2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[bluewave]

Finally starting to see elements of the 2023, 2015, and 1997 late August into September patterns show up in the analog composite. 
 

 

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Finally starting to see elements of the 2023, 2015, and 1997 late August into September patterns show up in the analog composite. 
 

 

That's a crazy list of analog years with no rhyme or reason if you just consider Enso.

[EasternLI]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does anyone have the latest forecast H85 zonal wind anomaly forecast for 5N to 5S? None of the ones that I usually access are updated...

 

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does anyone have the latest forecast H85 zonal wind anomaly forecast for 5N to 5S? None of the ones that I usually access are updated...

This link has it from the Cfs2 around 2/3's down the page.

https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

There's also a link above the 850 forecast for additional info:

https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/

[EasternLI]

Gefs just finished updating for 6z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, EasternLI said:

 

Thank you!

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Finally starting to see elements of the 2023, 2015, and 1997 late August into September patterns show up in the analog composite. 
 

 

Your research on these patterns is a life-saver in terms of time trying to do these blogs with 4 little kids. haha.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

That early part of September 1997 must have been record cold in the Northeast US. All I remember is that early September 2015 and early September 2023 were really hot.

[michsnowfreak]

25 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That early part of September 1997 must have been record cold in the Northeast US. All I remember is that early September 2015 and early September 2023 were really hot.

Sept 1997 looks cooler than avg but nothing crazy. 

[GaWx]

 During the last 90 days, 86 of them were in MJO phases 6, 7, 8, or 1! The other 4 were only barely into phase 5 (inside circle) and since records started in 1974 there’s no instance of a 90 day period with >95% of the days in either the WPAC or the W Hem/Africa:

 

 The closest is 7/25/15-10/22/15, which had 81 of the 90 days (90%) in 6-7-8-1:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Finally starting to see elements of the 2023, 2015, and 1997 late August into September patterns show up in the analog composite. 
 

 

I don't think -PNA is an El Nino pattern. You are getting randomness because September is the weakest month of the year for ENSO correlation across the Pacific-North America region

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3rd straight day of <-30 SOI

22 Aug 2026	1013.39	1016.75	-30.23	-19.36	-22.39
21 Aug 2026	1013.48	1017.25	-32.71	-18.78	-22.41
20 Aug 2026	1013.20	1017.40	-35.32	-17.97	-22.25

[OSUmetstud]

The reduction from traditional nino to relative nino seems different on various sources. 

The August forecast from the ecmwf had about a 0.8 reduction between the 2. The current noaa weekly sst data is reducing the relative nino by about 0.9 compared to traditional (1.8 v. 2.7). BOM has 2.3 v. 2.8 and the cyclonicwx site has 2.2 v. 2.6. I dont think this means much to the weather or the climate generally but could make a difference when it comes to records and such. 

Its probably something to do with sst data set differences and perhaps some differences on how it adjusts for the 50 year variance. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

The reduction from traditional nino to relative nino seems different on various sources. 

The August forecast from the ecmwf had about a 0.8 reduction between the 2. The current noaa weekly sst data is reducing the relative nino by about 0.9 compared to traditional (1.8 v. 2.7). BOM has 2.3 v. 2.8 and the cyclonicwx site has 2.2 v. 2.6. I dont think this means much to the weather or the climate generally but could make a difference when it comes to records and such. 

Its probably something to do with sst data set differences and perhaps some differences on how it adjusts for the 50 year variance. 

I think it's significant in the absolute sense in that a scenario where the ONI is higher is indicative of a different Pacific landscape than if the RONI were higher, however, I agree regarding the data source variation....it's likely just data set differences. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It's interesting that recent 2ndary seasonal peaks in the tropical temperature means are now as high as  the primaries were just 15 years ago... and this one appears poised to go ridic

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's interesting that recent 2ndary seasonal peaks in the tropical temperature means are now as high as  the primaries were just 15 years ago... and this one appears poised to go ridic

I wonder if this has to do with climate change? That is, if the climate were actually changing....

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I finally got the IRI links to work:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^IRI mean near +1.0c for AMJ is pretty interesting

The average El Nino >+0.5 ONI for the first AMJ averaged out to be +0.18 the following AMJ (16 analogs). (This last AMJ was +0.9)

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

This is why the pattern in the mid latitudes hasn't been more redolent of El Nino this summer.

 El Niño in the tropics, of course:

 

 

Mid latitudes, not so much.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I finally got the IRI links to work:

I haven't been having an issue.

[LakePaste25]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

This is why the pattern in the mid latitudes hasn't been more redolent of El Nino this summer.

 El Niño in the tropics, of course:

 

 

Mid latitudes, not so much.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mid latitudes in the northern hemisphere, that is. It is coupling fine in the southern hemisphere. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Mid latitudes in the northern hemisphere, that is. It is coupling fine in the southern hemisphere. 

Right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Mid latitudes in the northern hemisphere, that is. It is coupling fine in the southern hemisphere. 

Yup, and I do think it will get more redolent of El Niño in the mid latitudes throughout the n hemisphere. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Early work on the Extra tropical Pacific is done.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/08/preliminary-assessment-of-extratropical.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pretty good consensus between my composites.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder if this has to do with climate change? That is, if the climate were actually changing....

It’s more than that 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s more than that 

I'm just being a d1ck. What other factors do you feel are influencing it?

[40/70 Benchmark]

@Stormchaserchuck1I understand how the low the heights are in the N Pacific and into the SE CONUS on that comppsite...this is just preliminary. I'll probably make an adjustment to the final composite to address that, especially if El Niño continues to struggle to couple throughout the mid latitudes of the N Hem well into the fall...like subtracting a very early climo period rather than 1951-2020.

[EasternLI]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yup, and I do think it will get more redolent of El Niño in the mid latitudes throughout the n hemisphere. 

Yeah. Feel the same way. Especially as we get into the SON period. Certainly will be interesting to watch unfold. This is such an impressive chart. In the context of every other el nino event. Minus 10 is bonkers on the VP 200 charts for a 30 day mean of obs. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Stormchaserchuck1I understand how the low the heights are in the N Pacific and into the SE CONUS on that comppsite...this is just preliminary. I'll probably make an adjustment to the final composite to address that, especially if El Niño continues to struggle to couple throughout the mid latitudes of the N Hem well into the fall...like subtracting a very early climo period rather than 1951-2020.

PNA has been negative 6 straight months, and Aug looks to come in around 0.0. I wouldn't assume classic El Nino N. Pacific pattern this Winter. I researched it once and Weak ENSO had 40dm, Mod ENSO 70dm, Strong ENSO 100dm, Super ENSO 120dm. I think we are ~40dm this Winter.