2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[bluewave]

Finally starting to see elements of the 2023, 2015, and 1997 late August into September patterns show up in the analog composite. 
 

 

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Finally starting to see elements of the 2023, 2015, and 1997 late August into September patterns show up in the analog composite. 
 

 

That's a crazy list of analog years with no rhyme or reason if you just consider Enso.

[EasternLI]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does anyone have the latest forecast H85 zonal wind anomaly forecast for 5N to 5S? None of the ones that I usually access are updated...

 

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does anyone have the latest forecast H85 zonal wind anomaly forecast for 5N to 5S? None of the ones that I usually access are updated...

This link has it from the Cfs2 around 2/3's down the page.

https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

There's also a link above the 850 forecast for additional info:

https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/

[EasternLI]

Gefs just finished updating for 6z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, EasternLI said:

 

Thank you!

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Finally starting to see elements of the 2023, 2015, and 1997 late August into September patterns show up in the analog composite. 
 

 

Your research on these patterns is a life-saver in terms of time trying to do these blogs with 4 little kids. haha.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

That early part of September 1997 must have been record cold in the Northeast US. All I remember is that early September 2015 and early September 2023 were really hot.

[michsnowfreak]

25 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That early part of September 1997 must have been record cold in the Northeast US. All I remember is that early September 2015 and early September 2023 were really hot.

Sept 1997 looks cooler than avg but nothing crazy. 

[GaWx]

 During the last 90 days, 86 of them were in MJO phases 6, 7, 8, or 1! The other 4 were only barely into phase 5 (inside circle) and since records started in 1974 there’s no instance of a 90 day period with >95% of the days in either the WPAC or the W Hem/Africa:

 

 The closest is 7/25/15-10/22/15, which had 81 of the 90 days (90%) in 6-7-8-1:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Finally starting to see elements of the 2023, 2015, and 1997 late August into September patterns show up in the analog composite. 
 

 

I don't think -PNA is an El Nino pattern. You are getting randomness because September is the weakest month of the year for ENSO correlation across the Pacific-North America region

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3rd straight day of <-30 SOI

22 Aug 2026	1013.39	1016.75	-30.23	-19.36	-22.39
21 Aug 2026	1013.48	1017.25	-32.71	-18.78	-22.41
20 Aug 2026	1013.20	1017.40	-35.32	-17.97	-22.25

[OSUmetstud]

The reduction from traditional nino to relative nino seems different on various sources. 

The August forecast from the ecmwf had about a 0.8 reduction between the 2. The current noaa weekly sst data is reducing the relative nino by about 0.9 compared to traditional (1.8 v. 2.7). BOM has 2.3 v. 2.8 and the cyclonicwx site has 2.2 v. 2.6. I dont think this means much to the weather or the climate generally but could make a difference when it comes to records and such. 

Its probably something to do with sst data set differences and perhaps some differences on how it adjusts for the 50 year variance. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

The reduction from traditional nino to relative nino seems different on various sources. 

The August forecast from the ecmwf had about a 0.8 reduction between the 2. The current noaa weekly sst data is reducing the relative nino by about 0.9 compared to traditional (1.8 v. 2.7). BOM has 2.3 v. 2.8 and the cyclonicwx site has 2.2 v. 2.6. I dont think this means much to the weather or the climate generally but could make a difference when it comes to records and such. 

Its probably something to do with sst data set differences and perhaps some differences on how it adjusts for the 50 year variance. 

I think it's significant in the absolute sense in that a scenario where the ONI is higher is indicative of a different Pacific landscape than if the RONI were higher, however, I agree regarding the data source variation....it's likely just data set differences. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It's interesting that recent 2ndary seasonal peaks in the tropical temperature means are now as high as  the primaries were just 15 years ago... and this one appears poised to go ridic

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's interesting that recent 2ndary seasonal peaks in the tropical temperature means are now as high as  the primaries were just 15 years ago... and this one appears poised to go ridic

I wonder if this has to do with climate change? That is, if the climate were actually changing....