues to be ~0.4 cooler than what this OISST has been suggesting:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm not sure if anyone pointed this out yet, but we're experiencing a very rapid upwelling of cold water in the western Pacific Ocean, which is literally pushing the warm Kelvin wave onto the South American continent. As a result, the warm water in the east is sinking deeper. This is why we are in for a strong la nina in 2027-28 or 2028-29 (depending on how quickly the current el nino dissipates) - like in 1998-2000, which immediately followed the 1997-98 el nino.

As you can see, the strong la nina years of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 (which correspond to the dark blue strips in 1998 and 1999) was the result of the last upwelling. Also, our last strong la nina was in 2010-11 (which corresponds to the dark blue strip in 2010). If we don't have a strong la nina following this el nino event, it will be the longest gap between strong la ninas since prior to the 1955-56 event.

Once we get past cool ENSO episode, it's lights-out for the multidecadal Pac cold phase.